River Flood Warning 74, NWS Tulsa, OK

437 
WGUS84 KTSA 010103
FLSTSA

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
803 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2020

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in 
Oklahoma...

  Poteau River near Panama affecting Le Flore County.


OKC079-011315-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0074.200901T0600Z-200902T2050Z/
/PANO2.1.ER.200901T0600Z.200901T1800Z.200902T0824Z.NO/
803 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2020

...The Flood Warning is now in effect until Wednesday afternoon...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Poteau River near Panama.
* From late tonight to Wednesday afternoon.
* At 7:30 PM CDT Monday the stage was 25.4 feet.
* Flood stage is 29.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will rise above flood stage just after 
  midnight tonight to 31.1 feet early tomorrow afternoon. It will 
  then fall below flood stage early Wednesday morning. Additional 
  rises are possible by late in the week due to additional rainfall 
  in the forecast.
* Impact...At 31.0 feet, minor agricultural flooding occurs. 
  Williams Road east of Panama is flooded.


&&

LAT...LON 3540 9449 3540 9439 3523 9442 3504 9462
      3521 9470

$$

Lacy

097 
WGUS44 KTSA 010706
FLWTSA

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
206 AM CDT Tue Sep 1 2020

...Forecast flooding changed from Minor to Moderate severity for the 
following rivers in Oklahoma...

  Poteau River near Panama affecting Le Flore County.


OKC079-011915-
/O.CON.KTSA.FL.W.0074.000000T0000Z-200902T2050Z/
/PANO2.2.ER.200901T1200Z.200902T1200Z.200903T1012Z.NO/
206 AM CDT Tue Sep 1 2020

...Forecast flooding increased from Minor to Moderate severity...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Poteau River near Panama.
* Until Wednesday afternoon.
* At 1:30 AM CDT Tuesday the stage was 26.2 feet.
* Flood stage is 29.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will rise above flood stage this morning, 
  rising to 37.0 feet Wednesday morning. The river will then fall 
  below flood stage early Thursday morning.
* Impact...At 37.0 feet, extensive flooding of crop and pasturelands 
  occur between Shady Point and Arkoma. Many roads in the floodplain 
  become impassable.


&&

LAT...LON 3540 9449 3540 9439 3523 9442 3504 9462
      3521 9470

$$

RBD

660 
WGUS44 KTSA 011333
FLWTSA

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
833 AM CDT Tue Sep 1 2020

...Forecast flooding changed from Moderate to Major severity for the 
following rivers in Oklahoma...

  Poteau River near Panama affecting Le Flore County.


OKC079-020145-
/O.CON.KTSA.FL.W.0074.000000T0000Z-200902T2050Z/
/PANO2.3.ER.200901T0907Z.200902T1200Z.200903T1407Z.NO/
833 AM CDT Tue Sep 1 2020

...Forecast flooding increased from Moderate to Major severity...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Poteau River near Panama.
* Until Wednesday afternoon.
* At 7:30 AM CDT Tuesday the stage was 32.5 feet.
* Flood stage is 29.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and major flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 41.1 feet 
  tomorrow morning. It will then fall below flood stage late 
  Thursday morning.
* Impact...At 41.0 feet, very severe flooding occurs from near 
  Poteau to Arkoma. Up to 20,000 acres of farmland is flooded. 
  Several county roads crossing the Poteau River are totally 
  impassable. This is a dangerous and life threatening situation.


&&

LAT...LON 3540 9449 3540 9439 3523 9442 3504 9462
      3521 9470

$$

442 
WGUS84 KTSA 011943
FLSTSA

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
243 PM CDT Tue Sep 1 2020

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Oklahoma...

  Poteau River near Poteau affecting Le Flore County.

  Poteau River near Panama affecting Le Flore County.


OKC079-020745-
/O.CON.KTSA.FL.W.0075.000000T0000Z-200902T1557Z/
/PTAO2.2.ER.200901T1304Z.200902T0000Z.200902T1118Z.NO/
243 PM CDT Tue Sep 1 2020

...The Flood Warning remains in effect...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Poteau River near Poteau.
* Until Wednesday morning.
* At 1:45 PM CDT Tuesday the stage was 27.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 24.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 28.1 feet 
  this evening. It will then fall below flood stage tomorrow morning.
* Impact...At 28.0 feet, severe valley flooding affects croplands 
  and county roads from southeast of Poteau to the mouth of Brazil 
  Creek. Old Highway 112 may become impassable.


