Tornado Warning 6, NWS Rapid City, SD

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
202 PM MDT Fri Jul 10 2020

.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Friday)
Issued at 201 PM MDT Fri Jul 10 2020

The upper ridge over the region will continue to shift eastward as
an upper trough approaches from the west. At the surface, an area of
low pressure has developed over northeastern Wyoming, with an
inverted trough extending northward into eastern Montana. Dry air,
with RH values of 10 percent and gusty southerly winds are creating
Red Flag conditions across northeast Wyoming. Radar imagery already
has storms over northeastern Wyoming, and they will become severe
sooner than later.

Destabilization is occurring across northeastern Wyoming ahead of a
quickly moving cold front in eastern Montana and a dryline in
northeastern Wyoming. MUCAPE ranges from 1000 to 2500 J/kg and and
strong deep sheer should support organized storms. Steep mid-level
lapse rates will support large hail and possibly significant hail
with storms. Also, any interactions with lingering boundaries may
pose a tornadic threat; however, low-level shear is relatively weak.

Saturday will be slightly cooler than today. With an upper ridge
building to the west and a noticeably drier airmass in place at the
surface, dry weather is expected for both Saturday and Sunday.

More active weather will return for Sunday night through much of
next week as an upper low slowly crosses the Canadian prairie
provinces, producing a period of fast westerly flow over the
northern plains. While models differ on the timing of the various
disturbances in the flow, it appears there will be a chances for
showers and thunderstorms on many days next week with temperatures
near or slightly cooler than average.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Saturday)
Issued At 201 PM MDT Fri Jul 10 2020

Severe storms will move continue to move from west to east this
afternoon and evening from northeastern Wyoming into Western and
South Central South Dakota. These storms will have strong and
erratic winds as well as the possibility of large hail. VFR
conditions expected outside of any storms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 201 PM MDT Fri Jul 10 2020

Critical fire weather conditions will continue through this evening.
Relative humidity values are already around 10 percent near Wright.
A cold front will push through northeastern Wyoming this afternoon.
Ahead of the front, low RH values and gusty southerly winds are
expected. Behind the front, winds will shift to the northwest and
bring in higher dew points.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for SDZ322.

WY...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for WYZ314>317.

&&

DISCUSSION...MLS
AVIATION...MLS
FIRE WEATHER...MLS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
503 AM MDT Fri Jul 10 2020

SDZ001-002-012>014-031-032-043-044-046-047-049-073-111300-
Harding-Perkins-Butte-Northern Meade Co Plains-Ziebach-
Pennington Co Plains-Haakon-Jackson-Bennett-Mellette-Todd-Tripp-
Southern Meade Co Plains-
503 AM MDT Fri Jul 10 2020 /603 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2020/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western South
Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Severe thunderstorms are expected today. Large hail, damaging
winds, and isolated tornadoes will be possible with these storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Additional thunderstorms will be possible from Sunday night
through early next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today.

&&

Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio for further updates...or check
our web site at weather.gov/rapidcity

SDZ024>030-041-042-072-074-WYZ054-056>058-071-111300-
Northern Black Hills-Northern Foot Hills-Rapid City-
Southern Foot Hills-Central Black Hills-Southern Black Hills-
Custer Co Plains-Fall River-Oglala Lakota-
Sturgis/Piedmont Foot Hills-Hermosa Foot Hills-Northern Campbell-
Western Crook-Wyoming Black Hills-Weston-Northeastern Crook-
503 AM MDT Fri Jul 10 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwestern
South Dakota...southwestern South Dakota...the Black Hills of
South Dakota...northeast Wyoming...and the Black Hills of
Wyoming.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Thunderstorms are expected today, some of which could be severe.
Large hail and damaging winds are possible from these storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Additional thunderstorms will be possible from Sunday night
through early next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today.

&&

Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio for further updates...or check
our web site at weather.gov/rapidcity

WYZ055-111300-
Southern Campbell-
503 AM MDT Fri Jul 10 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northeast
Wyoming.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Additional thunderstorms will be possible from Sunday night
through much of next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today.

&&

Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio for further updates...or check
our web site at weather.gov/rapidcity

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