Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
251 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2020

.DISCUSSION...
Partial clearing has allowed temperatures to warm into the lower
to mid 80s, with lower to mid 60s dewpoints situated across far
southeast OK into western AR. A ribbon of SBCAPES around 1000-2000
J/kgs is expected to develop by late afternoon ahead of a
southward surging cold front. There looks to be a small window
open for strong/severe storms across western AR into southeast OK,
with the recent HRRR showing initiation around 22-23Z with storms
exiting far southeast OK toward 01Z.

The cold front should become stationary across northern TX, with
the bulk of showers/thunderstorms remaining generally south of
I-40 into Friday morning. Precipitation is expected to become more
widespread and lift north late Friday into Saturday as an upper
system ejects into the Plains and the surface boundary retreats
north as a warm front. Severe weather is not expected during this
time-frame although there should be periods of locally heavy
rainfall. Precipitation is expected to shift east of the region
Saturday night, with Sunday shaping up to be a mostly dry day.

A very active and moist southwesterly upper flow will set up
beyond Sunday and persist through most of next week. Timing of
impulses within the upper flow remains troublesome, with the
forecast featuring reasonably high chances of rain each day. This
may peak toward the end of the week as a stronger upper wave lifts
into the Plains. Stayed very close to NBM for PoPs/temperatures
in the extended.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   43  54  44  56 /   0  60 100  80
FSM   49  58  44  58 /  20  80 100  90
MLC   50  57  48  64 /  30  90 100  90
BVO   40  53  41  52 /   0  40 100  70
FYV   42  54  42  55 /  10  60 100  90
BYV   42  53  39  49 /   0  50 100  90
MKO   47  55  44  57 /  10  70 100  90
MIO   40  53  41  50 /   0  40 100  90
F10   46  54  45  62 /  20  80 100  80
HHW   54  58  49  66 /  80  90  80  90

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

LONG TERM....18

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1249 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2020

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-131030-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
1249 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2020

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.
TORNADO.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Far southeast Oklahoma and west-central Arkansas.
	ONSET...After 4 pm.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Far southeast Oklahoma and west-central Arkansas.
	ONSET...After 4 pm.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

FIRE WEATHER DANGER.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop late
this afternoon in the vicinity of a cold front across
extreme southeast Oklahoma and west-central. There is
the potential for these storms to become strong to
severe with large hail and damaging winds the main
concern. However, there is also a small possibility of
a tornado. This activity is expected to exit the area
by early evening. Additional showers and thunderstorms
will be possible overnight across southeast Oklahoma
and west-central Arkansas as the frontal boundary lingers
across north Texas.

Gusty winds are expected to continue through the afternoon
across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. This combined
with unseasonably warm temperatures and relative humidity
values dropping to around 30 percent across portions of
northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas will create
an elevated fire weather danger this afternoon. These conditions
will improve this evening.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Local Spotter Activation May Be Needed.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...
Heavy Rain Potential.
SUNDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
MONDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
TUESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
WEDNESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
A strong upper level storm system will approach from the southwest
Friday into Saturday. Storms with locally heavy rainfall will be
possible across southeast Oklahoma Friday, spreading across the
remainder of the area Friday night into Saturday. Localized flooding
will be possible, depending on exactly where the heavier rain
bands develop.

Another round of storms with heavy rainfall is expected Monday into
Tuesday on next week. Flooding will likely become more of a concern
by this time, especially in areas that receive heavy rainfall
over the weekend.  Thunderstorm chances will likely persist on
Wednesday as yet another upper disturbance approaches from the
southwest.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
411 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2020

OKZ075-122145-
Latimer OK-
411 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL LATIMER COUNTY UNTIL 445
PM CDT...

At 411 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 4 miles southwest of
Damon, moving east at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Red Oak...                        Higgins...
Damon...                          Bengal...
Panola...

LAT...LON 3472 9541 3487 9545 3497 9506 3473 9506
TIME...MOT...LOC 2111Z 259DEG 18KT 3480 9535

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
423 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2020

OKZ076-122200-
Le Flore OK-
423 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL LE FLORE COUNTY
UNTIL 500 PM CDT...

At 422 PM CDT, strong thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Lake Wister State Park to near Howe. Movement was
east at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations in or near the path include...
Poteau...                         Heavener...
Wister...                         Howe...
Heavener Runestone State Park...  Lake Wister State Park...

LAT...LON 3501 9488 3508 9445 3484 9445 3487 9484
TIME...MOT...LOC 2122Z 260DEG 15KT 3494 9480 3495 9461

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
455 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2020

OKZ076-122230-
Le Flore OK-
455 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN LE FLORE COUNTY UNTIL
530 PM CDT...

At 455 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Talimena State
Park, moving east at 30 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Heavener...                       Talimena State Park...
Heavener Runestone State Park...  Hodgen...
Summerfield...

LAT...LON 3472 9502 3485 9501 3486 9500 3491 9500
      3493 9445 3466 9447
TIME...MOT...LOC 2155Z 273DEG 26KT 3482 9493

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