Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
300 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2020

.DISCUSSION...
A few isolated strong thunderstorms continue this morning across
portions of northeast Oklahoma. Storms are forming in a CAPE
environment around 2000 J/KG with 30-35 knots of 0-6 KM shear.
Highest instability axis is generally along and west of an Osage,
Tulsa, McAlester line. This will support at least a marginal
wind/hail threat for the next few hours as activity pushes
southward before weakening.

Northern portions of MCS currently pushing through southwest
Oklahoma could potentially develop MCV type feature, moving
southeast along/just south of the Red River. Additional
thunderstorm development will be possible by late morning or early
afternoon across southeast Oklahoma on northern periphery of
feature, coupled with surface heating and approaching frontal
boundary. A few of these storms could be marginally severe given
the unstable air-mass expected, however weak deep layer shear
will likely keep most of these storm below severe levels. PWATs
approaching 2.00 inches will support very heavy rainfall with any
storms that develop. Several CAMS solutions suggest at least a
localized flooding threat with the slow storm motions expected/
potential training.

Isolated thunderstorm development is still possible on Wednesday
across far northeast Oklahoma as weak upper wave approaches in
northwest flow aloft. Better storm chances should stay north
across southeast Kansas. Slight chance pops will persist for the
remainder of the work week. ECMWF a little more aggressive with
upper trough moving through the central Plains on Saturday,
developing swath of heavier QPF across the area. Given the drier
GFS solution and the lack of any significant frontal forcing,
will continue with low chance pops for now. Temperatures should
remain near normal through the extended periods and stayed
primarily with NBM guidance.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   87  65  86  69 /   0   0  20  10
FSM   89  64  88  67 /  30   0  10   0
MLC   86  63  86  66 /  50  10  10   0
BVO   86  63  85  67 /   0   0  20  20
FYV   85  59  85  65 /  10   0  10  10
BYV   85  58  85  65 /   0   0  10  10
MKO   86  63  86  67 /  10   0  10  10
MIO   85  60  85  67 /   0   0  20  20
F10   87  63  86  66 /  20   0  10   0
HHW   83  66  86  67 /  60  20  10   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

LONG TERM....12

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
439 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2020

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-231015-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
439 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2020

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Southeast Oklahoma.
	ONSET...After midnight.

DISCUSSION...

There is a chance of thunderstorms after midnight across southeast
Oklahoma, especially close to the Red River. An isolated
marginally severe hail storm is possible.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Local Spotter Activation May Be Needed.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.
TUESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
WEDNESDAY and THURSDAY...No Hazards.
FRIDAY thru SUNDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

Storms may be ongoing Tuesday morning across southeast Oklahoma
and west central Arkansas, but the severe weather threat will be
very limited. Storm chances shift south and east of the region by
Tuesday afternoon.

Storm chances return by next weekend but organized severe weather
is not expected.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

Lacy

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1202 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2020

OKZ054-230530-
Osage OK-
1202 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN OSAGE COUNTY UNTIL
1230 AM CDT...

At 1201 AM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Sunset Lake,
moving southeast at 30 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Bigheart...                       Osage Hills State Park...
Okesa...                          Sunset Lake...
Tallant...

LAT...LON 3682 9642 3692 9624 3670 9600 3658 9619
TIME...MOT...LOC 0501Z 320DEG 25KT 3681 9627

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
135 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2020

OKZ055-060-061-230700-
Tulsa OK-Rogers OK-Washington OK-
135 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL ROGERS...SOUTH
CENTRAL WASHINGTON AND NORTHEASTERN TULSA COUNTIES UNTIL 200 AM
CDT...

At 134 AM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 4 miles south of
Vera, moving southeast at 25 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Tulsa...                          Owasso...
Skiatook...                       Collinsville...
Vera...

LAT...LON 3638 9600 3651 9588 3634 9565 3618 9586
TIME...MOT...LOC 0634Z 318DEG 22KT 3640 9591

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
217 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2020

OKZ054-059-230745-
Osage OK-Pawnee OK-
217 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL OSAGE AND NORTH CENTRAL
PAWNEE COUNTIES UNTIL 245 AM CDT...

At 217 AM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Ralston, moving
southeast at 20 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Ralston...                        Skedee...

LAT...LON 3651 9680 3655 9670 3642 9653 3634 9668
TIME...MOT...LOC 0717Z 317DEG 18KT 3649 9672

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
301 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2020

OKZ054-059-060-230830-
Tulsa OK-Osage OK-Pawnee OK-
301 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN OSAGE...SOUTHEASTERN
PAWNEE AND CENTRAL TULSA COUNTIES UNTIL 330 AM CDT...

At 301 AM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 3 miles east of
Walnut Creek State Park, moving southeast at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Tulsa...                          Sand Springs...
Sperry...                         Westport...
Turley...                         Walnut Creek State Park...
Gray...

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 217 and 218.

LAT...LON 3638 9622 3625 9592 3607 9604 3608 9614
      3622 9634
TIME...MOT...LOC 0801Z 304DEG 23KT 3627 9621

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
319 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2020

OKZ054-059-060-064-230900-
Tulsa OK-Osage OK-Pawnee OK-Creek OK-
319 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN OSAGE...NORTHEASTERN
CREEK...SOUTHEASTERN PAWNEE AND CENTRAL TULSA COUNTIES UNTIL 400 AM
CDT...

At 319 AM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 5 miles north of
Sand Springs, moving southeast at 20 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 45 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Tulsa...                          Sand Springs...
Jenks...                          Sperry...
Westport...                       Turley...
Tulsa International Airport...    Walnut Creek State Park...
Gray...

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 213 and 221.

LAT...LON 3640 9623 3623 9587 3600 9603 3602 9609
      3608 9615 3621 9635
TIME...MOT...LOC 0819Z 306DEG 18KT 3622 9612

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
321 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2020

OKZ060-064-067-230845-
Tulsa OK-Creek OK-Wagoner OK-
321 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN CREEK...NORTHWESTERN
WAGONER AND SOUTHEASTERN TULSA COUNTIES UNTIL 345 AM CDT...

At 321 AM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 3 miles west of
Tulsa, moving southeast at 25 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Tulsa...                          Broken Arrow...
Sand Springs...                   Bixby...
Jenks...                          Glenpool...
Coweta...                         Catoosa...
Jenks Riverside Airport...        Turley...
Tulsa International Airport...    Oneta...
Gray...                           Leonard...

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 213 and 232.

LAT...LON 3628 9599 3619 9581 3616 9581 3616 9576
      3609 9562 3588 9577 3599 9603 3601 9609
      3607 9612 3608 9614 3616 9608 3617 9600
      3627 9600
TIME...MOT...LOC 0821Z 300DEG 23KT 3614 9599