Flash Flood Warning 6, NWS Shreveport, LA

507 
WGUS74 KSHV 102244
FFSSHV

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
444 PM CST Mon Feb 10 2020

LAC013-015-027-119-102253-
/O.EXP.KSHV.FF.W.0006.000000T0000Z-200210T2245Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Webster LA-Claiborne LA-Bienville LA-Bossier LA-
444 PM CST Mon Feb 10 2020

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR SOUTHERN WEBSTER...SOUTHWESTERN
CLAIBORNE...NORTHERN BIENVILLE AND SOUTHEASTERN BOSSIER PARISHES WILL
EXPIRE AT 445 PM CST...

The heavy rain has ended across the warned area. Flooding is no 
longer expected to pose a threat. Please continue to watch for any 
residual high water or road closures.

LAT...LON 3260 9288 3246 9288 3224 9341 3224 9346
      3241 9344 3264 9345 3278 9293 3260 9287

$$

15

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1200 PM CST Mon Feb 10 2020

.AVIATION...
IFR/low IFR cigs will persist through the TAF period across much
of NE TX/NW LA/SW AR, behind a cold front which will continue to
slowly shift SE across Deep E TX/N LA through the afternoon and
overnight hours. A band of convection that has developed along and
just ahead of the front over portions of E TX/N LA/extreme Srn AR,
is expected to persist through the afternoon and evening,
affecting the TYR/GGG/SHV/MLU/ELD terminals. Some of the stronger
storms will result in strong turbulence, LIFR cigs, and reduced
vsbys, before diminishing from W to E overnight. -SHRA are
expected to increase across extreme NE TX/SW AR later this
afternoon, although thunder is not anticipated at TXK attm.
Meanwhile, MVFR cigs over the Srn sections of Deep E TX and Ncntrl
LA are expected to deteriorate to IFR with the approach of the
front, with LIFR/IFR cigs and reduced vsbys in BR/-DZ expected to
persist through the remainder of the 18Z TAF period. Areas of
-RA/SHRA are expected to increase from W to E across the region
from 12-18Z Tuesday, maintaining IFR cigs and reduced vsbys. NNW
winds 5-9kts behind the front, with SW winds 5-10kts ahead of the
bndry, will become NNE 5-10kts later tonight as the front exits
the region late.

15

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1047 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2020/

SHORT TERM.../This Afternoon/

The morning sfc analysis indicates a cold front slowly drifting SE
across portions of E TX/SW AR, extending from just S of a PSN/JSO,
to S of a RFI, to just W of SHV, to near a CDh to PBF line as of
16Z. As expected, a broken line of convection, some of which
contain locally heavy rainfall, has narrowed in along the frontal
sfc across portions of Lower E TX/N LA/extreme SCntrl AR, with
sfc obs indicating that a quick inch of rain has fallen over the
last 1-2 hours. This will be the area to watch for potential
flooding as frontal convergence as well as convergence along the
H925-850 trough between the I-20 corridor and the AR/LA line will
continue to focus convection, especially as overrunning is progged
to increase this afternoon near and atop the front as it slips
slowly S into Deep E TX/Ncntrl LA.

Have raised pops back to high end categorical for this corridor,
and had to re-add mention of heavy rain in the forecast to account
for the current/expected trends. Did make some minor tweaks to max
temps today based on the current frontal position, lowering max
temps a bit over NE TX behind the front, while also bumping temps
up a tad over portions of Deep E TX/Srn sections of Ncntrl LA to
account for the break in convection and continued warm advection.

The severe threat across the warm sector still looks marginal
based on the limited instability, but can't rule out an isolated
severe storm over the Srn sections of Ncntrl LA near the front
with the increased frontal forcing in the warmer/more moist air
mass later this afternoon.

Zone update already out...grids will be available shortly.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  66  48  52  45 / 100  90  90  90
MLU  70  49  54  46 / 100  90  70  80
DEQ  60  43  48  40 /  50  50  80  90
TXK  61  45  48  42 /  80  60  90  90
ELD  66  45  49  43 / 100  90  90  90
TYR  55  46  52  44 /  90  70  90  90
GGG  60  48  52  44 /  90  80  90  90
LFK  74  52  60  51 /  90  90  80  90

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Flash Flood Watch through Wednesday afternoon for ARZ072-073.

