Alert archive / Kansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2020
Mesoscale Discussion 1012
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 26, 2020, 6:30 PM CDT for 4 states. It was in force for 90 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jun 26, 2020, 6:30 PM CDT (23:30 UTC)
- Expired
- Jun 26, 2020, 8:00 PM CDT
- In force
- 90 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe potential...watch possible
- Chance of a watch
- 60%
All 32 counties
Adams County, IA, Fremont County, IA, Mills County, IA, Montgomery County, IA, Page County, IA, Taylor County, IA, Union County, IA, Brown County, KS, Clay County, KS, Cloud County, KS, Doniphan County, KS, Geary County, KS, Jackson County, KS, Marshall County, KS, Nemaha County, KS, Ottawa County, KS, Pottawatomie County, KS, Republic County, KS, Riley County, KS, Wabaunsee County, KS, Washington County, KS, Atchison County, MO, Holt County, MO, Nodaway County, MO, Cass County, NE, Gage County, NE, Jefferson County, NE, Johnson County, NE, Nemaha County, NE, Otoe County, NE, Pawnee County, NE, Richardson County, NE
The radar
The Topeka radar (KTWX), 112 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:32 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Topeka, KS (KTOP), launched 12:00Z, 11.5 hours before the alert went out and 130 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 113 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -475 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1770 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 29 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 153 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 119 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
682
ACUS11 KWNS 262330
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262330
IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-270100-
Mesoscale Discussion 1012
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0630 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2020
Areas affected...North-Central/Northeast Kansas...Southeast
Nebraska...Southwest Iowa...Northwest Missouri
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 262330Z - 270100Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm watch may be warranted if
thunderstorms develop over the next 1-2 hours. Hail/wind are the
main threats.
DISCUSSION...Weak short-wave ridging, in the wake of northern IL
MCS, is expected to shift east across the mid-MO Valley over the
next few hours. Latest water-vapor imagery suggests this is
underway, and brief subsidence will wane. This should become more
supportive for thunderstorm development over the next few hours.
Latest vis satellite imagery exhibits a substantial cu field from
north-central KS, arcing into southwest IA. Within this field,
several deeper towers are beginning to generate anvils along with a
few showers. Sustained low-level warm advection should aid
convective development over the next few hours, especially as LLJ
strengthens after sunset. CAMs support a considerable increase along
this corridor, just south of the wind shift, and this lends
confidence that a severe thunderstorm watch may be needed by 01z.
..Darrow/Edwards.. 06/26/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...
LAT...LON 39739781 40379727 41139579 41049424 40199459 38709652
38999762 39739781SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 26, 12:38 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Allamakee, Benton, Black Hawk, Bremer, Buchanan, Butler and 17 more | 2 hr |
| Jun 26, 1:38 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Allamakee, Buchanan, Cedar, Clayton, Clinton, Delaware and 16 more | 8 hr |
| Jun 26, 3:39 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Cedar, Clayton, Clinton, Delaware, Dubuque, Jackson and 2 more | 2 hr |
| Jun 26, 5:40 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Appanoose, Davis, Des Moines, Henry, Jefferson, Keokuk and 6 more | 65 min |
| Jun 25, 7:45 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Norton | 60 min |
| Jun 26, 1:07 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Cheyenne, Kimball | 113 min |
| Jun 26, 4:51 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Banner, Cheyenne, Deuel, Kimball | 84 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2020Mesoscale Discussions in Nebraska, 2020Mesoscale Discussions in Iowa, 2020Every mesoscale discussion in 2020
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.