River Flood Warning 46, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
702 PM EDT Thu Apr 23 2020

.AVIATION...
[Through 00Z Saturday]

SHRA/TSRA continue to stretch across the forecast area with
conditions ranging from MVFR to LIFR around active showers and
storms. Strong damaging winds have been associated with these
storms today,along with quick directional changes. Another round
of showers and storms may be possible again tonight, though
backing off in strength compared to today.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [351 PM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Widespread showers and strong to severe storms are expected to
continue over much of the forecast area, with some new
intensification already notable on the western portions of the
CWA. This trend is expected to continue as storms continue to push
into relatively unstable air still in place over the Florida
Panhandle. Damaging winds, Tornadoes, Hail, and Flash Flooding
remain a concern this evening into tonight. A small craft advisory
remains in effect into early friday morning and a new Tornado
watch continues for many of our counties until 10 PM EDT.

.SHORT TERM [Friday through Saturday Night]...

The severe weather threat shifts to southeast Big Bend as a cold
front drapes itself and lingers over our area into the evening.
This boundary should serve as focus for showers and thunderstorms
that likely persist through the day. Some of the storms may may be
strong to severe as the airmass will be sufficiently moist and
unstable with strong deep-layer shear. This is reflected in SPC's
Day 2 Outlook (valid starting 12Z Fri) which puts southeast Big
Bend in a marginal-to-slight risk for severe weather. By late
Fri/early Sat, PoPs decrease as a another shortwave dives down
from The Plains and helps lift the cold front to the northeast.
High temperatures are expected to be in the 80s and lows in the
60s.

.LONG TERM [Sunday Through Thursday]...

We should see mostly dry conditions through early Tues as surface
high pressure dominates the southeast CONUS. Temperatures should
also feel more seasonable thanks to the cold front and shortwave
reinforcing a shot of cool/dry air from the northwest. Meanwhile,
a longwave trough digs down from western Canada to trigger
cyclogenesis in The Great Lakes region. This system will drag an
extensive cold front that appears to brush our northern area on
Wed. Chance-to-slight chance PoPs (slight chance of thunder) are
in the forecast to account for this, followed by Thurs being
mostly rain-free. The front should also keep temperatures from
rebounding too much. Highs are forecast to be in the low 80s and
lows in the 50s and 60s.

.MARINE...

A Small Craft Advisory is currently in effect until early Fri
morning as a line of severe storms wanders through our forecast
area. Some restrengthening is expected this evening and
overnight. Wave heights up to 7 ft are anticipated with some
higher values possible near the line. Winds and seas remain
elevated through Sat with a cold front present over the area.
Conditions finally begin improving thereafter ahead of another
system mid next week.

.FIRE WEATHER...

Showers and Thunderstorms are expected continue through early Friday
morning. Strong transport winds, both ahead and behind the system,
will lead to high dispersion values.

.HYDROLOGY...

The bulk of the rainfall over the next several days will be from
what falls today and tonight. Estimates so far seem to be on track
with radar showing areas of 2-4 inches and isolated higher
amounts. Given the precipitation from the previous severe event
(particularly in central GA and AL), there are concerns this
evening for potential flash flooding across portions of southwest
GA and southeast AL.

River flooding will also be a concern. Area rivers and creeks
continue to rise across the Apalachicola, Chattahoochee, and Flint
basins. Increased releases from WF George will keep the
Chattahoochee River near minor flood stage through at least
Wednesday evening before releases begin to decrease. Conditions on
the Middle Flint are not as high as previously expected, thus
releases out of Lake Blackshear may end up being lower later this
week than expected, thus it is possible that Albany and Newton stay
just below minor flood stage. However, all the water moving through
the Chattahoochee and Flint Basins will lead to minor flooding
throughout the Apalachicola River over the coming days. Large
uncertainty exists with this upcoming system so it is important to
note that a couple of inches of rain above Dawson could push the
Kinchafoonee Creek to the moderate flood level. Additionally heavy
rain north of Valdosta could lead to minor flooding on the
Withlacoochee River, given that the upper portions of the
Withlacoochee is still running above normal from last week's
rainfall.

Lastly, there is a low coastal flood threat in Apalachee Bay with
Thurs afternoon's high tide where peak surge looks to to line up
with high tide (water levels of 1.5-2 ft MHHW possible).

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is requested. Spotters should safely report
significant weather conditions and/or damage (while following all
local, state, and CDC guidelines) by calling the office or tweeting
us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   65  86  62  89  61 /  90  30  10  10  10
Panama City   68  82  66  82  64 /  80  20   0  10  10
Dothan        62  81  59  85  59 /  60   0   0  10  10
Albany        64  81  60  87  60 /  80  10   0  10  10
Valdosta      65  83  63  87  62 /  90  40   0  10  10
Cross City    68  80  67  85  65 /  90  70  20  30  10
Apalachicola  68  80  67  81  64 /  90  30  10  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT Friday for Coastal Dixie-
     Coastal Franklin-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-Coastal
     Wakulla.

     High Rip Current Risk until 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ Friday for
     Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ Friday for
     Apalachee Bay or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to
     Ochlockonee River FL out to 20 Nm-Coastal Waters From
     Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal
     waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Apalachicola FL out 20
     NM-Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton
     County Line FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to
     Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola
     to Mexico Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Mexico
     Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

NEAR TERM...Humphreys
SHORT TERM...IG3/Humphreys
LONG TERM...IG3/Humphreys
AVIATION...Humphreys
MARINE...Humphreys
FIRE WEATHER...Humphreys
HYDROLOGY...Godsey/IG3/Humphreys

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