Alert archive / Georgia / Mesoscale Discussions in 2020

Mesoscale Discussion 39

January 11, 202015 counties in Alabama; 23 counties in Georgia; 12 counties in Tennessee

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jan 11, 2020, 12:20 PM CST for 15 counties in Alabama; 23 counties in Georgia; 12 counties in Tennessee. It was in force for 85 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jan 11, 2020, 12:20 PM CST (18:20 UTC)
Expired
Jan 11, 2020, 1:45 PM CST
In force
85 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch
95%
All 50 counties

Blount County, AL, Calhoun County, AL, Chambers County, AL, Cherokee County, AL, Clay County, AL, Cleburne County, AL, Coosa County, AL, DeKalb County, AL, Etowah County, AL, Jackson County, AL, Marshall County, AL, Randolph County, AL, St. Clair County, AL, Talladega County, AL, Tallapoosa County, AL, Bartow County, GA, Carroll County, GA, Catoosa County, GA, Chattooga County, GA, Cherokee County, GA, Cobb County, GA, Coweta County, GA, Dade County, GA, Douglas County, GA, Fannin County, GA, Floyd County, GA, Fulton County, GA, Gilmer County, GA, Gordon County, GA, Haralson County, GA, Heard County, GA, Murray County, GA, Paulding County, GA, Pickens County, GA, Polk County, GA, Troup County, GA, Walker County, GA, Whitfield County, GA, Bledsoe County, TN, Bradley County, TN, Franklin County, TN, Grundy County, TN, Hamilton County, TN, Marion County, TN, McMinn County, TN, Meigs County, TN, Polk County, TN, Rhea County, TN, Sequatchie County, TN, Van Buren County, TN

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Peachtre/Fal Fld, GA (KFFC), launched 12:00Z, 6.3 hours before the alert went out and 131 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Peachtre/Fal Fld, GA at 12:00Z on 2020-01-11Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 13 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Peachtre/Fal Fld, GA at 12:00Z on 2020-01-11The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 417 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
13 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-26 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
557 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
43 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
417 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
450 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

175 
ACUS11 KWNS 111820
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111820 
NCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-111945-

Mesoscale Discussion 0039
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1220 PM CST Sat Jan 11 2020

Areas affected...Northeast AL...Northwest GA...Southeast TN

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 111820Z - 111945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Threat for damaging wind and a few tornadoes will increase
this afternoon. Watch issuance is likely by 19Z.

DISCUSSION...An extensive QLCS has recently intensified across
portions of western AL, with at least one confirmed tornado noted
earlier in Pickens County. Gradually increasing downstream
instability (noted in objective mesoanalysis and recent SWIRLL
soundings) will favor maintenance of this system as it moves into
northeast AL and adjacent portions of northwest GA and southern TN.
Very strong wind profiles will also spread eastward with time, with
1 km AGL flow of 60-70 kt and effective SRH expected to increase
into the 450-650 m2/s2 range. This powerful wind field will continue
to support the potential for relatively widespread damaging wind,
and also embedded circulations capable of producing at least brief
tornadoes. New watch issuance is expected by 19Z to cover these
threats from northeast AL into northwest GA and southern TN.

..Dean/Hart.. 01/11/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...

LAT...LON   35318631 35738554 35708467 35278412 34748407 33928437
            32868481 32638544 32668580 32718623 33148651 34108662
            34558649 35318631

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jan 11, 6:12 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCColbert, Lauderdale, Limestone, Madison93 min
Jan 11, 6:57 AM CSTTornado WatchSPCColbert, Cullman, Fayette, Franklin, Lamar, Lauderdale and 7 more7 hr
Jan 11, 7:39 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCChoctaw, Clarke, Greene, Hale, Marengo, Mobile and 3 more96 min
Jan 11, 7:57 AM CSTTornado WatchSPCAutauga, Baldwin, Bibb, Blount, Butler, Chilton and 22 more9 hr
Jan 11, 9:28 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBlount, Cullman, DeKalb, Fayette, Jackson, Lawrence and 7 more92 min
Jan 11, 9:54 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCChoctaw, Greene, Marengo, Pickens, Sumter, Washington96 min
Jan 11, 11:50 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBibb, Blount, Chilton, Choctaw, Clarke, Cullman and 15 more85 min
Jan 11, 12:42 PM CSTTornado WatchSPCBarbour, Bullock, Calhoun, Chambers, Cherokee, Clay and 15 more7 hr
Jan 11, 1:15 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBlount, Calhoun, Cherokee, Chilton, DeKalb, Etowah and 6 more90 min
Jan 11, 2:26 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBarbour, Bullock, Butler, Coffee, Covington, Crenshaw and 10 more94 min
Jan 11, 2:44 PM CSTTornado WatchSPCCoffee, Dale, Geneva, Henry, Houston5 hr
Jan 11, 3:16 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBullock, Chambers, Clay, Cleburne, Lee, Macon and 3 more89 min
Jan 11, 5:21 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCHouston114 min
Jan 11, 3:48 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBanks, Elbert, Franklin, Habersham, Hart, Madison and 2 more117 min
Jan 11, 4:38 PM CSTTornado WatchSPCBaldwin, Bleckley, Burke, Clarke, Columbia, Dodge and 34 more6 hr
Jan 11, 5:36 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBaldwin, Banks, Barrow, Bibb, Bleckley, Butts and 63 more84 min
Jan 10, 11:58 PM CSTTornado WatchSPCCrockett, Dyer, Fayette, Gibson, Haywood, Lake and 4 more7 hr
Jan 11, 3:52 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCrockett, Dyer, Fayette, Hardeman, Haywood, Lauderdale and 3 more83 min
Jan 11, 4:17 AM CSTTornado WatchSPCBenton, Carroll, Chester, Decatur, Hardeman, Hardin and 5 more6 hr
Jan 11, 5:06 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCFayette, Hardeman, McNairy54 min
Jan 11, 8:20 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBledsoe, Cannon, Clay, Cumberland, DeKalb, Fentress and 11 more55 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Georgia, 2020Mesoscale Discussions in Alabama, 2020Mesoscale Discussions in Tennessee, 2020Every mesoscale discussion in 2020

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.