Severe Thunderstorm Warning 319, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1219 AM CDT Thu Aug 13 2020

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Scattered thunderstorms have the potential to impact all area
sites tonight and into Thursday morning. VFR conditions are
forecast at most sites outside of the thunderstorm areas.
However, MVFR conditions may be possible overnight at the
northwest Arkansas sites.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 920 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2020/

DISCUSSION...
Latest data continues to indicate convection develops across sern
KS and nern OK after midnight in low level warm advection regime.
As S/SWly low level jet strengthens across central/ern OK below
west-northwest flow aloft, activity should become organized
enough to spread across much of nern OK and nwrn AR through
Thursday morning, especially areas north of I-40. Trends in
ongoing forecast look good, but this update will reflect
increasing convective coverage through Thursday morning along with
higher QPF. Severe weather threat continues to look low, but is
nonzero.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   90  74  94  73 /  40  10  10  10
FSM   91  72  93  73 /  50  40  30  10
MLC   94  75  95  73 /  20   0  10  10
BVO   89  72  91  71 /  40  20  10  10
FYV   89  69  89  70 /  60  50  30  10
BYV   90  69  92  69 /  20  30  30  10
MKO   89  73  92  72 /  60  20  10  10
MIO   91  72  91  71 /  60  40  20  10
F10   91  74  94  72 /  30  10   0  10
HHW   97  75  97  75 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for OKZ049-053-064>066-071-073-075.

AR...None.
&&

AVIATION.....10

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
427 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2020

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-131030-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
427 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2020

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Northeastern Oklahoma.
	ONSET...After 2 am.

DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorms are expected to develop into the area late tonight from
the northwest. These storms will pose a limited risk of severe
weather, generally north of I-40. Locally heavy rainfall is also
possible.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Local Spotter Activation May Be Needed.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.
THURSDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Dangerous Heat Potential.
FRIDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Dangerous Heat Potential.
SATURDAY...Dangerous Heat Potential.
SUNDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Dangerous Heat Potential.
MONDAY and TUESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Scattered thunderstorms will likely be ongoing across portions of
northeast Oklahoma, spreading into northwest Arkansas Thursday
morning before weakening. Additional scattered thunderstorms are
expected to develop across portions of northeast Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas Thursday night into Friday morning. A few of these
storms could be severe with marginally severe hail and strong gusty
winds. In addition, a very moist air mass will remain in place, and
with the slow storm motions expected, locally heavy rainfall will
again be possible.

Afternoon heat index values around 105 degrees will be possible
through the weekend, and additional Heat Advisories may be needed
for portions of eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. A cold front
is forecast to arrive late in the weekend, with notably cooler and
drier weather possible by early next week.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

69

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1224 AM CDT Thu Aug 13 2020

OKZ054-130615-
Osage OK-
1224 AM CDT Thu Aug 13 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL OSAGE COUNTY UNTIL
115 AM CDT...

At 1224 AM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 5 miles south of
Kaw City, moving east at 30 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Fairfax...                        Shidler...
Burbank...                        Southern Kaw Lake...
Apperson...

LAT...LON 3668 9694 3669 9693 3672 9692 3675 9689
      3675 9687 3674 9683 3676 9682 3677 9682
      3677 9679 3678 9679 3680 9644 3653 9645
      3658 9690 3660 9692 3659 9695
TIME...MOT...LOC 0524Z 271DEG 28KT 3668 9685

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1252 AM CDT Thu Aug 13 2020

OKZ054-059-130645-
Osage OK-Pawnee OK-
1252 AM CDT Thu Aug 13 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL OSAGE AND CENTRAL
PAWNEE COUNTIES UNTIL 145 AM CDT...

At 1252 AM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Ralston,
moving east at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Ralston...                        Blackburn...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3643 9681 3655 9674 3644 9644 3629 9648
TIME...MOT...LOC 0552Z 287DEG 23KT 3650 9669