Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
251 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2020

.DISCUSSION...
Partial clearing has allowed temperatures to warm into the lower
to mid 80s, with lower to mid 60s dewpoints situated across far
southeast OK into western AR. A ribbon of SBCAPES around 1000-2000
J/kgs is expected to develop by late afternoon ahead of a
southward surging cold front. There looks to be a small window
open for strong/severe storms across western AR into southeast OK,
with the recent HRRR showing initiation around 22-23Z with storms
exiting far southeast OK toward 01Z.

The cold front should become stationary across northern TX, with
the bulk of showers/thunderstorms remaining generally south of
I-40 into Friday morning. Precipitation is expected to become more
widespread and lift north late Friday into Saturday as an upper
system ejects into the Plains and the surface boundary retreats
north as a warm front. Severe weather is not expected during this
time-frame although there should be periods of locally heavy
rainfall. Precipitation is expected to shift east of the region
Saturday night, with Sunday shaping up to be a mostly dry day.

A very active and moist southwesterly upper flow will set up
beyond Sunday and persist through most of next week. Timing of
impulses within the upper flow remains troublesome, with the
forecast featuring reasonably high chances of rain each day. This
may peak toward the end of the week as a stronger upper wave lifts
into the Plains. Stayed very close to NBM for PoPs/temperatures
in the extended.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   43  54  44  56 /   0  60 100  80
FSM   49  58  44  58 /  20  80 100  90
MLC   50  57  48  64 /  30  90 100  90
BVO   40  53  41  52 /   0  40 100  70
FYV   42  54  42  55 /  10  60 100  90
BYV   42  53  39  49 /   0  50 100  90
MKO   47  55  44  57 /  10  70 100  90
MIO   40  53  41  50 /   0  40 100  90
F10   46  54  45  62 /  20  80 100  80
HHW   54  58  49  66 /  80  90  80  90

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

LONG TERM....18

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
423 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2020

OKZ076-122200-
Le Flore OK-
423 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL LE FLORE COUNTY
UNTIL 500 PM CDT...

At 422 PM CDT, strong thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Lake Wister State Park to near Howe. Movement was
east at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations in or near the path include...
Poteau...                         Heavener...
Wister...                         Howe...
Heavener Runestone State Park...  Lake Wister State Park...

LAT...LON 3501 9488 3508 9445 3484 9445 3487 9484
TIME...MOT...LOC 2122Z 260DEG 15KT 3494 9480 3495 9461

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
455 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2020

OKZ076-122230-
Le Flore OK-
455 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN LE FLORE COUNTY UNTIL
530 PM CDT...

At 455 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Talimena State
Park, moving east at 30 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Heavener...                       Talimena State Park...
Heavener Runestone State Park...  Hodgen...
Summerfield...

LAT...LON 3472 9502 3485 9501 3486 9500 3491 9500
      3493 9445 3466 9447
TIME...MOT...LOC 2155Z 273DEG 26KT 3482 9493

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