Severe Thunderstorm Warning 238, NWS Tulsa, OK

546 
WWUS54 KTSA 230621
SVSTSA

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
121 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2020

OKC113-143-147-230645-
/O.CON.KTSA.SV.W.0238.000000T0000Z-200623T0645Z/
Osage OK-Washington OK-Tulsa OK-
121 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 145 AM CDT
FOR EAST CENTRAL OSAGE...SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTHEASTERN
TULSA COUNTIES...

At 121 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 3 miles west of
Vera, moving southeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations in or near the path include...
Skiatook...                       Collinsville...
Ramona...                         Ochelata...
Avant...                          Vera...
Wolco...                          

LAT...LON 3648 9581 3642 9581 3642 9579 3640 9579
      3639 9581 3637 9581 3629 9594 3659 9616
      3665 9606
TIME...MOT...LOC 0621Z 319DEG 23KT 3646 9594 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

269 
WWUS54 KTSA 230631
SVSTSA

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
131 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2020

OKC113-230640-
/O.CAN.KTSA.SV.W.0238.000000T0000Z-200623T0645Z/
Osage OK-
131 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2020

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL OSAGE COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 3648 9581 3642 9581 3642 9579 3640 9579
      3639 9581 3637 9581 3629 9594 3638 9600
      3642 9600 3653 9591
TIME...MOT...LOC 0630Z 319DEG 23KT 3641 9589 

$$

OKC143-147-230645-
/O.CON.KTSA.SV.W.0238.000000T0000Z-200623T0645Z/
Washington OK-Tulsa OK-
131 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 145 AM CDT
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL WASHINGTON AND NORTHEASTERN TULSA COUNTIES...

At 130 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Vera, moving
southeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations in or near the path include...
Skiatook...                       Collinsville...
Vera...                           

LAT...LON 3648 9581 3642 9581 3642 9579 3640 9579
      3639 9581 3637 9581 3629 9594 3638 9600
      3642 9600 3653 9591
TIME...MOT...LOC 0630Z 319DEG 23KT 3641 9589 

HAIL...0.88IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

029 
WWUS54 KTSA 230644
SVSTSA

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
144 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2020

OKC143-147-230654-
/O.EXP.KTSA.SV.W.0238.000000T0000Z-200623T0645Z/
Washington OK-Tulsa OK-
144 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2020

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL WASHINGTON AND
NORTHEASTERN TULSA COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 145 AM CDT...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has weakened 
below severe limits. Therefore the warning will be allowed to expire.

LAT...LON 3648 9581 3642 9581 3642 9579 3640 9579
      3639 9581 3637 9581 3629 9594 3638 9600
      3642 9600 3653 9591
TIME...MOT...LOC 0644Z 319DEG 23KT 3635 9583 

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1211 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2020

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Isolated to scattered convection across NE OK looks to mainly impact
KBVO early in the period. Coverage is expected to remain somewhat
limited, therefore will not include thunder at the NW AR sites.
Complex across western OK is expected to stay south of KMLC, but will
maintain VCSH for a few hours to account for remnants that move into
SE OK. Otherwise, surface forcing for storms is expected to move south
during the period, resulting in VFR elements.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 645 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2020/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
The isolated diurnal convection in Northeast Oklahoma should
weaken with the loss of daytime heating. In response...few to
broken mid and high clouds are forecast overnight tonight across
the CWA. There are some indications that additional convection may
develop into Northwest Arkansas late tonight while at the same
time a MCS moves east southeast near the Red River. For now have
increased cloud cover for Northwest Arkansas due to uncertainty
and have added VCSH to MLC for any precip on the northern edge of
the MCS in Southeast Oklahoma. This activity looks to push aways
from the TAF sites during the morning hours Sunday. By Sunday
afternoon...scattered mid and high clouds are again forecast with
surface winds becoming northerly as a surface boundary drops
through the region. VFR conditions are forecast...though any
convection that may develop tonight could aid in a period of MVFR
conditions.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 605 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2020/

UPDATE...

