Flash Flood Warning 5, NWS Shreveport, LA

255 
WGUS74 KSHV 102028
FFSSHV

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
228 PM CST Mon Feb 10 2020

LAC015-017-031-102145-
/O.CON.KSHV.FF.W.0005.000000T0000Z-200210T2145Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
De Soto LA-Caddo LA-Bossier LA-
228 PM CST Mon Feb 10 2020

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 PM CST FOR
NORTHWESTERN DE SOTO...SOUTHERN CADDO AND SOUTHEASTERN BOSSIER
PARISHES...

At 227 PM CST, gauge reports indicated thunderstorms producing heavy
rain across the warned area. Up to three inches of rain have already
fallen. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Automated gauges.

IMPACT...Flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas, 
         highways, streets and underpasses as well as other drainage 
         and low lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Shreveport, Bossier City, Haughton, Stonewall, Eastwood, Fosters,
Keachi, Keat Chie, Curtis, Spring Ridge, Fillmore, Bodcau, Koran,
Ninock, Kickapoo, Keithville, Mc Dade, Reeds Store, Gloster and
Frierson.

Additional rainfall amounts of an inch are possible in the warned 
area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 3232 9404 3264 9345 3247 9344 3225 9346
      3224 9351 3224 9361 3222 9360 3210 9404

FLASH FLOOD...GAUGE INDICATED
EXPECTED RAINFALL...1-2 INCHES IN 1 HOUR

$$

50

954 
WGUS74 KSHV 102137
FFSSHV

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
337 PM CST Mon Feb 10 2020

LAC015-017-031-102146-
/O.EXP.KSHV.FF.W.0005.000000T0000Z-200210T2145Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
De Soto LA-Caddo LA-Bossier LA-
337 PM CST Mon Feb 10 2020

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN DE SOTO...SOUTHERN CADDO
AND SOUTHEASTERN BOSSIER PARISHES WILL EXPIRE AT 345 PM CST...

Although some showers do remain in the area, the heavy rain has 
ended. Flood waters are receding and flooding is no longer expected 
to pose a threat. Please continue to heed any remaining road 
closures.

LAT...LON 3232 9404 3264 9345 3247 9344 3225 9346
      3224 9351 3224 9361 3222 9360 3210 9404

$$

50

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1200 PM CST Mon Feb 10 2020

.AVIATION...
IFR/low IFR cigs will persist through the TAF period across much
of NE TX/NW LA/SW AR, behind a cold front which will continue to
slowly shift SE across Deep E TX/N LA through the afternoon and
overnight hours. A band of convection that has developed along and
just ahead of the front over portions of E TX/N LA/extreme Srn AR,
is expected to persist through the afternoon and evening,
affecting the TYR/GGG/SHV/MLU/ELD terminals. Some of the stronger
storms will result in strong turbulence, LIFR cigs, and reduced
vsbys, before diminishing from W to E overnight. -SHRA are
expected to increase across extreme NE TX/SW AR later this
afternoon, although thunder is not anticipated at TXK attm.
Meanwhile, MVFR cigs over the Srn sections of Deep E TX and Ncntrl
LA are expected to deteriorate to IFR with the approach of the
front, with LIFR/IFR cigs and reduced vsbys in BR/-DZ expected to
persist through the remainder of the 18Z TAF period. Areas of
-RA/SHRA are expected to increase from W to E across the region
from 12-18Z Tuesday, maintaining IFR cigs and reduced vsbys. NNW
winds 5-9kts behind the front, with SW winds 5-10kts ahead of the
bndry, will become NNE 5-10kts later tonight as the front exits
the region late.

15

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1047 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2020/

SHORT TERM.../This Afternoon/

The morning sfc analysis indicates a cold front slowly drifting SE
across portions of E TX/SW AR, extending from just S of a PSN/JSO,
to S of a RFI, to just W of SHV, to near a CDh to PBF line as of
16Z. As expected, a broken line of convection, some of which
contain locally heavy rainfall, has narrowed in along the frontal
sfc across portions of Lower E TX/N LA/extreme SCntrl AR, with
sfc obs indicating that a quick inch of rain has fallen over the
last 1-2 hours. This will be the area to watch for potential
flooding as frontal convergence as well as convergence along the
H925-850 trough between the I-20 corridor and the AR/LA line will
continue to focus convection, especially as overrunning is progged
to increase this afternoon near and atop the front as it slips
slowly S into Deep E TX/Ncntrl LA.

