Flash Flood Watch 19, NWS Albuquerque, NM

066 
WGUS65 KABQ 030352
FFAABQ

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
952 PM MDT Mon Aug 2 2021

NMZ203-204-206-208-031200-
/O.CON.KABQ.FF.A.0018.000000T0000Z-210803T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Far Northwest Highlands-Northwest Highlands-West Central
Mountains-Southwest Mountains-
952 PM MDT Mon Aug 2 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM MDT TUESDAY...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of north central and west central New Mexico, including 
  the following areas, in north central New Mexico, Far Northwest 
  Highlands and Northwest Highlands. In west central New Mexico, 
  Southwest Mountains and West Central Mountains.

* Until 6 AM MDT Tuesday.

* Abundant moisture will support scattered to numerous slow-moving 
  thunderstorms through late tonight. Storm motions will remain slow 
  and erratic. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are likely with the 
  strongest storms. This will increase the threat of flash flooding. 
  Recent burn scars will be especially susceptible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action 
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

NMZ210>215-031200-
/O.CON.KABQ.FF.A.0018.000000T0000Z-210804T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Tusas Mountains Including Chama-Jemez Mountains-Glorieta Mesa
Including Glorieta Pass-Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains-East Slopes Sangre de Cristo
Mountains-
952 PM MDT Mon Aug 2 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* A portion of north central New Mexico, including the following 
  areas, East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains, Glorieta Mesa 
  Including Glorieta Pass, Jemez Mountains, Northern Sangre de 
  Cristo Mountains, Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains and Tusas 
  Mountains Including Chama.

* Through late Tuesday night.

* Abundant moisture will support scattered to numerous slow-moving 
  thunderstorms through late Tuesday night. Storm motions will 
  remain slow and erratic. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are 
  likely with the strongest storms. This will increase the threat of 
  flash flooding. Recent burn scars will be especially susceptible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action 
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

NMZ227>232-031200-
/O.CON.KABQ.FF.A.0019.210803T1900Z-210804T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Johnson and Bartlett Mesas Including Raton Pass-Far Northeast
Highlands-Northeast Highlands-Union County-Harding County-Eastern
San Miguel County-
952 PM MDT Mon Aug 2 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON 
THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* A portion of northeast New Mexico, including the following areas, 
  Eastern San Miguel County, Far Northeast Highlands, Harding 
  County, Johnson and Bartlett Mesas Including Raton Pass, Northeast 
  Highlands and Union County.

* From Tuesday afternoon through late Tuesday night.

* Abundant moisture will support scattered to numerous slow-moving 
  thunderstorms from midday Tuesday through late Tuesday night. 
  Storm motions will remain slow and erratic. Rainfall amounts of 1 
  to 2 inches are likely with the strongest storms. This will 
  increase the threat of flash flooding.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action 
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

15

868 
WGUS65 KABQ 030825
FFAABQ

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
225 AM MDT Tue Aug 3 2021

NMZ203-204-206-208-030930-
/O.CAN.KABQ.FF.A.0018.000000T0000Z-210803T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Far Northwest Highlands-Northwest Highlands-West Central
Mountains-Southwest Mountains-
225 AM MDT Tue Aug 3 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

The Flash Flood Watch for portions of north central and west central 
New Mexico, including the following areas, in north central New 
Mexico, Far Northwest Highlands and Northwest Highlands. In west 
central New Mexico, Southwest Mountains and West Central Mountains. 
has been cancelled.

Flooding is no longer expected to pose a threat. Please continue to 
heed remaining road closures.

$$

NMZ210>215-031800-
/O.CON.KABQ.FF.A.0018.000000T0000Z-210804T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Tusas Mountains Including Chama-Jemez Mountains-Glorieta Mesa
Including Glorieta Pass-Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains-East Slopes Sangre de Cristo
Mountains-
225 AM MDT Tue Aug 3 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* A portion of north central New Mexico, including the following 
  areas, East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains, Glorieta Mesa 
  Including Glorieta Pass, Jemez Mountains, Northern Sangre de 
  Cristo Mountains, Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains and Tusas 
  Mountains Including Chama.

