Severe Thunderstorm Warning 200, NWS Tulsa, OK

668 
WWUS54 KTSA 221046
SVSTSA

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
546 AM CDT Fri May 22 2020

OKC037-107-113-117-143-221115-
/O.CON.KTSA.SV.W.0200.000000T0000Z-200522T1115Z/
Osage OK-Creek OK-Pawnee OK-Tulsa OK-Okfuskee OK-
546 AM CDT Fri May 22 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 AM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN OSAGE...CREEK...SOUTHEASTERN PAWNEE...WEST CENTRAL
TULSA AND NORTHWESTERN OKFUSKEE COUNTIES...

At 545 AM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 7 miles north of Blackburn to near Oilton to near
Sparks, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated. At 535 AM...the Pawnee Mesonet station 3 
         miles east northeast of Pawnee reported a 65 mph wind gust.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations in or near the path include...
Sand Springs...                   Bristow...
Sapulpa...                        Hominy...
Cleveland...                      Mannford...
Drumright...                      Barnsdall...
Boley...                          Kellyville...
Oilton...                         Depew...
Paden...                          Wynona...
Jennings...                       Westport...
Osage...                          Slick...
Hallett...                        Blackburn...

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 178 and 210.
 
LAT...LON 3661 9658 3659 9608 3594 9612 3586 9618
      3585 9619 3583 9619 3545 9644 3546 9644
      3546 9647 3543 9650 3545 9655 3544 9657
      3540 9653 3541 9658 3540 9662 3616 9662
      3616 9682 3618 9682
TIME...MOT...LOC 1045Z 286DEG 30KT 3648 9657 3608 9656 3562 9681 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Lacy

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
314 AM CDT Fri May 22 2020

.DISCUSSION...

The main forecast concern will be severe/heavy rain potential
today and tonight.

A shortwave trough, currently over the central/southern High
Plains, will eject northeast across the central lower Plains
today. At the surface, a warm front extends east/southeast from a
surface low over the northern TX Panhandle across eastern OK. A
cold pool generated by an ongoing MCS over NW OK/SW KS is surging
toward the south and east.

The forecast for today and into tonight will hedge largely on the
mesoscale details, namely the track of the ongoing MCS and the
position of the outflow boundary by this afternoon. The current
gridded forecast reflects the latest trends in the data, but
subtle changes may be needed by later today.

The ongoing MCS is expected to track east/southeast across
northeast OK this morning and into northwest AR by early
afternoon. Severe potential will be low as the storms enter our
far western areas early this morning, but will likely ramp up thru
the morning with daytime heating and advancing warm front ahead of
the feature. Damaging winds and possibly a quick spin-up tornado
are possible, especially where the outflow intersects the warm
front. As we head into the afternoon, the left over outflow
boundary should be draped from west central AR across southeast OK
where more convection is likely to be focused. H5 winds will
increase some during the day in the basal portion of the ejecting
shortwave trough, so the initial cellular convection could be
supercellular. Any discrete storms that have time to interact with
the outflow boundary could produce a tornado, along with large
hail and damaging winds. The latest CAMs suggest that cellular
mode may not last long, growing upscale into a southeastward
moving complex by late this afternoon or early this evening. Other
scattered convection is likely to develop this evening across
eastern OK/northwest AR as the low level jet interacts with the
outflow boundary. The greatest heavy rain potential will exist
across northeast OK and northwest AR thru early afternoon,
especially in areas that get affected by a developing band of
storms in association with the retreating warm front ahead of the
MCS and by the MCS itself. As we head into the afternoon and
evening, the heavy rain potential shifts down across southeast OK,
where the outflow boundary could focus multiple rounds of
convection over the same areas.

