River Flood Warning 61, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
444 PM EDT Tue Sep 15 2020

.NEAR AND SHORT TERM [Through Thursday Night]...

Hurricane Sally continues to move slowly northward possibly
making landfall just west of Pensacola after daybreak Wednesday
and then gradually turning more to the northeast into central
Georgia by Thursday night. Impacts from Sally will extend well
north and east of the center and continue across our area. These
impacts include very heavy rainfall potentially leading to
significant flash flooding especially along and west of the
rivers, tropical storm force winds along the immediate coast,
minor storm surge flooding above normally dry ground, the
potential for a few tornadoes, and hazardous beach and marine
conditions. Please refer to the Hurricane Local Statement on our
webpage at www.weather.gov/tae for all current watches/warnings
and impacts from Hurricane Sally. The biggest change from our
previous forecast package is that we've expanded the Flash Flood
Watch to include most of our west central Georgia counties along
with Gadsden County in Florida. The watch is in effect through
Wednesday night.

.LONG TERM [Friday Through Tuesday]...

Sally or it's remnants is forecast to be moving northeastward
across the Carolina's on Friday with a continuation of high rain
chances locally due to a moist southwest flow off the gulf. Over
the weekend, a cold front will approach from the north and
possibly push through our CWA over the weekend before stalling
just to our south. However, models hint of an overrunning event
setting up with clouds and rain chances continuing into early next
week. Temperatures will be below seasonal normals through the
extended period.

&&

.AVIATION...
[Through 18Z Wednesday]

Outer rainbands from Hurricane Sally continue to move thru the
area, with ECP and TLH getting impacted by +RA/gusty SE winds.
IFR cigs are ongoing at those terminals, where occasional MVFR
vsbys are possible within stronger bands. These conds should
continue thru the TAF (ECP may see WS020/13045KT tmrw). Elsewhere,
VFR is prevailing, but a 18-22Z TEMPO group was added for MVFR
conds and a 12-18Z PROB30 group at VLD and ABY for 4SM with RA.

&&

.MARINE...

Hurricane Sally will continue tracking slowly northward tonight
and is forecast to make landfall west of our local waters
Wednesday morning. Dangerous boating and beach conditions will
continue, especially across our western segments until at least
Thursday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Nighttime dispersion values will be elevated the next few nights
due to higher than normal transport winds due to Hurricane Sally.
There are no fire weather concerns.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Rain bands will continue to move onshore over the next few days
as Sally slowing moves northward and then northeast around the
western and northern periphery of our forecast area. Therefore,
the threat for flooding will continue and the Flash Flood Watch
has been expanded to include most of our west central Georgia
counties along with Gadsden County Florida. WPC has a moderate
risk for flash flooding for the western Florida Panhandle and
southeast Alabama through Wednesday night.

As Coastal Flood Advisory continues for the entire coast as 1 to
3 feet of storm surge will be possible through Wednesday. River
levels are rising slowly and we are monitoring them closely. River
flooding may become an issue later this week.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is requested. Spotters should safely report
significant weather conditions and/or damage (while following all
local, state, and CDC guidelines) by calling the office or tweeting
us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   73  83  74  85  73 /  80  90  80  80  50
Panama City   74  83  76  85  74 /  90 100  90  80  40
Dothan        71  78  71  81  70 /  80  90  90  80  40
Albany        71  78  73  82  72 /  70  90  80  90  50
Valdosta      73  81  73  84  73 /  60  80  60  90  40
Cross City    73  85  74  86  75 /  60  80  60  90  60
Apalachicola  76  84  77  85  75 /  90  90  90  80  50

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for Calhoun-Central
     Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-Gadsden-
     Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Jackson-
     Liberty-North Walton-South Walton-Washington.

     Tropical Storm Warning for Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal
     Gulf-Holmes-Inland Bay-North Walton-South Walton-
     Washington.

     High Rip Current Risk through Thursday evening for Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ Wednesday for
     Coastal Bay-Coastal Dixie-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-
     Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-Coastal Wakulla-South
     Walton.

     High Surf Advisory until 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ Wednesday for
     Coastal Bay-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for Baker-Calhoun-
     Clay-Decatur-Dougherty-Early-Lee-Miller-Mitchell-Quitman-
     Randolph-Seminole-Terrell.

AL...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for Coffee-Dale-
     Geneva-Henry-Houston.

     Tropical Storm Warning for Coffee-Geneva.

GM...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for Coastal Waters
     From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-
     Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Apalachicola FL out 20
     NM-Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton
     County Line FL out 20 NM.

     Tropical Storm Warning for Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River
     to Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal waters from Mexico
     Beach to Apalachicola FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from
     Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL out 20 NM-
     Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60
     NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Mexico Beach FL from 20 to
     60 NM-Waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton County
     Line FL from 20 to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for Apalachee Bay
     or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to Ochlockonee River FL
     out to 20 Nm-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton
     Beach FL out 20 NM.

&&

NEAR TERM...Barry
SHORT TERM...Barry
LONG TERM...Barry
AVIATION...IG
MARINE...Barry
FIRE WEATHER...Barry
HYDROLOGY...Barry

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1212 PM EDT Tue Sep 15 2020

FLZ016-017-026-027-115-118-127-151700-
Liberty FL-Gadsden FL-Coastal Wakulla FL-Coastal Jefferson FL-
Coastal Franklin FL-Inland Wakulla FL-Leon FL-
1212 PM EDT Tue Sep 15 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WAKULLA...SOUTHWESTERN GADSDEN...
LIBERTY...SOUTHWESTERN JEFFERSON...SOUTHWESTERN LEON AND NORTHEASTERN
FRANKLIN COUNTIES UNTIL 100 PM EDT...

At 1212 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 11 miles southeast of Blountstown to 16 miles
south of St. Marks. Movement was north at 10 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
St. Marks, Woodville, Crawfordville, Tallahassee, Wakulla, Bristol,
Sopchoppy, Lake Bradford, Rock Bluff, Jewel Fire Tower, Shadeville,
Leon Sinks, Juniper, Wakulla Springs, Vilas, Central City, Eight Mile
Pond, Panacea, Poplar Camp and Medart.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 700 PM EDT for Big Bend of
and the Panhandle of Florida.

LAT...LON 3000 8456 3001 8455 3001 8459 3018 8501
      3039 8501 3040 8503 3041 8501 3042 8503
      3044 8498 3045 8500 3047 8499 3048 8500
      3058 8496 3060 8494 3032 8408 3019 8407
      3019 8403 3002 8407 2999 8426 2988 8428
TIME...MOT...LOC 1612Z 183DEG 9KT 3031 8493 2993 8424

42-DVD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
326 PM EDT TUE SEP 15 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 WNW BRANNONVILLE      30.23N 85.61W
09/15/2020                   BAY                FL   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            COUNTY ROAD 390 WAS REPORTED TO BE FLOODED
            NEAR HARVARD BLVD.

&&

RH

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