Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
353 AM CDT Thu Aug 13 2020

.DISCUSSION...
Numerous storms ongoing this morning across NE OK with scattered
svr storms producing both large hail and locally strong winds.
These storms are expected to persist through the morning hours
with a continue E-SE spread before gradual decay by late morning
or early afternoon. Hot and humid conditions will develop this
afternoon with the highest head index values west of the
convective debris influence, which at this time aligns with the
diffuse sfc frontal zone which will also act to focus a corridor
of mid to upper 70s dewpoints. The current heat advisory looks
reasonable with possible expansion once the degree of influence
from the ongoing convection become more evident.

Similar scenario is expected tonight with renewed storm
development along the elevated frontal zone which is expected to
be located slightly further eastward. This places the highest
storm chances across far E OK and NW AR with sufficient
instability and shear for a risk of svr weather. These storms will
persist into the morning on Friday before a gradual decay.

A weak frontal boundary works into the area on Saturday as the
flow amplifies across the CONUS. This may mark a downturn in
precip chances with a more robust influx of drier air likely
Sunday into Monday along with below normal temps.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   92  74  94  73 /  60  20  10   0
FSM   92  72  93  73 /  30  70  30   0
MLC   93  74  94  73 /  20  10  10   0
BVO   90  72  92  71 /  60  30  10   0
FYV   89  69  90  70 /  40  70  30   0
BYV   89  69  91  68 /  30  60  30  10
MKO   90  73  92  72 /  80  40  10   0
MIO   90  71  92  71 /  70  60  20   0
F10   93  74  93  72 /  30  20  10   0
HHW   97  76  96  75 /   0  10  10   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for OKZ049-053-064>066-071-073-075.

AR...None.
&&

LONG TERM....07

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
502 AM CDT Thu Aug 13 2020

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-141015-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
502 AM CDT Thu Aug 13 2020

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Early morning and again tonight.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Early morning and again tonight.

DANGEROUS HEAT.
	RISK...Significant.
	AREA...Portions of eastern Oklahoma.
	ONSET...Afternoon.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...Southeast Oklahoma.

DISCUSSION...
Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing early this morning across
eastern Oklahoma along with a few severe storms capable of
quarter size hail and locally strong winds.  These storms
will continue to spread eastward through the morning hours
and maintain a limited risk of severe weather before gradually
weakening during the mid to late morning hours.

Dry weather is likely to prevail this afternoon with hot and
humid conditions developing.  Afternoon heat index values of
105 to 110 degrees are likely for portions of eastern Oklahoma
especially southeast Oklahoma.

Thunderstorms are likely to develop again tonight primarily
across far eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.  These
storms will also pose a risk of severe weather and localized
flooding.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.
FRIDAY...Thunderstorm and Dangerous Heat Potential.
SATURDAY...Dangerous Heat Potential.
SUNDAY and MONDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
TUESDAY and WEDNESDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing Friday morning across
portions of eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.  These
storms will gradually weaken during the morning hours with
hot and humid conditions developing both Friday and Saturday
afternoons.  A slight chance of thunderstorms will return
Sunday and Monday as a weak cold front gradually pushes
through the region.  Dry and cooler weather is expected for
the first part of next week.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
420 AM CDT Thu Aug 13 2020

OKZ054-131000-
Osage OK-
420 AM CDT Thu Aug 13 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL OSAGE COUNTY UNTIL
500 AM CDT...

At 420 AM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 3 miles north of
Grainola, moving south at 35 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Pawhuska...                       Shidler...
Burbank...                        Grainola...
Foraker...                        Pearsonia...
Webb City...                      Apperson...

LAT...LON 3700 9638 3664 9635 3660 9676 3678 9677
      3678 9675 3700 9675
TIME...MOT...LOC 0920Z 355DEG 32KT 3698 9664

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
421 AM CDT Thu Aug 13 2020

OKZ060-064-066-131000-
Tulsa OK-Okmulgee OK-Creek OK-
421 AM CDT Thu Aug 13 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN CREEK...NORTH
CENTRAL OKMULGEE AND SOUTHEASTERN TULSA COUNTIES UNTIL 500 AM CDT...

At 421 AM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Sapulpa, moving
southeast at 30 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Tulsa...                          Broken Arrow...
Sand Springs...                   Bixby...
Sapulpa...                        Jenks...
Glenpool...                       Kiefer...
Mounds...                         Kellyville...
Liberty...

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 202 and 215.

LAT...LON 3596 9628 3610 9615 3595 9579 3576 9605
TIME...MOT...LOC 0921Z 305DEG 25KT 3599 9614

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
429 AM CDT THU AUG 13 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0412 AM     FLASH FLOOD      3 E TULSA               36.13N 95.87W
08/13/2020                   TULSA              OK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            JUST WEST OF THE INTERSECTION OF 11TH AND SHERIDAN IS
            IMPASSABLE.

&&

SNIDER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
435 AM CDT THU AUG 13 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0337 AM     TSTM WND DMG     3 E TULSA               36.13N 95.87W
08/13/2020                   TULSA              OK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            SEVERAL LARGE BRANCHES DOWN IN THE VICINITY OF 11TH AND
            SHERIDAN. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

SNIDER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
440 AM CDT Thu Aug 13 2020

OKZ054-059-060-131015-
Tulsa OK-Osage OK-Pawnee OK-
440 AM CDT Thu Aug 13 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN OSAGE...SOUTHEASTERN
PAWNEE AND NORTHWESTERN TULSA COUNTIES UNTIL 515 AM CDT...

At 440 AM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Hominy, moving
southeast at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Sand Springs...                   Hominy...
Cleveland...                      Mannford...
Westport...                       Osage...
Keystone State Park...            Walnut Creek State Park...

LAT...LON 3649 9638 3632 9599 3608 9625 3608 9630
      3616 9630 3616 9637 3617 9637 3635 9652
TIME...MOT...LOC 0940Z 309DEG 22KT 3638 9638

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
507 AM CDT Thu Aug 13 2020

OKZ068>074-131100-
Haskell OK-Pittsburg OK-Adair OK-Muskogee OK-Sequoyah OK-Cherokee OK-
McIntosh OK-
507 AM CDT Thu Aug 13 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HASKELL...EASTERN MCINTOSH...
WESTERN SEQUOYAH...SOUTHWESTERN ADAIR...NORTHEASTERN PITTSBURG...
SOUTHEASTERN CHEROKEE AND EASTERN MUSKOGEE COUNTIES UNTIL 600 AM
CDT...

At 507 AM CDT, strong thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 4 miles south of Hulbert to 2 miles northwest of
Eufaula. Movement was southeast at 35 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations in or near the path include...
Tahlequah...                      Sallisaw...
Stilwell...                       Eufaula...
Stigler...                        Warner...
Vian...                           Quinton...
Gore...                           Porum...
Webbers Falls...                  Whitefield...
Kinta...                          Marble City...
Braggs...                         Tamaha...
Brushy...                         Adair State Park...
Greenleaf State Park...           Pumpkin Center...

This includes Interstate 40 in Oklahoma between mile markers 267 and
307.

LAT...LON 3535 9482 3506 9532 3506 9535 3504 9535
      3527 9567 3592 9503 3583 9459
TIME...MOT...LOC 1007Z 298DEG 29KT 3586 9515 3531 9562