River Flood Warning 76, NWS Tulsa, OK

467 
WGUS84 KTSA 020147
FLSTSA

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
847 PM CDT Tue Sep 1 2020

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in 
Oklahoma...

  Kiamichi River near Antlers affecting Pushmataha County.


OKC127-021400-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0076.200902T0444Z-200903T1629Z/
/ANTO2.2.ER.200902T0444Z.200902T1800Z.200903T1028Z.NO/
847 PM CDT Tue Sep 1 2020

...The Flood Warning is now in effect until late Thursday morning...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Kiamichi River near Antlers.
* Until Thursday morning.
* At 8:30 PM CDT Tuesday the stage was 18.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 25.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage late 
  this evening to a crest of 33.5 feet early tomorrow afternoon. It 
  will then fall below flood stage early Thursday morning.
* Impact...At 33.0 feet, several permanent structures on the 
  campgrounds along the west bank of Kiamichi River near Moyers 
  become flooded. The City of Antlers is not threatened directly by 
  the Kiamichi flooding but backwater flooding may occur along 
  Beaver Creek east of town.


&&

LAT...LON 3442 9550 3417 9543 3419 9558 3424 9569
      3441 9569

$$

Lacy

368 
WGUS84 KTSA 020700
FLSTSA

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
200 AM CDT Wed Sep 2 2020

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Oklahoma...

  Kiamichi River near Antlers affecting Pushmataha County.


OKC127-021900-
/O.CON.KTSA.FL.W.0076.000000T0000Z-200903T1629Z/
/ANTO2.2.ER.200902T1413Z.200903T0600Z.200903T1237Z.NO/
200 AM CDT Wed Sep 2 2020

...The Flood Warning remains in effect...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Kiamichi River near Antlers.
* Until Thursday morning.
* At 1:30 AM CDT Wednesday the stage was 20.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 25.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage late 
  this morning to a crest of 29.0 feet just after midnight tonight. 
  It will then fall below flood stage Thursday morning.
* Impact...At 29.0 feet, moderate flooding occurs along the west 
  bank of the Kiamichi River near Moyers. Some permanent buildings 
  on the campgrounds become isolated.


&&

LAT...LON 3442 9550 3417 9543 3419 9558 3424 9569
      3441 9569

$$

RBD

057 
WGUS84 KTSA 021332
FLSTSA

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
832 AM CDT Wed Sep 2 2020

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Oklahoma...

  Kiamichi River near Antlers affecting Pushmataha County.


OKC127-030145-
/O.CON.KTSA.FL.W.0076.000000T0000Z-200903T1629Z/
/ANTO2.1.ER.200902T1800Z.200903T0000Z.200903T0716Z.NO/
832 AM CDT Wed Sep 2 2020

...The Flood Warning remains in effect...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Kiamichi River near Antlers.
* Until Thursday morning.
* At 7:30 AM CDT Wednesday the stage was 21.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 25.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage this 
  afternoon to a crest of 26.4 feet this evening. It will then fall 
  below flood stage late tonight.
* Impact...At 27.0 feet, minor flooding occurs along the west bank 
  of the Kiamichi River near Moyers. Campers should move to higher 
  ground.


&&

LAT...LON 3442 9550 3417 9543 3419 9558 3424 9569
      3441 9569

$$

504 
WGUS84 KTSA 021909
FLSTSA

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
209 PM CDT Wed Sep 2 2020

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Oklahoma...

  Kiamichi River near Antlers affecting Pushmataha County.

OKC127-022015-
/O.CAN.KTSA.FL.W.0076.000000T0000Z-200902T1909Z/
/ANTO2.1.ER.700125T2031Z.700125T2031Z.700125T2031Z.NO/
209 PM CDT Wed Sep 2 2020

...The Flood Warning for the Kiamichi River near Antlers has been 
cancelled...

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the Kiamichi River near Antlers.
* At 1:30 PM CDT Wednesday the stage was 21.4 feet.
* Flood stage is 25.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river has crested below flood stage and is expected 
  to continue to fall to 15.3 feet early Friday morning.