&&

LAT...LON 3513 9456 3506 9454 3495 9461 3495 9471
      3513 9468

$$

OKC079-020745-
/O.CON.KTSA.FL.W.0074.000000T0000Z-200902T2050Z/
/PANO2.3.ER.200901T0907Z.200902T1200Z.200904T0101Z.NO/
243 PM CDT Tue Sep 1 2020

...The Flood Warning remains in effect...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Poteau River near Panama.
* Until Wednesday afternoon.
* At 1:30 PM CDT Tuesday the stage was 36.7 feet.
* Flood stage is 29.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and major flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 41.3 feet 
  tomorrow morning. It will then fall below flood stage Thursday 
  evening.
* Impact...At 41.0 feet, very severe flooding occurs from near 
  Poteau to Arkoma. Up to 20,000 acres of farmland is flooded. 
  Several county roads crossing the Poteau River are totally 
  impassable. This is a dangerous and life threatening situation.


&&

LAT...LON 3540 9449 3540 9439 3523 9442 3504 9462
      3521 9470

$$

775 
WGUS84 KTSA 020102
FLSTSA

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
802 PM CDT Tue Sep 1 2020

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Oklahoma...

  Poteau River near Poteau affecting Le Flore County.

  Poteau River near Panama affecting Le Flore County.


OKC079-021315-
/O.CON.KTSA.FL.W.0075.000000T0000Z-200902T1557Z/
/PTAO2.2.ER.200901T1304Z.200902T0045Z.200902T1456Z.NO/
802 PM CDT Tue Sep 1 2020

...The Flood Warning remains in effect...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Poteau River near Poteau.
* Until Wednesday morning.
* At 7:45 PM CDT Tuesday the stage was 28.3 feet.
* Flood stage is 24.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river is cresting and is expected to fall below 
  flood stage late tomorrow morning and continue falling to 16.0 
  feet by Sunday evening.
* Impact...At 28.0 feet, severe valley flooding affects croplands 
  and county roads from southeast of Poteau to the mouth of Brazil 
  Creek. Old Highway 112 may become impassable.


&&

LAT...LON 3513 9456 3506 9454 3495 9461 3495 9471
      3513 9468

$$

OKC079-021315-
/O.CON.KTSA.FL.W.0074.000000T0000Z-200902T2050Z/
/PANO2.3.ER.200901T0907Z.200902T1200Z.200904T0100Z.NO/
802 PM CDT Tue Sep 1 2020

...The Flood Warning remains in effect...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Poteau River near Panama.
* Until Wednesday afternoon.
* At 7:30 PM CDT Tuesday the stage was 39.3 feet.
* Flood stage is 29.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and major flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 41.0 feet 
  tomorrow morning. It will then fall below flood stage by Thursday 
  evening.
* Impact...At 41.0 feet, very severe flooding occurs from near 
  Poteau to Arkoma. Up to 20,000 acres of farmland is flooded. 
  Several county roads crossing the Poteau River are totally 
  impassable. This is a dangerous and life threatening situation.


&&

LAT...LON 3540 9449 3540 9439 3523 9442 3504 9462
      3521 9470

$$

Lacy

840 
WGUS84 KTSA 020732
FLSTSA

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
232 AM CDT Wed Sep 2 2020

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Oklahoma...

  Poteau River near Panama affecting Le Flore County.


OKC079-021945-
/O.CON.KTSA.FL.W.0074.000000T0000Z-200902T2050Z/
/PANO2.3.ER.200901T0907Z.200902T1800Z.200904T0209Z.NO/
232 AM CDT Wed Sep 2 2020

...The Flood Warning remains in effect...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Poteau River near Panama.
* Until this afternoon.
* At 1:30 AM CDT Wednesday the stage was 40.4 feet.
* Flood stage is 29.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and major flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 41.0 feet 
  this afternoon. It will then fall below flood stage late Thursday 
  evening.
* Impact...At 41.0 feet, very severe flooding occurs from near 
  Poteau to Arkoma. Up to 20,000 acres of farmland is flooded. 
  Several county roads crossing the Poteau River are totally 
  impassable. This is a dangerous and life threatening situation.


