Red Flag Warning 9, NWS Rapid City, SD

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
521 PM MDT Thu Jul 9 2020

.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Thursday)
Issued at 306 PM MDT Thu Jul 9 2020

An upper ridge will continue to build over the area from the west
this afternoon. At the surface, a weak trof extends from
northeastern South Dakota in southwester SD. Slightly drier air is
located over northwestern South Dakota, as a region of slightly
higher low level moisture has settled into the Black Hills,
southwestern South Dakota, and south central South Dakota. SBCAPE is
around 1500J/KG and radar is already showing storms over the
northern and central Black Hills. Steep low/middle level lapse rates
combined with the moisture pool, may allow for a few strong storms
this afternoon and evening. Convection looks to continue overnight,
moving from west to east. There are quite a few model differences in
the cams, but with the ingredients that are in place, a slight
chance seems warranted.

There is a greater chance for more widespread severe storms over
western South Dakota Friday and Friday night. A surface low develops
over Wyoming and eastern Montana, which will help to draw abundant
low level moisture into the region with dewpoints well into the 60s
on the South Dakota plains. The high dewpoints and temperatures in
the 90s will lead to moderate to strong instability developing
during the afternoon. Moisture convergence and instability to the
east of the sfc trough will be further enhanced by a cold front
dropping southeastward into the area along with increasing synoptic
scale lift aloft. Large hail and strong wind gusts are expected over
parts of western and central South Dakota on Friday afternoon and
night.

Saturday will be slightly cooler. With a noticeably drier airmass
in place, dry weather is expected for Saturday and most of the
day on Sunday.

More active weather will return for Sunday night through next
week as an upper low slowly crosses the Canadian prairie
provinces, producing a period of fast westerly flow across the
northern plains. While models differ on the timing of the various
disturbances in the flow, it appears there will be a chances for
showers and thunderstorms on many days with temperatures near or
slightly cooler than average.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued At 517 PM MDT Thu Jul 9 2020

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms expected to continue
developing across the region this evening and overnight, with
brief IFR conditions in stronger storms. VFR conditions expected
outside of any storms through the night. Strong to severe storms
expected again Friday afternoon, especially north and east of the
Black Hills.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 306 PM MDT Thu Jul 9 2020

Critical fire weather conditions may develop over parts of
northeastern Wyoming and far southwestern South Dakota Friday
afternoon and evening. These weather conditions combined with
already dry fuels, has prompted a Fire Weather Watch for part of the
area. A cold front moves through Friday afternoon, causing wind
speeds to increase and shift to the northwest. Sustained winds of 15
to 25 mph with gust to 35 mph are possible behind the front. Minimum
relative humidity values of 10 top 15 percent will be possible.
There is also the potential for an isolated thunderstorm with little
to no precipitation.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening
     for SDZ322.

WY...Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening
     for WYZ314>317.

&&

DISCUSSION...MLS
AVIATION...Johnson
FIRE WEATHER...MLS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
137 PM MDT Thu Jul 9 2020

SDZ001-002-013-014-032-046-049-101300-
Harding-Perkins-Northern Meade Co Plains-Ziebach-Haakon-Mellette-
Tripp-
137 PM MDT Thu Jul 9 2020 /237 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western South
Dakota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Isolated thunderstorms are possible, mainly tonight. Severe
thunderstorms are not expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Thunderstorms will be possible on Friday, some of which could be
severe. More thunderstorms will be possible from Sunday night
through early next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today.

&&

Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio for further updates...or check
our web site at weather.gov/rapidcity

SDZ012-024>031-041>044-047-072>074-WYZ056-057-071-101300-
Butte-Northern Black Hills-Northern Foot Hills-Rapid City-
Southern Foot Hills-Central Black Hills-Southern Black Hills-
Custer Co Plains-Pennington Co Plains-Fall River-Oglala Lakota-
Jackson-Bennett-Todd-Sturgis/Piedmont Foot Hills-
Southern Meade Co Plains-Hermosa Foot Hills-Western Crook-
Wyoming Black Hills-Northeastern Crook-
137 PM MDT Thu Jul 9 2020 /237 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwestern
South Dakota...south central South Dakota...southwestern South
Dakota...the Black Hills of South Dakota...northeast Wyoming...
and the Black Hills of Wyoming.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Isolated thunderstorms are possible, mainly tonight. A few storms
may be strong or severe.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Thunderstorms will be possible on Friday, some of which could be
severe. More thunderstorms will be possible from Sunday night
through early next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today.

&&

Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio for further updates...or check
our web site at weather.gov/rapidcity

WYZ054-055-058-101300-
Northern Campbell-Southern Campbell-Weston-
137 PM MDT Thu Jul 9 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northeast
Wyoming.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Isolated thunderstorms are possible tonight. A few storms may be
strong or severe.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Dry weather is expected on Friday, but more thunderstorms will be
possible from Sunday night through much of next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today.

&&

Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio for further updates...or check
our web site at weather.gov/rapidcity

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