Have raised pops back to high end categorical for this corridor,
and had to re-add mention of heavy rain in the forecast to account
for the current/expected trends. Did make some minor tweaks to max
temps today based on the current frontal position, lowering max
temps a bit over NE TX behind the front, while also bumping temps
up a tad over portions of Deep E TX/Srn sections of Ncntrl LA to
account for the break in convection and continued warm advection.

The severe threat across the warm sector still looks marginal
based on the limited instability, but can't rule out an isolated
severe storm over the Srn sections of Ncntrl LA near the front
with the increased frontal forcing in the warmer/more moist air
mass later this afternoon.

Zone update already out...grids will be available shortly.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  66  48  52  45 / 100  90  90  90
MLU  70  49  54  46 / 100  90  70  80
DEQ  60  43  48  40 /  50  50  80  90
TXK  61  45  48  42 /  80  60  90  90
ELD  66  45  49  43 / 100  90  90  90
TYR  55  46  52  44 /  90  70  90  90
GGG  60  48  52  44 /  90  80  90  90
LFK  74  52  60  51 /  90  90  80  90

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Flash Flood Watch through Wednesday afternoon for ARZ072-073.

LA...Flash Flood Watch through Wednesday afternoon for LAZ001>006-
     010>014-017>022.

OK...None.
TX...Flash Flood Watch through Wednesday afternoon for TXZ125-126-
     136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

15

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
623 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2020

ARZ050-051-059>061-070-071-OKZ077-TXZ096-097-108>112-124-111230-
Sevier-Howard-Little River-Hempstead-Nevada-Miller-Lafayette-
McCurtain-Red River-Bowie-Franklin-Titus-Camp-Morris-Cass-Wood-
623 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest
Arkansas, southeast Oklahoma and northeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

Showers and thunderstorms will continue today and tonight as a
cold front drops southeastward of the area. Localized heavy
rainfall will be possible with storms and may lead to a flash
flooding threat early today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday...

The front will stall out across central Louisiana late today and
then several upper level disturbances will ride along the boundary
and bring rounds of showers and isolated thunderstorms through
Wednesday. Storm total rainfall amounts will be 2-4 inches across
the area today through Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of emergency management personnel...amateur radio
operators...and storm spotters may be needed early today but is
not likely.

ARZ072-073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-TXZ125-126-136>138-149>153-
165>167-111230-
Columbia-Union-Caddo-Bossier-Webster-Claiborne-Lincoln-De Soto-
Red River-Bienville-Jackson-Ouachita-Sabine-Natchitoches-Winn-
Grant-Caldwell-La Salle-Upshur-Marion-Smith-Gregg-Harrison-
Cherokee-Rusk-Panola-Nacogdoches-Shelby-Angelina-San Augustine-
623 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
Arkansas, southwest Arkansas, north central Louisiana, northwest
Louisiana, east Texas and northeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

Showers and thunderstorms will continue today and tonight as a
cold front drops southeastward across the area. A few of the
storms in Deep East Texas, central Louisiana, and the ArkLaMiss
may become strong to severe. The primary threats with the storms
will be flash flooding, large hail, and damaging winds. An
isolated tornado also cannot be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday...

The front will stall out across central Louisiana late today and
then several upper level disturbances will ride along the boundary
and bring rounds of showers and thunderstorms with localized heavy
rain. This will allow for the flash flooding threat to continue
through Wednesday night. Storm total rainfall amounts will be 3-6
inches across the area with localized higher amounts possible.

There is the potential for storms to become strong to severe in
central Louisiana and the ArkLaMiss on Wednesday afternoon. Large
hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes will be possible with storms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of emergency management personnel...amateur radio
operators...and storm spotters will likely be needed this
afternoon through tonight and again on Wednesday.

04

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
715 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2020

TXZ152-101345-
Nacogdoches TX-
715 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN NACOGDOCHES COUNTY UNTIL
745 AM CST...

At 715 AM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Douglass, or 10 miles west of Nacogdoches, moving northeast at 40
mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Nacogdoches, Douglass, Trawick and Appleby.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3150 9483 3165 9495 3184 9468 3184 9464
      3167 9442
TIME...MOT...LOC 1315Z 234DEG 33KT 3163 9482

04