Severe Thunderstorm Warning 101, NWS San Angelo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
548 PM CDT Thu May 21 2020

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Waiting to see if thunderstorms form along the dryline from
Sterling City northwest to Snyder and continuing northwest. Any
isolated thunderstorm that does form could become severe and
produce large hail and damaging winds. It's possible these storms
could impact KABI and KSJT terminals later this evening. Will
include VCTS for KABI and KSJT. Will also include a TEMPO group
for KSJT between 00Z and 03Z.

Otherwise, look for MVFR CIGs early tomorrow morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 258 PM CDT Thu May 21 2020/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Friday)

Skies have cleared out across West Central Texas this afternoon with
steady south winds of 10 to 15 MPH.  Temperatures had reached to
around 90 degrees, with dewpoints in the mid 50s to low 60s.

An upper-level shortwave will move through the Panhandle this
evening, which may help some scattered storms to develop along the
dryline.  CAPE values and lapse rates are supportive of large hail,
with some mid-level dry air supportive of damaging wind.  However,
upper-level support is far less than yesterday, with sub-par
convergence, so storms will be more scattered in nature.  Still, any
storm that develops could produce localized damaging winds with
large hail, and even some flooding with slow-movers.

Storms will continue through the first part of the night, then
diminish with the loss of daytime heating.  Any convective debris
may linger with some low-level stratus developing around sunrise.
Otherwise, lows should be in the upper 60s.

Tomorrow, another warm day is expected, with temperatures again
expected to reach the low 90s.  Plenty of instability should be in
place again, but this time, a frontal boundary is expected to dip
down towards the Big Country, while a weak upper-level impulse moves
across the Panhandle.  This may result in a line of thunderstorms
developing near the Red River by late afternoon and drifting
southward in the evening.  Some tail-end storms may affect the Big
Country late tomorrow afternoon.

LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)

An unsettled weather pattern will develop across the region
over the Memorial day weekend into the middle of next week,
with rain chances each day. The medium range models show an
upper level trough developing to our west across the Rockies
this weekend. The GFS/ECMWF then agree on the southern portion
of the trough closing off into a cutoff low across the Texas
Panhandle/West Texas region early next week, with little
movement through late week. At the surface, a dryline will
be remain just to our west this weekend, with a possible
cold front moving across the area Monday night into Tuesday.

A very moist airmass will reside across West Central Texas
through the middle of next week and given the above scenario,
widespread beneficial rainfall is looking more favorable
through the extended forecast period. Could see a few severe
storms this weekend but the severe threat is uncertain after
the weekend, with heavy rainfall potentially more of a concern.
Temperatures will also be considerably cooler, especially early
next week, when forecast highs will be in the upper 70s and
lower 80s by Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 69  93  67  88 /  20  30  20  20
San Angelo 	 69  93  71  91 /  20  20  20  30
Junction 	 69  91  72  88 /  20  20  20  30
Brownwood 	 66  92  68  88 /  20  20  20  30
Sweetwater 	 67  92  67  89 /  20  20  20  20
Ozona      	 67  90  70  88 /  20  20  20  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

26/99/99

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
203 PM CDT Thu May 21 2020

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-221915-
Fisher-Nolan-Sterling-Coke-Runnels-Irion-Tom Green-Concho-
Crockett-Schleicher-Sutton-Haskell-Throckmorton-Jones-Shackelford-
Taylor-Callahan-Coleman-Brown-McCulloch-San Saba-Menard-Kimble-
Mason-
203 PM CDT Thu May 21 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of west central
Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop and move into
West Central Texas by this evening and into tonight. Some storms
may be severe. The main weather hazards will be damaging winds,
large hail, and occasional lightning. In addition, some of the
storms will be capable of producing heavy rainfall, which may lead
to localized flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Additional thunderstorms will be possible at times, across various
portions of West Central Texas Friday through Memorial Day, and
into the middle of next week. Some strong to severe storms will be
possible with strong winds, hail and lightning the main threats.
The risk of severe storms will need to be monitored. Heavy
rainfall may also occur, which could lead to localized flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation will likely be needed. Please relay any
information about observed weather to the NWS while following all
local, state and CDC guidelines.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
855 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0855 PM     HAIL             3 SW HARRIET            31.52N 100.36W
05/21/2020  E3.00 INCH       TOM GREEN          TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
857 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0851 PM     HAIL             3 ESE GRAPE CREEK       31.57N 100.49W
05/21/2020  E3.00 INCH       TOM GREEN          TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
907 PM CDT Thu May 21 2020