LA...Flash Flood Watch through Wednesday afternoon for LAZ001>006-
     010>014-017>022.

OK...None.
TX...Flash Flood Watch through Wednesday afternoon for TXZ125-126-
     136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

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Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
623 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2020

ARZ050-051-059>061-070-071-OKZ077-TXZ096-097-108>112-124-111230-
Sevier-Howard-Little River-Hempstead-Nevada-Miller-Lafayette-
McCurtain-Red River-Bowie-Franklin-Titus-Camp-Morris-Cass-Wood-
623 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest
Arkansas, southeast Oklahoma and northeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

Showers and thunderstorms will continue today and tonight as a
cold front drops southeastward of the area. Localized heavy
rainfall will be possible with storms and may lead to a flash
flooding threat early today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday...

The front will stall out across central Louisiana late today and
then several upper level disturbances will ride along the boundary
and bring rounds of showers and isolated thunderstorms through
Wednesday. Storm total rainfall amounts will be 2-4 inches across
the area today through Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of emergency management personnel...amateur radio
operators...and storm spotters may be needed early today but is
not likely.

ARZ072-073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-TXZ125-126-136>138-149>153-
165>167-111230-
Columbia-Union-Caddo-Bossier-Webster-Claiborne-Lincoln-De Soto-
Red River-Bienville-Jackson-Ouachita-Sabine-Natchitoches-Winn-
Grant-Caldwell-La Salle-Upshur-Marion-Smith-Gregg-Harrison-
Cherokee-Rusk-Panola-Nacogdoches-Shelby-Angelina-San Augustine-
623 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
Arkansas, southwest Arkansas, north central Louisiana, northwest
Louisiana, east Texas and northeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

Showers and thunderstorms will continue today and tonight as a
cold front drops southeastward across the area. A few of the
storms in Deep East Texas, central Louisiana, and the ArkLaMiss
may become strong to severe. The primary threats with the storms
will be flash flooding, large hail, and damaging winds. An
isolated tornado also cannot be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday...

The front will stall out across central Louisiana late today and
then several upper level disturbances will ride along the boundary
and bring rounds of showers and thunderstorms with localized heavy
rain. This will allow for the flash flooding threat to continue
through Wednesday night. Storm total rainfall amounts will be 3-6
inches across the area with localized higher amounts possible.

There is the potential for storms to become strong to severe in
central Louisiana and the ArkLaMiss on Wednesday afternoon. Large
hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes will be possible with storms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of emergency management personnel...amateur radio
operators...and storm spotters will likely be needed this
afternoon through tonight and again on Wednesday.

04

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1258 PM CST Mon Feb 10 2020

ARZ072-LAZ003-101945-
Columbia AR-Webster LA-
1258 PM CST Mon Feb 10 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN COLUMBIA COUNTY IN
SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS AND NORTHWESTERN WEBSTER PARISHES UNTIL 145 PM
CST...

At 1257 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Sarepta, or near Springhill, moving northeast at 30 mph.

Half inch hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Magnolia, Springhill, Cullen, Cotton Valley, Sarepta, Emerson,
Shongaloo, Macedonia, Welcome, Calhoun, Walkerville, Noxobe and
Horsehead.

LAT...LON 3302 9316 3302 9324 3296 9324 3281 9341
      3285 9347 3285 9346 3287 9345 3287 9347
      3290 9348 3290 9347 3292 9347 3293 9348
      3292 9350 3298 9353 3334 9324 3316 9299
TIME...MOT...LOC 1857Z 219DEG 26KT 3293 9344

50

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
138 PM CST MON FEB 10 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0135 PM     FLASH FLOOD      5 NNE STONEWALL         32.33N 93.77W
02/10/2020                   DE SOTO            LA   PUBLIC

            WATER OVER THE ROAD ON RICHARDSON ROAD SOUTH
            OF SHREVEPORT OFF LINWOOD AVENUE.

&&

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