Alert archive / Iowa / Mesoscale Discussions in 2020

Mesoscale Discussion 813

June 4, 202035 counties in Iowa

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 4, 2020, 12:59 PM CDT for 35 counties in Iowa. It was in force for 61 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jun 4, 2020, 12:59 PM CDT (17:59 UTC)
Expired
Jun 4, 2020, 2:00 PM CDT
In force
61 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Severe potential...watch unlikely
Chance of a watch
20%
All 35 counties

Audubon County, IA, Benton County, IA, Black Hawk County, IA, Boone County, IA, Buchanan County, IA, Buena Vista County, IA, Calhoun County, IA, Carroll County, IA, Cedar County, IA, Crawford County, IA, Dallas County, IA, Delaware County, IA, Franklin County, IA, Greene County, IA, Grundy County, IA, Guthrie County, IA, Hamilton County, IA, Hardin County, IA, Humboldt County, IA, Iowa County, IA, Jasper County, IA, Johnson County, IA, Jones County, IA, Linn County, IA, Marshall County, IA, Muscatine County, IA, Pocahontas County, IA, Polk County, IA, Poweshiek County, IA, Sac County, IA, Scott County, IA, Story County, IA, Tama County, IA, Webster County, IA, Wright County, IA

The radar

The Des Moines radar (KDMX), 59 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:02 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Davenport, (KDVN), launched 12:00Z, 6.0 hours before the alert went out and 228 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Davenport, at 12:00Z on 2020-06-04Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 451 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Davenport, at 12:00Z on 2020-06-04The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -41 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
451 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-72 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1180 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
20 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-41 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
30 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

827 
ACUS11 KWNS 041800
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041759 
IAZ000-041900-

Mesoscale Discussion 0813
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 PM CDT Thu Jun 04 2020

Areas affected...Central Iowa

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 041759Z - 041900Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is probable
through the mid afternoon, but most storms should remain below
severe limits. A watch is not likely.

DISCUSSION...Agitated cumulus and a few weak thunderstorms have
developed along and north of a stationary boundary draped east-west
across Iowa. As daytime heating and decreasing inhibition continue,
additional thunderstorms are probable. Given 500-1000 J/kg, with
pockets up to 1500 J/kg, of MLCAPE, a strong storm or two is
possible and may occasionally be capable of marginally severe hail.
However, deep layer shear is currently weak and is not expected to
increase above 25 knots until the late afternoon/evening hours.
Given the low probability for severe hail and wind in this area, a
watch is not likely for this round of developing convection.

..Moore/Grams.. 06/04/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...DMX...FSD...OAX...

LAT...LON   42199548 42779522 42809434 42689227 42499090 42119060
            41699050 41369118 41349258 41499428 41789538 42199548

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jun 3, 8:54 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCFremont2 hr
Jun 3, 10:44 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCFremont2 hr
Jun 4, 5:14 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllamakee, Benton, Black Hawk, Boone, Bremer, Buchanan and 61 more91 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Iowa, 2020Every mesoscale discussion in 2020

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.