The beginning of the holiday weekend looks fairly tame, with our
area in the wake of the ejecting shortwave trough and rising
heights aloft. Expect potential for rain/storms to increase,
however, by the end of the weekend as an upper trough approaches
from the west. Unsettled weather continues into next week as an
upper low closes off overhead and becomes cutoff from the flow. We
may finally see an end to precip chances by the following weekend
when a cold front is expected to push thru, but we'll just have to
wait and see. While organized severe weather is not expected,
pockets of locally heavy rainfall, falling on areas likely to have
received rounds of heavy rainfall previous, may begin to cause
river flooding and localized flash flooding.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   81  66  86  70 /  90  30  20  20
FSM   82  66  88  69 /  70  50  20  10
MLC   82  66  85  69 /  70  40  20  10
BVO   78  65  85  69 /  90  30  20  20
FYV   78  65  84  68 /  70  50  20  10
BYV   77  64  84  67 /  80  40  20  10
MKO   81  66  84  69 /  90  40  20  10
MIO   77  64  84  69 /  90  50  20  20
F10   81  66  84  69 /  80  30  20  10
HHW   83  67  85  69 /  60  40  20  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

LONG TERM....30

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
451 AM CDT Fri May 22 2020

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-231000-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
451 AM CDT Fri May 22 2020

...SEVERE STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE TODAY...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.
TORNADO.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Western Arkansas.
	ONSET...Northeast Oklahoma this morning, Southeast Oklahoma and
			Western Arkansas this afternoon and early evening.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Significant.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Western Arkansas.
	ONSET...Northeast Oklahoma this morning, Southeast Oklahoma and
			Western Arkansas this afternoon.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...West of highway 75 this morning, Southeast
							Oklahoma and West Central Arkansas this
							afternoon and evening.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Far Northeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas, portions of
			Southeast Oklahoma.
	ONSET...Northeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas this morning into
			the early afternoon, Southeast Oklahoma this afternoon
			evening.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Far Northeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas, portions of
			Southeast Oklahoma.
	ONSET...Northeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas this morning into
			the early afternoon, Southeast Oklahoma this afternoon
			evening .

DISCUSSION...

A complex of storms will sweep across northeast Oklahoma this
morning and into western Arkansas by early this afternoon.
Damaging winds and a quick spin-up tornado are possible with these
storms. More storms are expected to develop from west central
Arkansas down into southeast Oklahoma along an outflow boundary
this afternoon. These storms could become severe quickly, and will
pose a large hail, damaging wind and tornado risk while cells
remain discrete. A strong tornado is possible. Widely scattered
storms are possible during the evening across eastern Oklahoma
with some threat for large hail and damaging winds. Locally heavy
rainfall and flash flooding is possible across northeast Oklahoma
and northwest Arkansas this morning into the early afternoon, and
across southeast Oklahoma this afternoon and evening.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.
SATURDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
TUESDAY THRU THURSDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

An unsettled weather pattern will bring daily thunderstorm chances
mainly from the latter part of the holiday weekend on into the
following week. While organized severe weather is not expected,
pockets of locally heavy rainfall, falling on areas likely to have
received rounds of heavy rainfall previous, may begin to cause
river flooding and localized flash flooding by early next week.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

Lacy

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
459 AM CDT Fri May 22 2020

OKZ054-059-221045-
Osage OK-Pawnee OK-
459 AM CDT Fri May 22 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN OSAGE AND PAWNEE COUNTIES
UNTIL 545 AM CDT...

At 459 AM CDT, strong thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 7 miles west of Hardy to 5 miles north of Marland to 4
miles north of Lake Mcmurtry. Movement was east at 40 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations in or near the path include...
Pawnee...                         Fairfax...
Shidler...                        Jennings...
Ralston...                        Burbank...
Hallett...                        Blackburn...
Maramec...                        Elgin...
Skedee...                         Grainola...
Foraker...                        Pearsonia...
Sooner Lake...                    Southern Kaw Lake...
Webb City...                      Apperson...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Tulsa.

&&

LAT...LON 3700 9626 3699 9626 3616 9657 3616 9682
      3624 9682 3625 9692 3633 9693 3634 9703
      3651 9703 3658 9689 3660 9692 3659 9705
      3668 9706 3670 9703 3668 9694 3675 9689
      3674 9683 3677 9682 3678 9675 3700 9675
TIME...MOT...LOC 0959Z 269DEG 33KT 3697 9693 3664 9714 3624 9719