* Through late tonight.

* Abundant moisture will support scattered to numerous slow-moving 
  thunderstorms through late Tuesday night. Storm motions will 
  remain slow and erratic. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are 
  likely with the strongest storms. This will increase the threat of 
  flash flooding. Recent burn scars will be especially susceptible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action 
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

NMZ227>232-031800-
/O.CON.KABQ.FF.A.0019.210803T1900Z-210804T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Johnson and Bartlett Mesas Including Raton Pass-Far Northeast
Highlands-Northeast Highlands-Union County-Harding County-Eastern
San Miguel County-
225 AM MDT Tue Aug 3 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON 
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* A portion of northeast New Mexico, including the following areas, 
  Eastern San Miguel County, Far Northeast Highlands, Harding 
  County, Johnson and Bartlett Mesas Including Raton Pass, Northeast 
  Highlands and Union County.

* From 1 PM MDT this afternoon through late tonight.

* Abundant moisture will support scattered to numerous slow-moving 
  thunderstorms from midday Tuesday through late Tuesday night. 
  Storm motions will remain slow and erratic. Rainfall amounts of 1 
  to 2 inches are likely with the strongest storms. This will 
  increase the threat of flash flooding, especially over recent burn 
  scars.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action 
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

CHJ

194 
WGUS65 KABQ 031748
FFAABQ

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1148 AM MDT Tue Aug 3 2021

NMZ210>215-040415-
/O.CON.KABQ.FF.A.0018.000000T0000Z-210804T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Tusas Mountains Including Chama-Jemez Mountains-Glorieta Mesa
Including Glorieta Pass-Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains-East Slopes Sangre de Cristo
Mountains-
1148 AM MDT Tue Aug 3 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* A portion of north central New Mexico, including the following 
  areas, East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains, Glorieta Mesa 
  Including Glorieta Pass, Jemez Mountains, Northern Sangre de 
  Cristo Mountains, Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains and Tusas 
  Mountains Including Chama.

* Through late tonight.

* Abundant moisture will support scattered to numerous slow-moving 
  thunderstorms through late tonight. Storm motions will remain slow 
  and erratic. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are likely with the 
  strongest storms. This will increase the threat of flash flooding. 
  Recent burn scars will be especially susceptible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action 
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

NMZ227>232-040415-
/O.CON.KABQ.FF.A.0019.210803T1900Z-210804T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Johnson and Bartlett Mesas Including Raton Pass-Far Northeast
Highlands-Northeast Highlands-Union County-Harding County-Eastern
San Miguel County-
1148 AM MDT Tue Aug 3 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* A portion of northeast New Mexico, including the following areas, 
  Eastern San Miguel County, Far Northeast Highlands, Harding 
  County, Johnson and Bartlett Mesas Including Raton Pass, Northeast 
  Highlands and Union County.

* Through late tonight.

* Abundant moisture will support scattered to numerous slow-moving 
  thunderstorms through late tonight. Storm motions will remain slow 
  and erratic. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are likely with the 
  strongest storms. This will increase the threat of flash flooding.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action 
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

Guyer

246 
WGUS65 KABQ 040351
FFAABQ

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
951 PM MDT Tue Aug 3 2021

NMZ227>232-041200-
/O.CON.KABQ.FF.A.0019.000000T0000Z-210804T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Johnson and Bartlett Mesas Including Raton Pass-Far Northeast
Highlands-Northeast Highlands-Union County-Harding County-Eastern
San Miguel County-
951 PM MDT Tue Aug 3 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM MDT WEDNESDAY...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* A portion of northeast New Mexico, including the following areas, 
  Eastern San Miguel County, Far Northeast Highlands, Harding 
  County, Johnson and Bartlett Mesas Including Raton Pass, Northeast 
  Highlands and Union County.

* Until 6 AM MDT Wednesday.