&&

LAT...LON 3442 9550 3417 9543 3419 9558 3424 9569
      3441 9569

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
211 PM CDT Tue Sep 1 2020

.DISCUSSION...
Impressive 24 hours rainfall amounts have been observed across the
region, with a widespread swath of 3-6 inches across much of
southeast OK into western AR. Mesonet/radar estimates also suggest
a few stripes of 6-8 inch amounts in parts of southeast OK. The
heaviest rainfall has shifted south of the region, for now, with
mainly steady light/moderate rainfall ongoing.

Will likely see a break in the rainfall for this evening, although
expect additional activity to develop and move into southeast OK
later tonight ahead of the slow moving positive tilt trof. Broadly
diffluent upper flow along with favorable dynamics from the right
entrance region of an upper jet streak will maintain broad lift,
with periodic rainfall expected mainly from southeast OK into
northwest AR on Wednesday/Wednesday night before tapering off
into Thursday. Given the unseasonably high PWATs (running 2 to 2.5
inches), additional heavy rainfall is likely.

Earlier Flash Flood Watch for parts of northeast OK was allowed to
expire at 1 pm, with the remaining watch ongoing for southeast OK
into parts of northwest AR through 12Z Thursday. May end up
adding McIntosh, Muskogee and Cherokee to the watch given the
previous rainfall, but will hold off that decision until the
official forecast goes out around 3 pm.

A cold front will sag into the region by Friday, with any
shower/storm chances remaining generally south of I-40. Slightly
drier low-level air is expected through the weekend, helping lows
to drop off into the 60s for most areas.

Extended models continue to disagree on timing of strong cold
front next week, with the GFS bringing it through Monday while the
ECMWF holds off another 24 hours. But, they both show it. That
said, expect considerably cooler weather for much of next week
along with increasing rain chances with the front. Could see some
lows dip into the 40s by mid-to-late week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   70  82  68  87 /  60  60  20  20
FSM   71  81  70  85 /  90  90  50  50
MLC   69  79  68  82 /  80  90  40  50
BVO   68  82  65  87 /  50  40  10  10
FYV   67  79  67  83 /  70  80  40  40
BYV   68  81  67  86 /  70  80  40  30
MKO   70  78  68  83 /  70  70  30  30
MIO   69  81  67  86 /  60  50  10  10
F10   68  78  67  83 /  70  70  30  30
HHW   71  80  70  82 /  80  90  60  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for OKZ049-053-069-
     072>076.

AR...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for ARZ010-011-019-
     020-029.

&&

LONG TERM....18

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
510 PM CDT Tue Sep 1 2020

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-021000-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
510 PM CDT Tue Sep 1 2020

...FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN INTO THURSDAY...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Southeast Oklahoma and West Central Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Southeast Oklahoma and West Central Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.
	RISK...Significant.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
Showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue across parts of
far southeast Oklahoma early this evening. There may be a brief
lull in precipitation later this evening before additional
showers and thunderstorms spread back into eastern Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas. The greater chances will be across southeast
Oklahoma into western Arkansas, where periods of heavy rainfall
will continue to increase flash flood as well as main-stem river
flooding conditions. Additional rainfall amounts in the 1 to 2
inch range with locally higher amounts will be possible over these
locations through tonight. A flash flood watch remains in effect
for these locations through Thursday morning.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Spotter Activation Not Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.
WEDNESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
THURSDAY and FRIDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
SATURDAY...No Hazards.
SUNDAY and MONDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Multiple rounds of thunderstorms with very heavy rainfall,
including the potential for flash flooding as well as main-stem
river flooding will be possible into the latter part of the week
before a cold front is forecast to move through Friday. Additional
showers and thunderstorms look to return late this weekend and
into the start of next week as another cold front looks to push
through the region.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
443 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0732 AM     FLASH FLOOD      SHADY POINT             35.13N 94.66W
09/01/2020                   LE FLORE           OK   STORM CHASER

            MULTIPLE EMPTY MOBILE HOMES FLOATED AND MOVED, ONE NEARLY
            UP TO THE ROAD.

&&

LACY