Severe Thunderstorm Warning 234, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
332 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2020

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a mesoscale convective
circulation over northeast OK and northwest AR continue to spread
slowly eastward into southeast Kansas and southwest Misosuri this
afternoon. Another circulation over south central Missouri
has drifted into southeast Missouri but not before bringing heavy
rainfall to the eastern Ozarks.

The better instability for strong to severe storms will be south
of the forecast area in central and north AR where better
instability resides. Extensive cloud cover has limited instability
enough to keep storms below severe intensities but with abundant
moisture and enhanced convergence near the circulation, expect to
see storms persist at least through early evening.

Expect to see isolated to scattered showers and storms Wednesday
afternoon mainly over the eastern MO Ozarks in vicinity of slow
moving upper level disturbance.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2020

We will continue to see intermittent mainly afternoon scattered
storms through the end of the week as weak upper level
disturbances interact with the warm and unstable airmass and the
weak front meandering over the region. Overall think better
chances for precip will be near the KS/OK borders on the eastern
edge of the upper ridge buiding over the southwest US.

It still looks like we will transition to cooler conditions next
week but could see another surge in temperatures on Saturday with
the upper ridge expanding into the central Plains.

On Sunday, an upper level trough and cold front will move
southward from the northern Plains into the Ozarks and bring some
cooler air into the region. Decent upper level flow will improve
chances for more organized convection along the front but still
too early for severe potential. Temperatures are expected to rise
only into the 80s on Monday and may see some areas remain below 80
degrees on Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1133 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2020

Storm development will persist through the afternoon as an small
scale convective circulation over eastern Ok and northwest AR
moves eastward along the MO/AR border. There will be the potential
for wind gusts up to 40 mph.

Storm activity will decrease during the evening as the MCV exits
the region with VFR conditions through tonight.

Could see another round of afternoon storms toward the end of the
forecast period as airmass destabilizes over the region.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Terry
LONG TERM...Terry
AVIATION...Terry

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
247 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2020

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-122000-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
247 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Limited thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Limited flooding risk.
  Limited lightning risk.
  Elevated excessive heat risk.

DISCUSSION...

Thunderstorms will persist through early this evening for
locations south of the Highway 54 corridor. A strong storm or two
may be possible, but no severe weather is expected. Localized
heavy rainfall and flooding may be possible where thunderstorms
persist over a given location.

Heat index values in the mid 90s will be possible this afternoon,
mainly over central and west central Missouri.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Additional scattered storm activity will be possible on a daily
basis from Wednesday into the coming weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/sitrep

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Terry

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1125 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2020

MOZ102>104-111730-
Barry MO-Taney MO-Stone MO-
1125 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN TANEY...SOUTHERN STONE
AND SOUTHEASTERN BARRY COUNTIES UNTIL 1230 PM CDT...

At 1125 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Urbanette, or 9 miles north of Berryville, moving northeast at 25
mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Branson...                        Lake Taneycomo...
Table Rock Lake...                Table Rock State Park...
Hollister...                      Silver Dollar City...
Kimberling City...                Forsyth...
Merriam Woods...                  Shell Knob...
Kissee Mills...                   Reeds Spring...
Rockaway Beach...                 Bull Creek...
Indian Point...                   Branson West...
Taneyville...                     Golden...
Table Rock...                     Emerald Beach...

LAT...LON 3650 9376 3661 9372 3682 9331 3681 9304
      3650 9305
TIME...MOT...LOC 1625Z 244DEG 21KT 3651 9355

Albano

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1149 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2020

MOZ090-094-095-102-103-111730-
Barry MO-Greene MO-Lawrence MO-Christian MO-Stone MO-
1149 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN CHRISTIAN...NORTHERN
STONE...NORTHEASTERN BARRY...SOUTHEASTERN LAWRENCE AND SOUTH CENTRAL
GREENE COUNTIES UNTIL 1230 PM CDT...

At 1149 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Crane to 7 miles west of Kimberling City.
Movement was northeast at 20 mph.

Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Nixa...                           Republic...
Table Rock Lake...                Aurora...
Battlefield...                    Marionville...
Clever...                         Crane...
Billings...                       Highlandville...
Verona...                         Galena...
Brookline...                      Mccord Bend...
Hurley...                         Spokane...
Cape Fair...                      Wheelerville...
Chestnutridge...                  Jenkins...

This includes Interstate 44 near mile marker 69.

LAT...LON 3700 9385 3719 9336 3681 9317 3682 9331
      3665 9364
TIME...MOT...LOC 1649Z 240DEG 16KT 3690 9366 3666 9356

Albano

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
439 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2020

MOZ067-078-112215-
Cedar MO-St. Clair MO-
439 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN CEDAR AND WESTERN
ST. CLAIR COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM CDT...

At 438 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
El Dorado Springs, moving northwest at 10 mph. Another strong storm
was located 4 miles northwest of Roscoe in St. Clair County and was
nearly stationary.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
El Dorado Springs...              Stockton...
Roscoe...                         Olympia...
Tiffin...                         Johnson City...
Taberville...                     Caplinger Mills...
Filley...                         Cedar Springs...
Monegaw Springs...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3769 9376 3768 9407 3816 9405 3816 9374
TIME...MOT...LOC 2138Z 117DEG 8KT 3781 9397

DSA