PoPs have been updated for the remainder of the afternoon and thru
tonight based on the latest obs and model trends. See discussion
below.

DISCUSSION...

Isolated storms have developed along wind shift/surface trof near
the OK/KS border. This activity should be diurnally driven and
should dissipate within an hour or so with very low severe threat.
Short term CAM data suggests that some isolated development is
possible this evening and overnight with the boundary as it drops
south. MCS is still forecast to organize over the TX South Plains
and drop ESE across north TX tonight. While this activity will
likely stay south of the Red River, some warm advection storms are
possible near and just north of the river late tonight into
Tuesday morning. The theme of this part of the forecast remains
unchanged but the timing of the higher PoPs was adjusted to slow
it down a bit. Updated text products sent.

Lacy

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 138 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2020/

DISCUSSION...
Partly to mostly sunny skies prevail across eastern
Oklahoma and western Arkansas in the wake of the
thunderstorm complex that moved through the region
during the overnight hours into this morning. A cold
front has settled into far eastern Oklahoma this afternoon
with a surface trof ahead of it across central Arkansas
into northeast Texas. The showers and thunderstorms that
are ongoing are closer to the boundary moving into central
Arkansas.

The area is expected to remain shower and thunderstorm free
through the evening hours. However, there is the potential
for some showers and thunderstorms overnight into Tuesday
morning across southeast Oklahoma as a thunderstorm complex
develops to our west and spreads to the southeast.

Have kept Tuesday night through Thursday dry. With the
northwesterly flow aloft, will have to keep an eye to
the north Wednesday afternoon and evening for a possible
MCS that may develop and head into to the area. Otherwise,
the next chances of showers and thunderstorms will come
Friday afternoon and into the weekend as low level moisture
increases across the region.

Have stayed very close to the NBM guidance temperatures
through the valid period.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

AVIATION.....23

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
439 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2020

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-231015-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
439 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2020

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Southeast Oklahoma.
	ONSET...After midnight.

DISCUSSION...

There is a chance of thunderstorms after midnight across southeast
Oklahoma, especially close to the Red River. An isolated
marginally severe hail storm is possible.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Local Spotter Activation May Be Needed.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.
TUESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
WEDNESDAY and THURSDAY...No Hazards.
FRIDAY thru SUNDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

Storms may be ongoing Tuesday morning across southeast Oklahoma
and west central Arkansas, but the severe weather threat will be
very limited. Storm chances shift south and east of the region by
Tuesday afternoon.

Storm chances return by next weekend but organized severe weather
is not expected.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

Lacy

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1140 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2020

OKZ061-062-230515-
Rogers OK-Mayes OK-
1140 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN ROGERS AND
NORTHWESTERN MAYES COUNTIES UNTIL 1215 AM CDT...

At 1140 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 3 miles south of
Chelsea, moving southeast at 30 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Pryor...                          Pryor Creek...
Chelsea...                        Adair...
Bushyhead...

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 259 and 270.

LAT...LON 3652 9533 3651 9533 3651 9532 3637 9520
      3626 9537 3649 9556 3660 9545 3660 9539
TIME...MOT...LOC 0440Z 325DEG 27KT 3648 9542

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1146 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2020

OKZ054-230515-
Osage OK-
1146 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL OSAGE COUNTY UNTIL
1215 AM CDT...

At 1145 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 3 miles north of
Foraker, moving southeast at 30 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Grainola...                       Foraker...
Pearsonia...

LAT...LON 3679 9628 3669 9653 3692 9671 3700 9658
      3700 9650
TIME...MOT...LOC 0445Z 324DEG 27KT 3692 9657

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1202 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2020

OKZ054-230530-
Osage OK-
1202 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN OSAGE COUNTY UNTIL
1230 AM CDT...

At 1201 AM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Sunset Lake,
moving southeast at 30 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Bigheart...                       Osage Hills State Park...
Okesa...                          Sunset Lake...
Tallant...

LAT...LON 3682 9642 3692 9624 3670 9600 3658 9619
TIME...MOT...LOC 0501Z 320DEG 25KT 3681 9627