Severe Thunderstorm Warning 373, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1227 AM CDT Tue Sep 1 2020

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms will continue spreading
into portions of eastern Oklahoma overnight in low level jet
axis, moving into west-central Arkansas late tonight. LIFR/IFR
conditions will be likely in the stronger storms, especially at
MLC and late tonight into Tuesday morning at KFSM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 952 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2020/

DISCUSSION...
Significant convection has remained confined to the far northwest
part of our forecast area, and has struggled to make any eastward
progress, with mainly anvil light rain overspreading much of
eastern Oklahoma. Will keep the severe thunderstorm watch for
Osage and Pawnee Counties until 11 pm, where a few strong storms
remain, but cancel it elsewhere.

Overnight, there is still a strong signal for the eventual
development of a significant MCS across mainly the southern half
of our forecast area, with heavy rainfall and flooding likely
being the most significant threat, but also some severe threat.
This activity is likely to persist well into Tuesday morning.

Other than a few changes to pops in the short term based on
current trends, have left the forecast and the flash flood watch
as is.

Update on the way.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flash Flood Watch through this afternoon for OKZ060-064>067-070-
     071.

     Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for OKZ049-053-
     072>076.

AR...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for ARZ019-020-029.

&&

AVIATION.....12

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
523 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2020

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-011000-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
523 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2020

...SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE INTO TONIGHT...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

TORNADO.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma.
	ONSET...After 6 PM.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Southeast Oklahoma and West Central Arkansas.
	ONSET...Late Evening.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
Strong to severe thunderstorms have developed across central
Oklahoma late this afternoon to the south of a cold front. These
storms will move east into parts of eastern Oklahoma early this
evening, bringing a threat of damaging winds and large hail. An
isolated tornado will also be possible. These storms are likely to
weaken later this evening as they move east of Highway 75 into a
more stable airmass.

Additional thunderstorms are expected to move into parts of
southeast Oklahoma by late evening or overnight. A few of these
storms may also be severe. Heavy rainfall and flash flood
potential will also be a concern later tonight, especially as
these storms approach the Arkansas border, where heavy rain fell
late last night and this morning.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Likely.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.
TUESDAY and Wednesday...Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
THURSDAY through SATURDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
SUNDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
The unsettled weather pattern will continue on Tuesday and Wednesday
as an upper level trough approaches from the northwest. Multiple
rounds of thunderstorms with very heavy rainfall will be possible
including the potential for flash flooding. Main-stem river
flooding may also become an issue as more widespread rainfall
occurs over the duration of the event.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
108 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1254 AM     FLASH FLOOD      2 NNE EUFAULA           35.31N 95.57W
09/01/2020                   MCINTOSH           OK   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORTS A FOOT OF WATER COVERING THE INTERSECTION
            OF HIGHWAY 69 AND STATE HIGHWAY 150 NEAR EUFAULA.

&&

SNIDER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
118 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0116 AM     TSTM WND GST     2 NW HAYWOOD            34.91N 95.97W
09/01/2020  E60 MPH          PITTSBURG          OK   BROADCAST MEDIA

            BROADCAST MEDIA CHASER REPORTS WINDS ESTIMATED TO BE 50
            TO 60 MILES PER HOUR.

&&

SNIDER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
134 AM CDT Tue Sep 1 2020

OKZ076-010730-
Le Flore OK-
134 AM CDT Tue Sep 1 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN LE FLORE COUNTY UNTIL
230 AM CDT...

At 134 AM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 8 miles northeast of
Fanshawe, moving northeast at 15 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Poteau...                         Spiro...
Panama...                         Fanshawe...
Shady Point...

LAT...LON 3492 9494 3494 9494 3494 9493 3511 9493
      3525 9463 3503 9450
TIME...MOT...LOC 0634Z 240DEG 15KT 3506 9484