Severe Thunderstorm Warning 36, NWS Springfield, MO

290 
WWUS53 KSGF 122121
SVSSGF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
421 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2020

MOC203-122200-
/O.CON.KSGF.SV.W.0036.000000T0000Z-200312T2200Z/
Shannon MO-
421 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN SHANNON COUNTY...

At 421 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Winona, or 17
miles west of Van Buren, moving east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and half dollar size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Winona...                         

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for south central
Missouri.

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3710 9102 3708 9122 3689 9122 3689 9142
      3703 9141 3721 9125 3725 9113 3720 9112
      3720 9109 3718 9109 3716 9104 3714 9104
      3714 9102
TIME...MOT...LOC 2121Z 282DEG 40KT 3696 9132 

HAIL...1.25IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Rothstein

267 
WWUS53 KSGF 122133
SVSSGF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
433 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2020

MOC203-122143-
/O.CAN.KSGF.SV.W.0036.000000T0000Z-200312T2200Z/
Shannon MO-
433 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2020

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN SHANNON COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for south central
Missouri.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
Springfield.

LAT...LON 3710 9102 3708 9122 3689 9122 3689 9142
      3703 9141 3721 9125 3725 9113 3720 9112
      3720 9109 3718 9109 3716 9104 3714 9104
      3714 9102
TIME...MOT...LOC 2132Z 261DEG 36KT 3698 9116 

$$

Rothstein

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
321 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This evening)
Issued at 142 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2020

The focus continues to be the potential for severe weather late
this afternoon across the eastern Ozarks.

The upper levels of the atmosphere continue to exhibit a split
flow regime with a cutoff low centered over Catalina and
northwest flow across the northern Rockies. This has resulted in
confluence across the central Plains, enhancing the 300-mb jet
streak to 100-120 kts as it noses into central Missouri. The net
result has been an increase in deep layer (0-6 km) shear across
the Ozarks; the key ingredient driving the severe weather threat.

At the surface, a low-pressure system can be analyzed over
Jefferson City, with a cold front extending from Chanute, KS to
Oklahoma City, OK. Meanwhile, a large and unstable warm sector
has opened across southwest Missouri with surface dewpoints in the
low 60s and temperatures in the mid 70s.

Data from our 18z sounding resembles a classic loaded gun, with a
capping inversion beneath 1300 J/Kg of surface-based CAPE. An EML
(elevated mixed layer) advecting in from the west will result in
steepening mid- level lapse rates over the next couple hours,
effectively eroding the cap and allowing storms to initialize
along the surface cold front as it pushes south of Interstate 44.

The low-level kinematic field across the eastern Ozarks reveals a
40-50 kt LLJ (low- level jet) nosing in ahead of the cold front,
with 0-3km SRH (storm-relative helicity) values progged between
200-300 m^2/s^2. With a roughly 45 degree angle between the bulk
shear vector and the line of forcing (the cold front), the storm
mode will likely be a line of long- lived isolated supercells.
Therefore, all types of severe weather will be possible by this
evening including thunderstorm wind gusts exceeding 60 MPH, large
hail to the size of half-dollars, and tornados.

The CAMs (convective allowing models) are hinting that storms
begin to organize and intensify east of a Gainesville-to-Eminence
line.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Thursday)
Issued at 142 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2020

Friday afternoon will be cooler and dry in the wake of frontal
passage with highs only in the low 50s. However, the closed
upper-level low begins to open up over the Dessert Southwest,
summoning in a deep moisture fetch from both the Pacific and
Gulf. By Friday night, moderate-to-heavy rain will lift into
southwest Missouri ahead of mid-level shortwave energy. Model QPF
currently paints a widespread 1.0-1.5" of rain across the Ozarks
for Friday night into Saturday.

Saturday night through Sunday will be a dry period with below
normal temperatures as high pressure settles into the region.

Despite some notable discrepancies in the medium-range guidance,
next week continues to look like a wet and unsettled period with
multiple rounds of rain. Temperatures during this stretch will
likely be near their normal values with daily highs near 60
degrees. Meanwhile, frost potential on overnight lows really only
exists Saturday and Sunday nights across the valleys of the
eastern Ozarks.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1147 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2020

A frontal system moving through the Ozarks early this afternoon
will keep around plenty of high-level clouds. The net effect will
be continued VFR conditions through this TAF period. The main
concern for pilots this afternoon could be some light turbulence
north of warm front, which currently extends from KJEF to KPAH.
Such turbulence would mainly be focused across central Missouri.

Surface winds will gradually veer from southwest this afternoon to
north tonight as a surface cold front makes its passage.
Sustained surface wind speeds this afternoon will be 10-15 kts
with occasional gusts to 25 kts. Then by tonight, sustained
surface wind speeds will be around 10 kts with occasional gusts to
20 kts.

If pilots are flying east of the JLN/SGF/BBG terminals beyond 21z
(4pm), showers and thunderstorms can be expected.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Albano
LONG TERM...Albano
AVIATION...Albano

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
338 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2020

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-132045-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
338 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Limited tornado risk.
  Limited hail risk.
  Limited thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Limited lightning risk.
  Limited non thunderstorm wind risk.

DISCUSSION...

 A frontal system is moving across southern Missouri this
afternoon. Thunderstorms are expected to initiate south of
Interstate 44 and east of Highway 65, eventually evolving into a
line of discrete supercells as a cold front forces these storms
toward the bootheel region of Missouri by early this evening. All
severe weather hazards will be possible, including strong
thunderstorm winds gusts exceeding 60 MPH, large hail to the size
of half-dollars, and a few tornados. Frequent cloud-to- ground
lightning and brief heavy downpours will also accompany these
storms.

Confidence continues to increase with most short-term model
guidance indicating the strongest storms to occur east of a
Gainesville- to- Eminence line between 4 PM and 8 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

  Additional chances for rain and thunderstorms will occur Friday
  night into Saturday and again next week. There may be an
  increasing flooding risk as we get into next week if the region
  sees repeated rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 Spotter activation may be needed later today or tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/sitrep

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Albano

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
357 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2020

MOZ098-106-122130-
Oregon MO-Shannon MO-
357 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN SHANNON AND NORTHWESTERN
OREGON COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM CDT...

At 357 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Birch Tree, or near Mountain View, moving east at 50 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Winona...                         Birch Tree...
Eminence...                       Montier...
Alley Spring...                   Teresita...
West Eminence...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for south central
Missouri.

LAT...LON 3708 9122 3683 9122 3686 9166 3701 9166
      3716 9156 3724 9112 3720 9112 3720 9109
      3718 9109 3717 9104 3714 9104 3714 9102
      3709 9102
TIME...MOT...LOC 2057Z 271DEG 44KT 3695 9160

Rothstein