Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1053 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2020

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
A cold front is currently moving through southeast Oklahoma
and west-central Arkansas with scattered showers and storms
across western Arkansas and southeast Oklahoma. However,
the storms are not expected to be impacting area sites
when this TAF issuance becomes valid. So, expecting generally
VFR conditions with gusty northwest winds through the night
at all sites.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 923 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2020/

DISCUSSION...
Scattered low-topped supercells continue over parts of western
Arkansas near the nose of 700mb jet in unstable pre-frontal
environment, and will continue to pose a severe threat for a
couple more hours. Cold front currently located near Checotah to
Gravette and will continue to sweep through the remainder of the
area by Midnight. Front is forcing a broken line of storms,
however updrafts quickly being undercut and as such, these storms
pose little severe threat. Gusty northwest winds immediately in
the wake of the front have been enhanced by convective cells
immediately behind it, with brief gusts in the 40-45 mph range
noted. Severe threat will end once the front clears the forecast
area.

Additional updates will mainly be to clear more counties from
tornado watch behind the front...and have also upped wind speeds
behind the front for tonight.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 506 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2020/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
The main concern with the potential for thunderstorms
to impact the western Arkansas sites through 06z as a
cold front sweeps through the region rather quickly. After 6z...
the gusty northwest winds will be concern as ceilings
clear out.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 145 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2020/

DISCUSSION...
Primary concerns will be the convection trend the remainder of the
afternoon and into the evening.

Current visible satl imagery shows the back edge of the clouds
over the part western parts of the forecast area, with
considerable breaks in the overcast noted across parts of
southeast into far eastern OK. If these trends continue, then
afternoon instability may a bit higher than earlier anticipated.
Recent runs of the HRRR appear to latch on to this idea, with
scattered pre-frontal convection developing along OK/AR border
around 21-22Z. A few of these storms could become severe, with
forecast wind fields showing the potential for rotating storms.
This activity would likely shift east of the area by early
evening, although expect additional development as the cold front
enters northwest AR around 03-04Z. This activity may pose a small
severe threat, with storms quickly exiting the area by midnight.

Will keep an eye on wind gusts over the next few hours, but
anticipate leaving the current Wind Advisory as is.

Sunday will be seasonally cool and dry, although temperatures will
bounce back to above normal readings next week as mid-level
heights rise. Went a touch above NBM guidance, with afternoon
temps likely pushing the mid 70s in some spots by Thursday and
possibly into Friday. Shower and thunderstorm chances look to
increase next weekend as the upper flow becomes southwesterly and
a cold front approaches.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

AVIATION.....10

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
511 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2020

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-151130-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
511 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2020

...SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ACROSS FAR EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.
TORNADO.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Far Eastern Oklahoma and Western Arkansas.
	ONSET...After 6 pm.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Far Eastern Oklahoma and Western Arkansas.
    ONSET...After 6 pm.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Western Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

FIRE WEATHER DANGER.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...West of U.S. Highway 75.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
The threat of severe thunderstorms will be increasing this evening
across far eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas...especially
along and east of US Highway 69. The primary threat will be
damaging wind gusts, however there will be a window of opportunity
for supercell storms to develop this evening, with large hail and
a few tornadoes possible. An additional line of storms is likely
to develop along the cold front, with a marginal threat of
damaging wind gusts. The cold front will eventually pass through
eastern Oklahoma and will exit out of northwestern Arkansas by 11
PM tonight effectively ending the severe weather threat.

A few south wind gusts of 30-35 mph remain possible across parts
of northeast Oklahoma early this evening, with a limited fire
spread threat.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Local Spotter Activation May Be Needed.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.
SUNDAY through TUESDAY...No Hazards.
WEDNESDAY through THURSDAY...High Wind Potential.
FRIDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
After a cool Sunday in the wake of tonight's cold front, warmer
temperatures are expected through the end of the upcoming work
week. South to southwest winds will increase on Wednesday and
Thursday, with gusts near 25 mph expected in northeast Oklahoma
and far northwest Arkansas.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
927 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2020

ARZ019-020-150400-
Franklin AR-Crawford AR-
927 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN FRANKLIN AND CENTRAL
CRAWFORD COUNTIES UNTIL 1000 PM CST...

At 927 PM CST, a strong thunderstorm was located 3 miles northwest of
Dyer, moving east at 55 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Ozark...                          Mountainburg...
Alma...                           Mulberry...
Dyer...                           Cass...
Fern...                           Jethro...
Barnes...                         Redding...
Watalula...                       Piney...
Toney...                          Turners Bend...
Lonelm...                         Taft...
Cravens...                        Paradise...

This includes the following highways,
 Interstate 40 in Arkansas between mile markers 12 and 36.
 Interstate 49 between mile markers 22 and 29.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until midnight CST for northwestern
and west central Arkansas.

LAT...LON 3545 9423 3559 9428 3577 9371 3553 9371
TIME...MOT...LOC 0327Z 249DEG 48KT 3554 9417

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
931 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2020

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-OKZ068>070-072-074-150415-
Carroll AR-Madison AR-Benton AR-Washington AR-Crawford AR-Haskell OK-
Adair OK-Muskogee OK-Sequoyah OK-Cherokee OK-
931 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL BENTON...NORTHWESTERN
MADISON...NORTHWESTERN CRAWFORD...NORTHERN CARROLL...WASHINGTON...
NORTHEASTERN HASKELL...SEQUOYAH...ADAIR...SOUTHEASTERN CHEROKEE AND
EAST CENTRAL MUSKOGEE COUNTIES UNTIL 1015 PM CST...

At 930 PM CST, thunderstorms were located along a line extending
from 2 miles west of Seligman to 2 miles west of Greenleaf State
Park. Movement was southeast at 40 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

This includes the following highways,
 Interstate 40 in Oklahoma between mile markers 284 and 312.
 Interstate 49 between mile markers 45 and 87.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until midnight CST for northwestern
Arkansas...and northeastern and east central Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3526 9490 3559 9531 3650 9400 3649 9332
TIME...MOT...LOC 0330Z 314DEG 34KT 3651 9399 3561 9520

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
959 PM CST SAT NOV 14 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0950 PM     TSTM WND GST     7 NW MARBLE CITY        35.65N 94.91W
11/14/2020  M69 MPH          CHEROKEE           OK   MESONET

            MEASURED AT THE COOKSON MESONET SITE.

&&

SNIDER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1052 PM CST SAT NOV 14 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1042 PM     TSTM WND GST     FORT SMITH REGIONAL AIR 35.34N 94.37W
11/14/2020  M61 MPH          SEBASTIAN          AR   ASOS

&&

SNIDER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1116 PM CST SAT NOV 14 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1050 PM     TSTM WND DMG     8 NW OZARK              35.57N 93.93W
11/14/2020                   FRANKLIN           AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF WIRE ROAD
            AND WHITE VALLEY ROAD. REPORT FROM THE 911 CENTER AND
            RELAYED BY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

&&

KAH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1121 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2020

OKZ076-150545-
Le Flore OK-
1121 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN LE FLORE COUNTY
UNTIL 1145 PM CST...

At 1121 PM CST, a strong thunderstorm was located 4 miles northwest
of Muse, moving east at 50 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Whitesboro...                     Muse...
Big Cedar...

LAT...LON 3469 9489 3482 9486 3484 9445 3453 9446
TIME...MOT...LOC 0521Z 282DEG 45KT 3472 9480