Alert archive / New York / Tornado Watches in 2020

Tornado Watch 187

May 15, 20207 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at May 15, 2020, 3:32 PM EDT for 7 states. It was in force for 6 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 15, 2020, 3:32 PM EDT (19:32 UTC)
Expired: May 15, 2020, 10:00 PM EDT
In force: 6 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected: 1.5 in
Strongest gust expected: 60 kt

All 59 counties

Capitol Planning Region, CT, Northeastern Connecticut Planning Region, CT, Northwest Hills Planning Region, CT, Berkshire County, MA, Essex County, MA, Franklin County, MA, Hampden County, MA, Hampshire County, MA, Middlesex County, MA, Norfolk County, MA, Suffolk County, MA, Worcester County, MA, Belknap County, NH, Cheshire County, NH, Grafton County, NH, Hillsborough County, NH, Merrimack County, NH, Rockingham County, NH, Strafford County, NH, Sullivan County, NH, Albany County, NY, Broome County, NY, Cayuga County, NY, Chemung County, NY, Chenango County, NY, Columbia County, NY, Cortland County, NY, Delaware County, NY, Dutchess County, NY, Fulton County, NY, Greene County, NY, Hamilton County, NY, Herkimer County, NY, Madison County, NY, Montgomery County, NY, Oneida County, NY, Onondaga County, NY, Otsego County, NY, Rensselaer County, NY, Saratoga County, NY, Schenectady County, NY, Schoharie County, NY, Schuyler County, NY, Seneca County, NY, Steuben County, NY, Tioga County, NY, Tompkins County, NY, Ulster County, NY, Warren County, NY, Washington County, NY, Yates County, NY, Bradford County, PA, Susquehanna County, PA, Wayne County, PA, Providence County, RI, Bennington County, VT, Rutland County, VT, Windham County, VT, Windsor County, VT

The radar

The Albany radar (KENX), 80 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:35 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes: 40%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes: 20%
Ten or more severe wind reports: 80%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more: 20%
Ten or more severe hail reports: 40%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more: 20%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports: 95%

Warnings issued inside it

46 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 15, 3:53 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BGM	Cayuga, Onondaga, Seneca	40 min
May 15, 3:56 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BGM	Cayuga, Onondaga, Seneca	49 min
May 15, 4:07 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BGM	Madison, Oneida, Onondaga	38 min
May 15, 4:08 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BGM	Cayuga, Cortland, Onondaga, Seneca, Tompkins, Yates	32 min
May 15, 4:17 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BGM	Broome, Chemung, Chenango, Cortland, Delaware, Otsego and 4 more	36 min
May 15, 4:26 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ALY	Fulton, Hamilton, Herkimer	64 min
May 15, 4:46 PM EDT	Tornado Warning	ALY	Hamilton, Herkimer	23 min
May 15, 4:58 PM EDT	Tornado Warning	ALY	Fulton, Hamilton, Herkimer	21 min
May 15, 5:11 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ALY	Fulton, Hamilton, Saratoga	51 min
May 15, 5:17 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BGM	Broome, Chenango, Delaware, Otsego	43 min
May 15, 5:38 PM EDT	Tornado Warning	BGM	Delaware	37 min
May 15, 5:42 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ALY	Fulton, Montgomery, Rensselaer, Saratoga, Schenectady, Warren and 1 more	48 min
May 15, 5:48 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ALY	Albany, Montgomery, Schenectady, Schoharie	42 min
May 15, 5:52 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BGM	Delaware, Sullivan	33 min
May 15, 6:16 PM EDT	Tornado Warning	ALY	Washington	29 min
May 15, 6:20 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ALY	Albany, Greene, Schoharie, Ulster	25 min
May 15, 6:22 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ALY	Albany, Columbia, Greene, Rensselaer, Saratoga, Schenectady	38 min
May 15, 6:26 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ALY	Rensselaer, Washington	49 min
May 15, 6:42 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ALY	Columbia, Dutchess, Greene, Ulster	33 min
May 15, 6:46 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BTV	Addison, Caledonia, Orange, Washington, Windsor	59 min
May 15, 6:47 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ALY	Berkshire	43 min
May 15, 6:47 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GYX	Cheshire, Sullivan	58 min
May 15, 6:49 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BOX	Franklin, Hampshire	56 min
May 15, 6:59 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ALY	Columbia, Rensselaer	31 min
May 15, 7:09 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ALY	Dutchess, Ulster	51 min
May 15, 7:10 PM EDT	Tornado Warning	ALY	Windham	16 min
May 15, 7:13 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ALY	Northwest Hills Planning Region	47 min
May 15, 7:13 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ALY	Windham	32 min
May 15, 7:16 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GYX	Grafton, Merrimack, Sullivan	44 min
May 15, 7:17 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BOX	Hampden, Hampshire	58 min
May 15, 7:21 PM EDT	Tornado Warning	ALY	Ulster	24 min
May 15, 7:29 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ALY	Berkshire	16 min
May 15, 7:31 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BOX	Franklin, Hampshire, Middlesex, Worcester	59 min
May 15, 7:37 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GYX	Cheshire, Hillsborough, Merrimack, Sullivan	53 min
May 15, 7:43 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GYX	Belknap, Carroll, Grafton, Merrimack	47 min
May 15, 7:46 PM EDT	Tornado Warning	GYX	Cheshire, Hillsborough	18 min
May 15, 7:59 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ALY	Northwest Hills Planning Region	61 min
May 15, 8:06 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BOX	Franklin, Hampden, Hampshire, Worcester	54 min
May 15, 8:08 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BOX	Essex, Middlesex, Norfolk, Worcester	52 min
May 15, 8:15 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BOX	Capitol Planning Region, Northeastern Connecticut Planning Region	60 min
May 15, 8:16 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GYX	Belknap, Hillsborough, Merrimack, Rockingham, Strafford	44 min
May 15, 8:34 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BOX	Northeastern Connecticut Planning Region	41 min
May 15, 8:37 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ALY	Northwest Hills Planning Region	38 min
May 15, 8:48 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BOX	Essex, Middlesex, Suffolk	35 min
May 15, 8:59 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BOX	Bristol, Essex, Middlesex, Norfolk, Plymouth, Suffolk and 1 more	61 min
May 15, 9:14 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BOX	Capitol Planning Region	24 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Albany, NY (KALY), launched 12:00Z, 7.5 hours before the alert went out and 88 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 815 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 38 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 136 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 149 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 15, 2:59 PM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Berkshire, Franklin, Hampshire	91 min
May 15, 4:58 PM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Berkshire, Franklin, Hampden, Hampshire, Middlesex, Worcester	92 min
May 15, 6:59 PM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Berkshire, Franklin, Hampshire	2 hr
May 15, 1:52 PM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Allegany, Cattaraugus, Chautauqua, Erie, Livingston, Ontario and 3 more	83 min
May 15, 7:47 PM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Broome, Chemung, Tioga	58 min

Nearby

Tornado Watches in New York, 2020 Tornado Watches in Massachusetts, 2020 Tornado Watches in New Hampshire, 2020 Every tornado watch in 2020

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.