High Wind Watch 5, NWS Great Falls, MT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
444 AM MST Mon Mar 2 2020

...AVIATION SECTION UPDATED...

.SYNOPSIS...

Brisk westerly flow will reside over the region through mid-week.
During this time, expect windy conditions over the northern and
central plains, with a chance of snow over the central mountains.
Generally above normal temperatures are expected across the region,
with the warmest temperatures expected toward the end of the work
week. Cooler temperatures and precipitation chances return for the
weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Wednesday Night...Shortwave ridging is quickly being
replaced by an unsettled northwesterly flow aloft. This has brought
some clouds and a few snow showers along the Divide, while mostly
clear skies are being observed elsewhere. A tight pressure gradient
associated with a surface low in Canada has kept warning criteria
winds over the Rocky Mountain Front and the immediate adjoining
plains. A station near browning recorded a 76 mph wind gust earlier
and the Cut Bank ASOS peaked at 64 mph. It is anticipated that this
will continue through mid to late morning, so will leave the High
Wind Warning in effect through its noon expiration time. As the
pressure gradient relaxes, H700 winds will begin to increase. This
will keep the windy condtions going along the Front and the
Central/North-central plains through this evening but not expecting
sustained winds or gusts to exceed warning criteria at this time.
Cloud cover will be on the increase today as a disturbance
approaches the region by way of the northwesterly flow aloft.
Precipitation will initially be confined to areas along the Divide
but the disturbance may bring some snow showers to the central and
southwest mountains this evening into tonight. Lower elevations
should remain dry but a stray sprinkle/flurry can't be ruled out.
Afternoon temperatures will warm into the 40s for most location,
with lows in the 20s and 30s tonight.

Tuesday then sees lingering northwest flow aloft begin to shift to a
more westerly flow. The result will be warming temperatures, some
mountain snow showers, and continued breezy to windy conditons.
Strong winds are again possible during this time period for much of
the CWA. Confidence is only moderate and not high enough for any
wind products at this time. Another passing disturbance slides in
from the north and strengthens the westerly for Tuesday night into
Wednesday. Right now this is the time period of the expected
strongest winds and the most widespread impacts. A weak frontal
boundary with this feature could also bring more mountain snow
showers, and perhaps some scattered shower activity to the lower
elevations. Impacts from snow may be found along the Rocky Mountain
Front for Tuesday into Wednesday, especially at and above pass
level. With the mentioned front temperatures Wednesday may be
slightly cooler, but still above seasonal normals.

Thursday through Sunday...The end of the work week will see warming
temperatures and mainly dry conditions. Winds may be breezy at
times, although not quite as windy as the start of the week. Friday
looks to be the warmest day of the upcoming week with highs in the
60s for many locations in the north and central. A broad scale
trough then looks to push across the western US late in the week
possible brining a cool down and the next chances for more
widespread precipitation. A cold front with this system could
transition the precipitation into snow Saturday night into Sunday
for many locations. This system will continue to be monitored for
potential impacts to travel and those outdoors. Temperatures also go
on a cooling trend for the upcoming weekend, possibly returning to
below seasonal normals by Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Updated 442 AM MST Mon Mar 02 2020 (02/12Z TAF Period)

An increasingly moist northwesterly flow aloft will keep mountain
top obscuring clouds and some snow along the Continental Divide and
over the mountains of the southwest. Ceilings are expected to
gradually lower toward MVFR levels for the central/southwest by this
afternoon and evening but precipitation should most remain over
mountain areas. Scattered low level wind shear through around 17Z
and then again after 2Z. Winds over the plains will still be quite
gusty, especially for KCTB.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  46  34  54  37 /   0  10   0   0
CTB  44  32  49  35 /   0  10  10  20
HLN  43  31  52  34 /  10  10  10   0
BZN  40  27  49  29 /   0  20   0   0
WYS  27   4  33  15 /   0  30  30  10
DLN  39  27  45  29 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  47  30  52  35 /  10  10  10  10
LWT  42  31  47  32 /   0  10  20   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning until noon MST today Eastern Glacier...
Northern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls

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