* Abundant moisture will support scattered to numerous thunderstorms 
  through late Tuesday night. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are 
  likely with the strongest storms. This will increase the threat of 
  flash flooding, especially over recent burn scars.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action 
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

NMZ210>215-041200-
/O.CON.KABQ.FF.A.0018.000000T0000Z-210804T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Tusas Mountains Including Chama-Jemez Mountains-Glorieta Mesa
Including Glorieta Pass-Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains-East Slopes Sangre de Cristo
Mountains-
951 PM MDT Tue Aug 3 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM MDT WEDNESDAY...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* A portion of north central New Mexico, including the following 
  areas, East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains, Glorieta Mesa 
  Including Glorieta Pass, Jemez Mountains, Northern Sangre de 
  Cristo Mountains, Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains and Tusas 
  Mountains Including Chama.

* Until 6 AM MDT Wednesday.

* Abundant moisture will support scattered to numerous thunderstorms 
  through late tonight. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are likely 
  with the strongest storms. This will increase the threat of flash 
  flooding. Recent burn scars will be especially susceptible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action 
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

15

340 
WGUS65 KABQ 040806
FFAABQ

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
206 AM MDT Wed Aug 4 2021

NMZ210-211-040915-
/O.CAN.KABQ.FF.A.0018.000000T0000Z-210804T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Tusas Mountains Including Chama-Jemez Mountains-
206 AM MDT Wed Aug 4 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

The Flash Flood Watch for a portion of north central New Mexico, 
including the following areas, Jemez Mountains and Tusas Mountains 
Including Chama. has been cancelled.

Flooding is no longer expected to pose a threat. Please continue to 
heed remaining road closures.

$$

NMZ223-233-041800-
/O.EXB.KABQ.FF.A.0019.000000T0000Z-210805T0300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Central Highlands-Guadalupe County-
206 AM MDT Wed Aug 4 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

The National Weather Service in Albuquerque has expanded the

* Flash Flood Watch to include portions of central and east central 
  New Mexico, including the following areas, in central New Mexico, 
  Central Highlands. In east central New Mexico, Guadalupe County.

* Through this evening.

* Abundant moisture will support scattered to numerous thunderstorms 
  through this evening. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are likely 
  with the strongest storms. This will increase the threat of flash 
  flooding, especially over recent burn scars.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action 
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

$$

NMZ227>232-041800-
/O.EXT.KABQ.FF.A.0019.000000T0000Z-210805T0300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Johnson and Bartlett Mesas Including Raton Pass-Far Northeast
Highlands-Northeast Highlands-Union County-Harding County-Eastern
San Miguel County-
206 AM MDT Wed Aug 4 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

The Flash Flood Watch is now in effect for

* A portion of northeast New Mexico, including the following areas, 
  Eastern San Miguel County, Far Northeast Highlands, Harding 
  County, Johnson and Bartlett Mesas Including Raton Pass, Northeast 
  Highlands and Union County.

* Through this evening.

* Abundant moisture will support scattered to numerous thunderstorms 
  through tonight. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are likely with 
  the strongest storms. This will increase the threat of flash 
  flooding, especially over recent burn scars.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action 
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

$$

NMZ212>215-041800-
/O.EXT.KABQ.FF.A.0018.000000T0000Z-210805T0300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Glorieta Mesa Including Glorieta Pass-Northern Sangre de Cristo
Mountains-Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains-East Slopes Sangre
de Cristo Mountains-
206 AM MDT Wed Aug 4 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

The Flash Flood Watch is now in effect for

* A portion of north central New Mexico, including the following 
  areas, East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains, Glorieta Mesa 
  Including Glorieta Pass, Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains and 
  Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains.

* Through this evening.