&&

LAT...LON 3540 9449 3540 9439 3523 9442 3504 9462
      3521 9470

$$

RBD

353 
WGUS84 KTSA 021430
FLSTSA

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
930 AM CDT Wed Sep 2 2020

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in 
Oklahoma...

  Poteau River near Poteau affecting Le Flore County.

  Poteau River near Panama affecting Le Flore County.


OKC079-030100-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0075.000000T0000Z-200903T0057Z/
/PTAO2.1.ER.200901T1304Z.200902T0200Z.200902T1639Z.NO/
930 AM CDT Wed Sep 2 2020

...The Flood Warning is now in effect until this evening...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Poteau River near Poteau.
* Until this evening.
* At 8:45 AM CDT Wednesday the stage was 25.7 feet.
* Flood stage is 24.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring but the river is falling.
* Forecast...The river is expected to continue to fall below flood 
  stage early this afternoon and continue falling to 10.9 feet 
  Thursday morning.
* Impact...At 26.0 feet, moderate valley flooding affects croplands 
  and farm roads from southeast of Poteau to the mouth of Brazil 
  Creek.


&&

LAT...LON 3513 9456 3506 9454 3495 9461 3495 9471
      3513 9468

$$

OKC079-030230-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0074.000000T0000Z-200904T0650Z/
/PANO2.3.ER.200901T0907Z.200902T1330Z.200903T2302Z.NO/
930 AM CDT Wed Sep 2 2020

...The Flood Warning is now in effect until early Friday morning...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Poteau River near Panama.
* Until late Thursday night.
* At 8:30 AM CDT Wednesday the stage was 41.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 29.0 feet.
* Major flooding is occurring and major flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river is cresting and is expected to begin falling 
  late this afternoon. The river is forecast to fall below flood 
  stage tomorrow evening and continue falling to 21.3 feet Friday 
  morning.
* Impact...At 41.0 feet, very severe flooding occurs from near 
  Poteau to Arkoma. Up to 20,000 acres of farmland is flooded. 
  Several county roads crossing the Poteau River are totally 
  impassable. This is a dangerous and life threatening situation.


&&

LAT...LON 3540 9449 3540 9439 3523 9442 3504 9462
      3521 9470

$$

026 
WGUS84 KTSA 021917
FLSTSA

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
217 PM CDT Wed Sep 2 2020

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Oklahoma...

  Poteau River near Poteau affecting Le Flore County.

  Poteau River near Panama affecting Le Flore County.


OKC079-030100-
/O.CON.KTSA.FL.W.0075.000000T0000Z-200903T0057Z/
/PTAO2.1.ER.200901T1304Z.200902T0200Z.200902T1846Z.NO/
217 PM CDT Wed Sep 2 2020

...The Flood Warning remains in effect...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Poteau River near Poteau.
* Until this evening.
* At 1:45 PM CDT Wednesday the stage was 24.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 24.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring but the river is falling.
* Forecast...The river is expected to continue to fall below flood 
  stage this afternoon and continue falling to 10.9 feet Thursday 
  morning.
* Impact...At 24.0 feet, minor valley flooding affects croplands and 
  farm roads from southeast of Poteau to the mouth of Brazil Creek.


&&

LAT...LON 3513 9456 3506 9454 3495 9461 3495 9471
      3513 9468

$$

OKC079-030730-
/O.CON.KTSA.FL.W.0074.000000T0000Z-200904T0650Z/
/PANO2.3.ER.200901T0907Z.200902T1745Z.200903T2131Z.NO/
217 PM CDT Wed Sep 2 2020

...The Flood Warning remains in effect...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Poteau River near Panama.
* Until late Thursday night.
* At 1:30 PM CDT Wednesday the stage was 41.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 29.0 feet.
* Major flooding is occurring and major flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river is cresting and is expected to begin falling 
  this evening. The river is forecast to fall below flood stage 
  tomorrow late afternoon and continue falling to 18.9 feet Friday 
  morning.
* Impact...At 41.0 feet, very severe flooding occurs from near 
  Poteau to Arkoma. Up to 20,000 acres of farmland is flooded. 
  Several county roads crossing the Poteau River are totally 
  impassable. This is a dangerous and life threatening situation.


