River Flood Warning 52, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1050 AM EDT Fri Apr 24 2020

.UPDATE...

The current forecast remains on track, only a few minor changes
this morning to adjust for the latest model runs. Some shower and
thunderstorm activity will remain possible today, though mainly
limited to our southeastern most counties along the Florida big
bend, any remaining activity will then trend to the south and out
of the forecast area by this evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [616 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Line of strong to severe thunderstorms is mainly affecting the Big
Bend counties as of this writing and being aided by a mid level
shortwave. The actual surface front is further west in central
Alabama southwestward to southern Mississippi. Drier air is
beginning to work into southern Alabama and will progress through
the day. Will keep PoPs modest today across the Big Bend with an
overall decrease into the afternoon hours. Precipitation should be
south of the Big Bend early this evening. Highs today will be in the
80s and lows tonight will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

.SHORT TERM [Saturday Through Sunday]...

After a period of very active weather the past several days, we will
finally be getting a break. This weekend should see dry conditions
as surface high pressure settles over our area in the wake of Fri's
cold front. A shortwave swings down into the southeast CONUS on Sat,
but will have little moisture to work with. The wave then quickly
lifts to the northeast, so its main contribution should be a
reinforced shot of "cool" air into our area. High temperatures are
forecast to be in the mid/upper 80s Sat, then drop to upper 70s/low
80s Sun. Lows are expected to be around 60 (slightly warmer along
the immediate coast).

.LONG TERM [Sunday Night Through Friday]...

Dry conditions prevail until mid-week when a deep trough digs down
from western Canada and develops a surface low in The Great Lakes
region. This system is expected to track east-northeast and drag a
cold front across our area. Therefore, rain returns to the forecast
Wed and gradually tapers off Thurs as the frontal boundary should be
the focus for showers and thunderstorms. Once the front clears,
surface high pressure slides in, making for fair weather to close
out the long-term period. Temperatures should be closer to seasonal
values Mon and Tues, with highs in the upper 70s/low 80s and lows in
the low 50s. Temperatures rebound thereafter as highs are expected
to be in the 80s and lows in the upper 50s/low 60s.

.AVIATION...
[Through 12Z Saturday]

The western edge of the cloud shield associated with the
overnight MCS is through southeast Alabama and the western Florida
panhandle. Low clouds have developed across portions of the area
which are masked by mid/high level clouds. LIFR is being reported
at DHN and models show a few hours of LIFR at the rest of the
sites before mid morning. Afterwards, VFR conds will return with
decreasing clouds continuing from west to east. Winds will veer to
the northwest today.

.MARINE...

Winds and seas remain elevated through Sun with conditions
approaching cautionary levels as the cold front pushes through our
waters. After frontal passage and its parent low pulls farther away
to the north, the pressure gradient will relax, thus allowing
favorable boating conditions to prevail ahead of the next cold front
on Wed.

.FIRE WEATHER...

Rain will be coming to an end across the Big Bend later this
afternoon with drier air working in from the north across the tri-
state region. High dispersions are likely Saturday as transport
winds become elevated across most of the area. No hazardous fire
weather conditions are expected.

.HYDROLOGY...

Frequent rainfall as of late has increased the levels of our
rivers and creeks, causing many to go into flood or action stage.
The following rivers are currently in minor flood stage:

1) Kinchafoonee Creek Pinewood Rd - forecast to go into moderate
flood Sat morning then back to minor Tues evening

2)Apalachicola Woodruff - forecast to go below action stage Sat
morning

3) Apalachicola Blountstown - forecast to go into action stage Tues
morning

Several rivers are in action stage with Flint (Albany, Preston,
Bainbridge), and Shoal River forecast to go into minor flood stage
over the next few days. Most Ochlocknee and Suwannee Basins are
forecast to go into action stage. The mostly dry conditions
expected over the next several days should allow the rivers and
creeks to gradually decrease their levels.

Day 1-7 QPF amounts estimate generally 1-2 inches, with the
highest amounts in southeast Big Bend (mainly from today's cold
front). Another cold front brings rain to our area Wed and Thurs,
but QPF estimates are around 0.25 inches or less with next week's
system. Lastly, the Coastal Flood Advisory for Apalachee Bay is
due to expire at 9Z today.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by
calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   86  60  88  61  83 /  30   0  10  10  10
Panama City   82  65  82  63  80 /  20   0   0  10  10
Dothan        81  57  86  58  77 /  10   0   0   0  10
Albany        81  57  86  59  78 /  10   0  10   0  10
Valdosta      83  62  87  61  80 /  40   0  10  10  10
Cross City    80  65  86  64  82 /  70  10  20  10  10
Apalachicola  80  65  80  64  78 /  30  10  10  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

UPDATE...Humphreys
NEAR TERM...Scholl
SHORT TERM...IG3
LONG TERM...IG3
AVIATION...Scholl
MARINE...IG3
FIRE WEATHER...Scholl
HYDROLOGY...IG3