* Abundant moisture will support scattered to numerous thunderstorms 
  through tonight. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are likely with 
  the strongest storms. This will increase the threat of flash 
  flooding, especially over recent burn scars.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action 
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

$$

CHJ

031 
WGUS65 KABQ 041758
FFAABQ

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1158 AM MDT Wed Aug 4 2021

NMZ223-227>233-050300-
/O.CON.KABQ.FF.A.0019.000000T0000Z-210805T0300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Central Highlands-Johnson and Bartlett Mesas Including Raton Pass-
Far Northeast Highlands-Northeast Highlands-Union County-Harding
County-Eastern San Miguel County-Guadalupe County-
1158 AM MDT Wed Aug 4 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of central, east central, and northeast New Mexico, 
  including the following areas, in central New Mexico, Central 
  Highlands. In east central New Mexico, Guadalupe County. In 
  northeast New Mexico, Eastern San Miguel County, Far Northeast 
  Highlands, Harding County, Johnson and Bartlett Mesas Including 
  Raton Pass, Northeast Highlands and Union County.

* Until 9 PM MDT this evening.

* Abundant moisture will support scattered to numerous 
  thunderstorms. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are likely with 
  the strongest storms.

* Locations with saturated ground from recent rainfall will be 
  especially susceptible to rapid runoff and flash flooding today, 
  as well as areas of complex terrain, recent burn scars, and urban 
  areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action 
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

$$

NMZ212>215-050300-
/O.CON.KABQ.FF.A.0018.000000T0000Z-210805T0300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Glorieta Mesa Including Glorieta Pass-Northern Sangre de Cristo
Mountains-Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains-East Slopes Sangre
de Cristo Mountains-
1158 AM MDT Wed Aug 4 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* A portion of north central New Mexico, including the following 
  areas, East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains, Glorieta Mesa 
  Including Glorieta Pass, Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains and 
  Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains.

* Until 9 PM MDT this evening.

* Abundant moisture will support scattered to numerous 
  thunderstorms. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are likely with 
  the strongest storms.

* Locations with saturated ground from recent rainfall will be 
  especially susceptible to rapid runoff and flash flooding today, 
  as well as areas of complex terrain, recent burn scars, and urban 
  areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action 
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

$$

44

204 
WGUS65 KABQ 050144
FFAABQ

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
744 PM MDT Wed Aug 4 2021

NMZ223-227>233-050245-
/O.CAN.KABQ.FF.A.0019.000000T0000Z-210805T0300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Central Highlands-Johnson and Bartlett Mesas Including Raton Pass-
Far Northeast Highlands-Northeast Highlands-Union County-Harding
County-Eastern San Miguel County-Guadalupe County-
744 PM MDT Wed Aug 4 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

The Flash Flood Watch for portions of central, east central, and 
northeast New Mexico, including the following areas, in central New 
Mexico, Central Highlands. In east central New Mexico, Guadalupe 
County. In northeast New Mexico, Eastern San Miguel County, Far 
Northeast Highlands, Harding County, Johnson and Bartlett Mesas 
Including Raton Pass, Northeast Highlands and Union County. has been 
cancelled.

The Flash Flood Watch is cancelled. Flooding is no longer expected 
to pose a threat. Please continue to heed any remaining road 
closures.

$$

NMZ212>215-050245-
/O.CAN.KABQ.FF.A.0018.000000T0000Z-210805T0300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Glorieta Mesa Including Glorieta Pass-Northern Sangre de Cristo
Mountains-Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains-East Slopes Sangre
de Cristo Mountains-
744 PM MDT Wed Aug 4 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

The Flash Flood Watch for a portion of north central New Mexico, 
including the following areas, East Slopes Sangre de Cristo 
Mountains, Glorieta Mesa Including Glorieta Pass, Northern Sangre de 
Cristo Mountains and Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains. has been 
cancelled.

The Flash Flood Watch is cancelled. Flooding is no longer expected 
to pose a threat. Please continue to heed any remaining road 
closures.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1148 AM MDT Mon Aug 2 2021

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
Remnant SHRA and thicker mid level cloud cover within central NM is
likely to slow convective development around the RGV until late this
afternoon. Abundant moisture and surface heating across the rest of
northern and western NM has allowed SHRA/TS to already develop over
the high terrain. Storm motion will be toward the southeast at 5 to
10 kt. Direct hits will be capable of brief IFR cigs/vsbys in heavy
rain w/ gusty outflow winds and frequent lightning strikes. SHRA/TS
will shift into eastern NM overnight with thicker mid level cloud
cover thru sunrise.

