Severe Thunderstorm Warning 103, NWS San Angelo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
548 PM CDT Thu May 21 2020

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Waiting to see if thunderstorms form along the dryline from
Sterling City northwest to Snyder and continuing northwest. Any
isolated thunderstorm that does form could become severe and
produce large hail and damaging winds. It's possible these storms
could impact KABI and KSJT terminals later this evening. Will
include VCTS for KABI and KSJT. Will also include a TEMPO group
for KSJT between 00Z and 03Z.

Otherwise, look for MVFR CIGs early tomorrow morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 258 PM CDT Thu May 21 2020/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Friday)

Skies have cleared out across West Central Texas this afternoon with
steady south winds of 10 to 15 MPH.  Temperatures had reached to
around 90 degrees, with dewpoints in the mid 50s to low 60s.

An upper-level shortwave will move through the Panhandle this
evening, which may help some scattered storms to develop along the
dryline.  CAPE values and lapse rates are supportive of large hail,
with some mid-level dry air supportive of damaging wind.  However,
upper-level support is far less than yesterday, with sub-par
convergence, so storms will be more scattered in nature.  Still, any
storm that develops could produce localized damaging winds with
large hail, and even some flooding with slow-movers.

Storms will continue through the first part of the night, then
diminish with the loss of daytime heating.  Any convective debris
may linger with some low-level stratus developing around sunrise.
Otherwise, lows should be in the upper 60s.

Tomorrow, another warm day is expected, with temperatures again
expected to reach the low 90s.  Plenty of instability should be in
place again, but this time, a frontal boundary is expected to dip
down towards the Big Country, while a weak upper-level impulse moves
across the Panhandle.  This may result in a line of thunderstorms
developing near the Red River by late afternoon and drifting
southward in the evening.  Some tail-end storms may affect the Big
Country late tomorrow afternoon.

LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)

An unsettled weather pattern will develop across the region
over the Memorial day weekend into the middle of next week,
with rain chances each day. The medium range models show an
upper level trough developing to our west across the Rockies
this weekend. The GFS/ECMWF then agree on the southern portion
of the trough closing off into a cutoff low across the Texas
Panhandle/West Texas region early next week, with little
movement through late week. At the surface, a dryline will
be remain just to our west this weekend, with a possible
cold front moving across the area Monday night into Tuesday.

A very moist airmass will reside across West Central Texas
through the middle of next week and given the above scenario,
widespread beneficial rainfall is looking more favorable
through the extended forecast period. Could see a few severe
storms this weekend but the severe threat is uncertain after
the weekend, with heavy rainfall potentially more of a concern.
Temperatures will also be considerably cooler, especially early
next week, when forecast highs will be in the upper 70s and
lower 80s by Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 69  93  67  88 /  20  30  20  20
San Angelo 	 69  93  71  91 /  20  20  20  30
Junction 	 69  91  72  88 /  20  20  20  30
Brownwood 	 66  92  68  88 /  20  20  20  30
Sweetwater 	 67  92  67  89 /  20  20  20  20
Ozona      	 67  90  70  88 /  20  20  20  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

26/99/99

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
203 PM CDT Thu May 21 2020

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-221915-
Fisher-Nolan-Sterling-Coke-Runnels-Irion-Tom Green-Concho-
Crockett-Schleicher-Sutton-Haskell-Throckmorton-Jones-Shackelford-
Taylor-Callahan-Coleman-Brown-McCulloch-San Saba-Menard-Kimble-
Mason-
203 PM CDT Thu May 21 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of west central
Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop and move into
West Central Texas by this evening and into tonight. Some storms
may be severe. The main weather hazards will be damaging winds,
large hail, and occasional lightning. In addition, some of the
storms will be capable of producing heavy rainfall, which may lead
to localized flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Additional thunderstorms will be possible at times, across various
portions of West Central Texas Friday through Memorial Day, and
into the middle of next week. Some strong to severe storms will be
possible with strong winds, hail and lightning the main threats.
The risk of severe storms will need to be monitored. Heavy
rainfall may also occur, which could lead to localized flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation will likely be needed. Please relay any
information about observed weather to the NWS while following all
local, state and CDC guidelines.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1051 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1037 PM     HAIL             PLACID                  31.33N 99.18W
05/21/2020  E0.70 INCH       MCCULLOCH          TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

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