Alert archive / Colorado / Mesoscale Discussions in 2020
Mesoscale Discussion 1007
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 26, 2020, 12:07 PM MDT for 28 counties in Colorado; Cheyenne County, Kimball County, Nebraska; Laramie County, Wyoming. It was in force for 113 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jun 26, 2020, 12:07 PM MDT (18:07 UTC)
- Expired
- Jun 26, 2020, 2:00 PM MDT
- In force
- 113 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe potential...watch likely
- Chance of a watch
- 80%
All 31 counties
Adams County, CO, Arapahoe County, CO, Baca County, CO, Bent County, CO, Boulder County, CO, Broomfield County, CO, Cheyenne County, CO, Crowley County, CO, Denver County, CO, Douglas County, CO, El Paso County, CO, Elbert County, CO, Gilpin County, CO, Jefferson County, CO, Kiowa County, CO, Kit Carson County, CO, Larimer County, CO, Lincoln County, CO, Logan County, CO, Morgan County, CO, Otero County, CO, Phillips County, CO, Prowers County, CO, Pueblo County, CO, Sedgwick County, CO, Washington County, CO, Weld County, CO, Yuma County, CO, Cheyenne County, NE, Kimball County, NE, Laramie County, WY
The radar
The Denver radar (KFTG), 67 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:10 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Denver, CO (KDNR), launched 12:00Z, 6.1 hours before the alert went out and 71 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 108 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -365 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1341 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 38 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 9 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 101 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
868
ACUS11 KWNS 261807
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261807
KSZ000-COZ000-NEZ000-WYZ000-262000-
Mesoscale Discussion 1007
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0107 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2020
Areas affected...much of eastern Colorado...southeast
Wyoming...southwest Nebraska...far western Kansas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 261807Z - 262000Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Storms are expected to initiate along the Front Range
between 19 and 20Z, with primarily a damaging wind and hail threat
spreading east through evening.
DISCUSSION...Easterly surface winds behind the NE/KS boundary have
maintained 50s F dewpoints along and east of the Front Range, with
strong heating resulting in 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Light but deep
easterly low-level winds should prove favorable for
forward-propagating storm clusters producing damaging wind gusts
after about 20Z over much of eastern CO. Modest westerlies aloft
atop the surface easterlies will also elongate hodographs enough to
support a few long-lived cores producing large hail. A brief
supercell/weak tornado cannot be ruled out early in the event, prior
to large-scale outflow production.
..Jewell/Thompson.. 06/26/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...
LAT...LON 38870518 39580553 40140569 40510582 40570589 41370576
41580544 41570458 41350299 41150256 40740218 40260205
39720206 38290196 37580198 37240213 37050248 37090268
37500441 37870485 38870518SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 26, 1:12 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Adams, Arapahoe, Baca, Bent, Boulder, Broomfield and 24 more | 10 hr |
| Jun 26, 3:51 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Adams, Arapahoe, Boulder, Broomfield, Crowley, Denver and 17 more | 84 min |
| Jun 25, 6:45 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Blaine, Brown, Buffalo, Cherry, Custer, Dawson and 18 more | 60 min |
| Jun 26, 5:30 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Cass, Gage, Jefferson, Johnson, Nemaha, Otoe and 2 more | 90 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Colorado, 2020Mesoscale Discussions in Nebraska, 2020Mesoscale Discussions in Wyoming, 2020Every mesoscale discussion in 2020
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.