Guyer

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...310 AM MDT Mon Aug 2 2021...
.SYNOPSIS...
A few more active thunderstorm days are expected today through
Wednesday before a break in the monsoon pattern brings drier and
warmer conditions for the second half of the work week. Locally
heavy rainfall and a heightened flash flood threat will continue for
the northern and western high terrain this afternoon and evening with
the focus shifting into central and northeast areas for Tuesday and
Wednesday. Mostly isolated mountain storms are expected Thursday and
Friday. Below average high temperatures the next several days will
give way to temperatures several degrees above normal by late week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
The ridge of high pressure to our west will be interrupted by a slow
moving short wave trough riding over the top of the ridge today
through Tuesday. It will help focus convection over the west and
north today, especially over the mountains. Thus, we have issued a
Flash Flood Watch for the western and northern mountains from noon
today through 600 am Tuesday. The upper trough will inch east Tuesday
with the axis over central NM. The most significant rain should be
over the northern mountains and their east slopes, as well as the
northeast. High temperatures will warm a little in the northeast
today and all areas Tuesday, but they will remain below normal. CHJ

LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
Flash flood potential will remain heightened Tuesday night across
the northeast quarter extending south-southwest to the east slopes of
the central mountain chain.

Shortwave trough or remnant circulation modeled to drift southward
into NC/NE New Mexico Tuesday night along the eastern flank of the
strong high aloft that should be centered in the vicinity of Las
Vegas, Nevada. This feature aloft may noodle around our northeast
zones on Wednesday but should begin to translate eastward late
as the upper high shifts over northern Arizona in response to a
stronger shortwave trough moving into northern California.

Latest indications are that forcing for large-scale lift associated
with the aforementioned wave will maintain/support fairly widespread
slow-moving thunderstorms and attendant FF concerns Tuesday night
across the northeast quarter extending south-southwest into central
and possibly southwest areas. Same areas to be favored for Wednesday
though upper level support should wane. The end of the latest HREF
run valid 00Z Wed focused the heaviest QPF from central into
northeast NM with the east slopes of the Sangre de Cristos, I-25
corridor to the central and south-central highlands looking most
favorable. At the same time, significantly drier/subsident air
advancing eastward from AZ looks to shut down the far west while the
southeast quarter will be too far removed from the wave's influence.

Beyond Wednesday, as the northern California shortwave trough
translates eastward, a pronounced monsoon break period expected for
Thursday and Friday. The upper high will weaken and shift eastward
during this period with flat ridging aloft over the area. Blended
model guidance has trended drier still for Thursday with low chance
PoP limited to the higher terrain of NC and SW New Mexico. Slightly
better storm coverage on Friday but still a sub-par crop expected.
But the monsoon break will be short-lived. The pattern this weekend
into early next week looks promising with broad troughiness
dominating the western CONUS and high pressure remaining well east
of NM per ensemble guidance. Add a tropical wave from the south and
we might just sustain a more traditional monsoon pattern for several
days. KJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
No critical fire weather conditions through the forecast period. The
main concern will continue to be the threat of flash flooding with
debris flows on recent burn scars, especially the Luna burn scar.
The ridge of high pressure over the NM/AZ border will get shoved
west by an upper level trough, cutting through the upper portion of
the ridge today and the eastern side of the ridge Tuesday. Both
today and Tuesday will be active with widespread showers and
thunderstorms containing heavy rain, and isolated flash flooding.
The upper trough will still be over northeast NM Wednesday, sparking
more convection focused on the northern mountains and northeast.
The trough will finally move away from NM Thursday and Friday,
allowing the upper high to the west to build back toward NM. This
will reduce the amount of convection and warm temperatures back to
normal Thursday and above normal Friday. The high will move east of
NM this coming weekend, producing the more typical southerly flow of
monsoon moisture, which will continue into next week.  CHJ

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for the following zones...
NMZ203-204-206-208-210>215.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
400 AM MDT Mon Aug 2 2021

