Severe Thunderstorm Warning 369, NWS Tulsa, OK

404 
WWUS54 KTSA 312326
SVSTSA

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
626 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2020

OKC117-312335-
/O.CAN.KTSA.SV.W.0369.000000T0000Z-200831T2345Z/
Pawnee OK-
626 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2020

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL PAWNEE COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore the warning has been cancelled.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
northeastern Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3648 9670 3650 9672 3671 9641 3644 9615
      3630 9656 3632 9657 3633 9657 3637 9652
      3639 9652 3640 9654 3637 9657 3637 9659
      3642 9663 3642 9669 3644 9672
TIME...MOT...LOC 2325Z 236DEG 30KT 3647 9653 

$$

OKC113-312345-
/O.CON.KTSA.SV.W.0369.000000T0000Z-200831T2345Z/
Osage OK-
626 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 PM CDT
FOR CENTRAL OSAGE COUNTY...

At 625 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 7 miles northeast of
Blackburn, moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and ping pong ball size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated. At 604PM, a 75 mph wind gust was reported 
         3 miles east northeast of Pawnee at a Mesonet station.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect 
         considerable tree damage. Wind damage is also likely to 
         mobile homes, roofs, and outbuildings.

Locations in or near the path include...
Hominy...                         Wynona...
Blackburn...                      

LAT...LON 3648 9670 3650 9672 3671 9641 3644 9615
      3630 9656 3632 9657 3633 9657 3637 9652
      3639 9652 3640 9654 3637 9657 3637 9659
      3642 9663 3642 9669 3644 9672
TIME...MOT...LOC 2325Z 236DEG 30KT 3647 9653 

HAIL...1.50IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

Lacy

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
243 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2020

.DISCUSSION...
A lot to unpack here in the short term, and finer details will
remain difficult to predict for the next few days. What is certain
is that the pattern remains very active into at least mid week and
the threat of excessive rainfall, in particular along and south of
I-40, remains high. Add to this the recent heavy rainfall that
impacted areas of southeast OK and west central AR, and the
potential for rapid onset flash flooding and mainstem river
flooding will be present. A Flash Flood Watch has been issued
generally south of I-40 through Wed night.

This afternoon, a couple of important features noted. First a
synoptic cold front was moving into an increasingly unstable and
now weakly capped environment over north central OK. Second, an
outflow boundary was located across southeast into central OK.
This boundary has remained fairly active through the day as subtle
forcing continues to interact with it resulting in persistent
band of showers and thunderstorms from south of OKC to LeFlore
County. Additional lift will be arriving this afternoon from the
west and expect these boundaries to become increasingly active
through the evening, with severe storms possible. A persistent
signal in HRRR depicting storms developing over SW-central OK and
growing upscale and moving into southeast OK and this could
become a favored area for damaging wind potential this evening.

Increasing low level flow after 00z will transport additional
deep subtropical moisture north and as such expect continued
forcing and additional convection to develop overnight with the
emphasis on southern half of the forecast area. The pattern will
remain active with a frontal zone in place in the general vicinity
of the Red River and a trough currently over the Northern Rockies
continuing to dig south and cut off to our west. The resultant SW
flow will keep the front zone active until at least Wed night it
appears, thus the extra long watch duration. By Thu morning
several inches of rain likely long/south of I-40.

The evolution of this system remains unclear though it's impact
should wane during the later part of the week one way or other.
Still appears a weak front will bring some drier air in from the
north by about Friday, but moisture looks to return to some degree
by Sunday/Monday ahead of a more robust surge of cooler and drier
air for next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   73  85  71  83 /  70  60  70  70
FSM   73  81  73  82 /  80  80  70  90
MLC   71  80  70  79 /  90  90  80  80
BVO   70  85  69  82 /  70  60  60  50
FYV   69  80  68  79 /  80  80  70  80
BYV   71  82  69  82 /  70  80  60  80
MKO   72  80  70  79 /  80  80  70  80
MIO   71  82  69  81 /  70  70  60  70
F10   71  80  69  80 /  80  70  70  80
HHW   74  83  72  81 /  80  80  80  80

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flash Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Thursday
     morning for OKZ049-053-072>076.

AR...Flash Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Thursday
     morning for ARZ019-020-029.

&&

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....14

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
523 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2020

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-011000-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
523 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2020

...SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE INTO TONIGHT...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

TORNADO.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma.
	ONSET...After 6 PM.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Southeast Oklahoma and West Central Arkansas.
	ONSET...Late Evening.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
Strong to severe thunderstorms have developed across central
Oklahoma late this afternoon to the south of a cold front. These
storms will move east into parts of eastern Oklahoma early this
evening, bringing a threat of damaging winds and large hail. An
isolated tornado will also be possible. These storms are likely to
weaken later this evening as they move east of Highway 75 into a
more stable airmass.

Additional thunderstorms are expected to move into parts of
southeast Oklahoma by late evening or overnight. A few of these
storms may also be severe. Heavy rainfall and flash flood
potential will also be a concern later tonight, especially as
these storms approach the Arkansas border, where heavy rain fell
late last night and this morning.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Likely.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.
TUESDAY and Wednesday...Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
THURSDAY through SATURDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
SUNDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
The unsettled weather pattern will continue on Tuesday and Wednesday
as an upper level trough approaches from the northwest. Multiple
rounds of thunderstorms with very heavy rainfall will be possible
including the potential for flash flooding. Main-stem river
flooding may also become an issue as more widespread rainfall
occurs over the duration of the event.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
453 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2020

OKZ054-312230-
Osage OK-
453 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL OSAGE COUNTY UNTIL
530 PM CDT...

At 453 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 3 miles north of
Shidler, moving east at 5 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Shidler...                        Grainola...
Foraker...                        Pearsonia...
Webb City...

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
northeastern Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3674 9674 3692 9675 3700 9638 3668 9637
TIME...MOT...LOC 2153Z 268DEG 6KT 3684 9666

Lacy

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
532 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2020

OKZ054-312300-
Osage OK-
532 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL OSAGE COUNTY UNTIL
600 PM CDT...

At 532 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 5 miles east of
Shidler. This storm was nearly stationary.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Pawhuska...                       Shidler...
Foraker...                        Pearsonia...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
northeastern Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3667 9669 3688 9667 3690 9633 3662 9634
TIME...MOT...LOC 2232Z 278DEG 4KT 3677 9657

Lacy