&&

LAT...LON 3540 9449 3540 9439 3523 9442 3504 9462
      3521 9470

$$

793 
WGUS84 KTSA 030100
FLSTSA

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
800 PM CDT Wed Sep 2 2020

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in 
Oklahoma...

  Poteau River near Panama affecting Le Flore County.


OKC079-031300-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0074.000000T0000Z-200904T0806Z/
/PANO2.2.ER.200901T0907Z.200902T1745Z.200904T0205Z.NO/
800 PM CDT Wed Sep 2 2020

...The Flood Warning is now in effect until early Friday morning...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Poteau River near Panama.
* Until late Thursday night.
* At 7:30 PM CDT Wednesday the stage was 40.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 29.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring but the river is falling.
* Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage late 
  Thursday evening and continue falling to 19.8 feet Monday evening.
* Impact...At 41.0 feet, very severe flooding occurs from near 
  Poteau to Arkoma. Up to 20,000 acres of farmland is flooded. 
  Several county roads crossing the Poteau River are totally 
  impassable. This is a dangerous and life threatening situation.


&&

LAT...LON 3540 9449 3540 9439 3523 9442 3504 9462
      3521 9470

$$

05

670 
WGUS84 KTSA 030642
FLSTSA

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
142 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2020

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in 
Oklahoma...

  Poteau River near Panama affecting Le Flore County.


OKC079-031845-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0074.000000T0000Z-200904T1123Z/
/PANO2.2.ER.200901T0907Z.200902T1745Z.200904T0523Z.NO/
142 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2020

...The Flood Warning is now in effect until tomorrow morning...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Poteau River near Panama.
* Until Friday morning.
* At 1:30 AM CDT Thursday the stage was 40.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 29.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage just 
  after midnight early Friday morning and continue falling to 19.8 
  feet early Saturday morning.
* Impact...At 39.0 feet, severe depths of flooding of crop and 
  pasturelands occur from Shady Point to Arkoma. Several roads 
  crossing the Poteau River are totally impassable.


&&

LAT...LON 3540 9449 3540 9439 3523 9442 3504 9462
      3521 9470

$$

RBD

775 
WGUS84 KTSA 031349
FLSTSA

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
849 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2020

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in 
Oklahoma...

  Poteau River near Panama affecting Le Flore County.


OKC079-040200-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0074.000000T0000Z-200904T1454Z/
/PANO2.2.ER.200901T0907Z.200902T1745Z.200904T0854Z.NO/
849 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2020

...The Flood Warning is now in effect until late tomorrow morning...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Poteau River near Panama.
* Until Friday morning.
* At 8:30 AM CDT Thursday the stage was 38.3 feet.
* Flood stage is 29.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage before 
  dawn Friday and will continue falling to 19.8 feet early Saturday 
  morning.
* Impact...At 39.0 feet, severe depths of flooding of crop and 
  pasturelands occur from Shady Point to Arkoma. Several roads 
  crossing the Poteau River are totally impassable.


&&

LAT...LON 3540 9449 3540 9439 3523 9442 3504 9462
      3521 9470

$$

265 
WGUS84 KTSA 031912
FLSTSA

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
212 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2020

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in 
Oklahoma...

  Poteau River near Panama affecting Le Flore County.


OKC079-040715-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0074.000000T0000Z-200904T1650Z/
/PANO2.2.ER.200901T0907Z.200902T1745Z.200904T1050Z.NO/
212 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2020

...The Flood Warning is now in effect until late tomorrow morning...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Poteau River near Panama.
* Until Friday morning.
* At 1:30 PM CDT Thursday the stage was 37.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 29.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage late 
  tonight and continue falling to near 20.0 feet Sunday morning.
* Impact...At 37.0 feet, extensive flooding of crop and pasturelands 
  occur between Shady Point and Arkoma. Many roads in the floodplain 
  become impassable.


&&

LAT...LON 3540 9449 3540 9439 3523 9442 3504 9462
      3521 9470

$$

295 
WGUS84 KTSA 040114
FLSTSA

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
814 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2020

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in 
Oklahoma...

  Poteau River near Panama affecting Le Flore County.