NMZ201>241-031100-
Northwest Plateau-Chuska Mountains-Far Northwest Highlands-
Northwest Highlands-West Central Plateau-West Central Mountains-
West Central Highlands-Southwest Mountains-
San Francisco River Valley-Tusas Mountains Including Chama-
Jemez Mountains-Glorieta Mesa Including Glorieta Pass-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Upper Rio Grande Valley-
Espanola Valley-Santa Fe Metro Area-
Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area-
Lower Rio Grande Valley-Sandia/Manzano Mountains Including Edgewood-
Estancia Valley-Central Highlands-South Central Highlands-
Upper Tularosa Valley-South Central Mountains-
Johnson and Bartlett Mesas Including Raton Pass-
Far Northeast Highlands-Northeast Highlands-Union County-
Harding County-Eastern San Miguel County-Guadalupe County-
Quay County-Curry County-Roosevelt County-De Baca County-
Chaves County Plains-Eastern Lincoln County-Southwest Chaves County-
San Agustin Plains and Adjacent Lowlands-
400 AM MDT Mon Aug 2 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of north and central
New Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered to numerous slow-moving thunderstorms are expected this
afternoon and tonight. Locally heavy rainfall will be focused over
the northern and western high terrain. Storm motions will be very
slow and erratic. This may lead to localized areas of flash flooding,
especially over and near recent and older burn scars. Isolated
locations may receive up to 2 inches of rainfall in a short amount of
time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected Tuesday through
Wednesday from north-central and northeast New Mexico southwest to
central and southwest areas. Storm motions will be slow and rainfall
could become heavy at times, especially over the northeast quarter.
Localized areas of flash flooding can be expected, especially over
and near recent and older burn scars. Isolated locations may receive
up to 2 inches of rainfall.

A break in the monsoon pattern brings drier and warmer conditions
for the second half of the work week. Mostly isolated mountain
storms are expected Thursday and Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report flash flood impacts through the
National Weather Service Albuquerque web site at weather.gov/abq or
by calling 1.888.386.7637. You can also submit storm reports and
photos on our Facebook page or via Twitter using the hashtag nmwx.

41

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
108 PM MDT Mon Aug 2 2021

NMZ208-209-021945-
San Francisco River Valley-Southwest Mountains-
108 PM MDT Mon Aug 2 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN CATRON COUNTY UNTIL
145 PM MDT...

At 107 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 13
miles southwest of San Francisco Plaza, or 14 miles southwest of
Reserve, moving southwest at 10 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Heavy rain will also be possible with this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southwestern Catron
County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Heavy rains will cause water to pond on roads and in low spots. Fast
running water will quickly fill arroyos and ditches.

&&

LAT...LON 3367 10905 3371 10897 3358 10883 3339 10901
      3343 10905
TIME...MOT...LOC 1907Z 049DEG 8KT 3360 10897

44

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
118 PM MDT Mon Aug 2 2021

NMZ241-021945-
San Agustin Plains and Adjacent Lowlands-
118 PM MDT Mon Aug 2 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN SOCORRO COUNTY UNTIL
145 PM MDT...

At 118 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 13
miles northwest of Monticello, moving south at 5 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Heavy rain will also be possible with this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southwestern
Socorro County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3358 10765 3362 10752 3361 10751 3362 10750
      3360 10751 3360 10750 3361 10749 3355 10747
      3353 10744 3348 10742 3348 10765
TIME...MOT...LOC 1918Z 340DEG 6KT 3357 10757

44

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
147 PM MDT Mon Aug 2 2021

NMZ206-022015-
West Central Mountains-
147 PM MDT Mon Aug 2 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL CIBOLA COUNTY UNTIL
215 PM MDT...

At 147 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 16
miles south of Pine Hill, or 33 miles southeast of Zuni Pueblo. This
storm was nearly stationary.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Heavy rain will also be possible with this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of south central
Cibola County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3478 10847 3483 10836 3471 10820 3460 10845
TIME...MOT...LOC 1947Z 336DEG 4KT 3476 10841

44