TXZ049-054-113-127-220245-
Fisher TX-Nolan TX-Jones TX-Taylor TX-
907 PM CDT Thu May 21 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN JONES...NORTHEASTERN
NOLAN...SOUTHEASTERN FISHER AND NORTHWESTERN TAYLOR COUNTIES UNTIL
945 PM CDT...

At 907 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles northwest of Trent, or 14 miles northeast of Sweetwater, moving
east at 20 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Trent around 925 PM CDT.
  Noodle around 935 PM CDT.
  Merkel around 945 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Stith and Truby.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
west central Texas.

LAT...LON 3250 10028 3268 10025 3271 9990 3241 9992
TIME...MOT...LOC 0207Z 274DEG 16KT 3259 10020

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
910 PM CDT Thu May 21 2020

TXZ127-128-139-220300-
Callahan TX-Coleman TX-Taylor TX-
910 PM CDT Thu May 21 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CALLAHAN...NORTH CENTRAL COLEMAN
AND SOUTHEASTERN TAYLOR COUNTIES UNTIL 1000 PM CDT...

At 909 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Oplin, or 17 miles south of Clyde, moving northeast at 35 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Rowden around 930 PM CDT.
  Putnam and Atwell around 950 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Us-
283 Near The Coleman-
Callahan County Line, Admiral, Lake Coleman and I-
20 Near The Callahan-Eastland County Line.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
west central Texas.

LAT...LON 3199 9957 3216 9974 3252 9934 3251 9922
      3241 9911 3218 9912
TIME...MOT...LOC 0209Z 233DEG 31KT 3215 9954

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
939 PM CDT Thu May 21 2020

TXZ114-128-220330-
Shackelford TX-Callahan TX-
939 PM CDT Thu May 21 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN CALLAHAN AND
SOUTHEASTERN SHACKELFORD COUNTIES UNTIL 1030 PM CDT...

At 939 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Clyde, moving northeast at 45 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Moran around 1000 PM CDT.
  Ibex around 1005 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Us-
180 Near The Shackelford-Stephens County Line, Mccarty Lake and Us-
283 Near The Callahan-Shackelford County Line.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
west central Texas.

LAT...LON 3287 9911 3285 9909 3252 9909 3251 9911
      3246 9911 3232 9949 3248 9964 3249 9963
TIME...MOT...LOC 0239Z 233DEG 49KT 3245 9947

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1016 PM CDT Thu May 21 2020

TXZ139-140-154-155-220400-
Coleman TX-McCulloch TX-Brown TX-San Saba TX-
1016 PM CDT Thu May 21 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN BROWN...SOUTHEASTERN
COLEMAN...NORTHERN MCCULLOCH AND NORTHWESTERN SAN SABA COUNTIES UNTIL
1100 PM CDT...

At 1016 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Waldrip, or 18 miles north of Brady, moving northeast at 10 mph.

Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Rockwood around 1045 PM CDT.
  Winchell around 1100 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Milburn, Fife, Locker,
Mozelle, Whon, Us-283 Near The Mcculloch-
Coleman County Line, Hall, Indian Creek and Shields.

LAT...LON 3135 9959 3161 9949 3152 9894 3149 9898
      3147 9900 3145 9897 3144 9896 3146 9894
      3144 9893 3143 9889 3120 9887
TIME...MOT...LOC 0316Z 235DEG 8KT 3140 9939

Daniels