OKC079-041315-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0074.000000T0000Z-200905T0340Z/
/PANO2.2.ER.200901T0907Z.200902T1745Z.200904T2140Z.NO/
814 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2020

...The Flood Warning is now in effect until late tomorrow evening...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Poteau River near Panama.
* Until Friday evening.
* At 7:30 PM CDT Thursday the stage was 35.5 feet.
* Flood stage is 29.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage 
  tomorrow afternoon, and continue falling to 22.5 feet Tuesday 
  evening.
* Impact...At 35.0 feet, moderate flooding of agricultural lands 
  occur from Panama to Arkoma. Some local and county roads in the 
  floodplain become impassable.


&&

LAT...LON 3540 9449 3540 9439 3523 9442 3504 9462
      3521 9470

$$

69

851 
WGUS84 KTSA 041317
FLSTSA

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
817 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2020

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in 
Oklahoma...

  Poteau River near Panama affecting Le Flore County.


OKC079-050130-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0074.000000T0000Z-200905T0440Z/
/PANO2.1.ER.200901T0907Z.200902T1745Z.200904T2240Z.NO/
817 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2020

...The Flood Warning is now in effect until late this evening...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Poteau River near Panama.
* Until this evening.
* At 7:30 AM CDT Friday the stage was 32.2 feet.
* Flood stage is 29.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage late 
  this afternoon and continue falling to 22.7 feet Wednesday morning.
* Impact...At 33.0 feet, moderate flooding of agricultural lands 
  occurs between Shady Point and Arkoma. Williams Road east of 
  Panama and some local farm roads are flooded.


&&

LAT...LON 3540 9449 3540 9439 3523 9442 3504 9462
      3521 9470

$$

399 
WGUS84 KTSA 042026
FLSTSA

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
326 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2020

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in 
Oklahoma...

  Poteau River near Panama affecting Le Flore County.


OKC079-050515-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0074.000000T0000Z-200905T0512Z/
/PANO2.1.ER.200901T0907Z.200902T1745Z.200904T2312Z.NO/
326 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2020

...The Flood Warning is now in effect until just after midnight 
tonight...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Poteau River near Panama.
* Until late tonight.
* At 2:30 PM CDT Friday the stage was 29.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 29.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring, but the river is falling.
* Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage this 
  evening and continue falling.
* Impact...At 29.0 feet, minor agricultural flooding occurs.


&&

LAT...LON 3540 9449 3540 9439 3523 9442 3504 9462
      3521 9470

$$

320 
WGUS84 KTSA 042317
FLSTSA

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
617 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2020

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Oklahoma...

  Poteau River near Panama affecting Le Flore County.

OKC079-050030-
/O.CAN.KTSA.FL.W.0074.000000T0000Z-200904T2317Z/
/PANO2.1.ER.700119T1209Z.700119T1211Z.700119T1214Z.NO/
617 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2020

...The Flood Warning for the Poteau River near Panama has been 
cancelled...

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the Poteau River near Panama.
* At 5:30 PM CDT Friday the stage was 28.7 feet.
* Flood stage is 29.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river has fallen below flood stage and is expected 
  to keep falling.


&&

LAT...LON 3540 9449 3540 9439 3523 9442 3504 9462
      3521 9470

$$

MAB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1250 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2020

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain possible across
the CWA this afternoon with scattered to broken mid and high
clouds forecast. This evening and overnight tonight...additional
convection is forecast to develop and move across the CWA and
remain possible into the morning hours Tuesday. Within the
stronger convection...periods of MVFR and heavy rain will be
possible. By late tonight through Tuesday morning...IFR/MVFR
conditions are forecast to become common over the CWA with rain
showers and VCTS remaining possible through the end of the TAF
period over Southeast Oklahoma into Northwest Arkansas. Winds
through the period look to be variable within the convection
otherwise...much of the region should remain southerly through the
period. A surface frontal boundary looks to stall over far
Northeast Oklahoma which could allow for more northerly winds for
KBVO tonight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1057 AM CDT Mon Aug 31 2020/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
Several factors remain in play for the rest of today with regards
to precip potentials and afternoon temps across Eastern Oklahoma
and Northwest Arkansas. At mid morning...a 30-35KT low level jet
streak continued across Eastern Oklahoma over an area of low/mid
level warm advection combined within an area of deeper moisture.
In response...continued development of showers and thunderstorms
were ongoing across much of the CWA...moving from west to east.
This activity was ahead of a surface frontal boundary positioned
from Northwest Oklahoma through Eastern Kansas and into Northwest
Missouri...slowly sagging southeast toward the CWA. And...finally
a secondary boundary associated with an ongoing MCS over Western
Missouri was pushing south southeast toward Northwest Arkansas.

Through this afternoon...the low level jet streak is expected to
weaken...though continued warm advection combined with the deeper
moisture should allow for shower and thunderstorm chances to be
possible over the region. The greater potentials look to be over
East Central into Southeast Oklahoma as well as West Central
Arkansas. Additional showers and thunderstorms may also be
possible for far Northwest Arkansas in response to the approaching
MCS...though the majority of which should remain east/northeast
of the CWA. Finally...the surface frontal boundary is forecast to
reach Osage county in Northeast Oklahoma late afternoon and become
nearly stationary over Northeast Oklahoma this evening. This will
allow for another round of thunderstorms to develop and spread
across the CWA late afternoon/this evening.

Severe potentials will remain possible with the possible
interactions of multiple boundaries combined with dewpoints in the
70s over the region. These potentials look to be somewhat depending
on how far south the MCS boundary can set up and the frontal
boundary can set up over the CWA. However...damaging wind...large
hail and also a low tornado potential will remain possible with
the greater potentials with the late afternoon/evening convection.
Also possible will be locally heavy rainfall and an increase in
flash flood conditions...especially over locations that see
training storms through this afternoon and with the additional
convection forecast this evening/tonight.

With the ongoing precip and additional development forecast
through this afternoon...afternoon temps look to vary from 80s
under convection to 90s where clouds can break. At this time parts
of Northeast Oklahoma...west of Highway 75 and also far Southeast
Oklahoma may have the greater chances of reaching into the 90s
while...while Northwest Arkansas look to have the greater chance
for staying in the 80s. Moisture pooling along the approaching
surface frontal boundary combining with overall dewpoints in the
70s will aid in heat index values in the 100 to near 105 degree
range for the warmer locations. There may be a brief period where
advisory criteria can be reached though not expecting an advisory
to be issued at this time.

For the morning update...have adjusted hourly
pops/wx/temp/dewpoint grids for this afternoon based on the
mentioned above and latest trends/ingested observations. Will
continue to monitor conditions closely for additional updates.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   92  73  85  71 /  40  70  60  50
FSM   90  73  81  73 /  70  80  80  50
MLC   91  71  80  70 /  60  90  90  70
BVO   91  70  85  69 /  30  80  60  50
FYV   87  69  80  68 /  70  80  80  50
BYV   89  71  82  69 /  70  70  80  50
MKO   88  72  80  70 /  70  80  70  50
MIO   88  71  82  69 /  60  80  60  50
F10   90  71  80  69 /  70  80  70  60
HHW   92  74  83  72 /  50  80  90  80

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

AVIATION.....20

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
136 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2020

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-011030-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
136 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2020

...SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE INTO TONIGHT...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.
TORNADO.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma.
	ONSET...After 7 PM.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Southeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...This Evening.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DANGEROUS HEAT.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Parts of Eastern Oklahoma.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain possible across
eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas through this afternoon. A
limited severe potential will be possible with this activity with
the greater potential over parts of east central into southeast
Oklahoma. Damaging wind and isolated large hail will be possible.
Additional thunderstorms are forecast to develop along a surface
frontal boundary to the west and spread across the region this
evening and overnight tonight. A limited to elevated severe
potential will remain possible through tonight mainly south of
Interstate 44. Damaging wind...large hail and also a low tornado
potential will be possible this evening and tonight.

Locally heavy rainfall will also be possible with the afternoon
showers and thunderstorms. A more widespread chance of heavy
rainfall as well as increasing flash flood conditions will be
possible with the convection this evening and tonight. Forecast
rainfall amounts in the 1 to 3 inch range will be possible over
parts of southeast Oklahoma into parts of west central Arkansas. A
flash flood watch may be issued for these locations later this
afternoon.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Likely.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.
TUESDAY...Severe Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
WEDNESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
SUNDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
The unsettled weather pattern will continue on Tuesday and Wednesday
as an upper level trough approaches from the northwest. Multiple
rounds of strong thunderstorms with very heavy rainfall will be
possible including the potential for flash flooding. Main-stem
river flooding may also become an issue as more widespread rainfall
occurs over the duration of the event.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.