Flash Flood Warning 55, NWS Springfield, MO

624 
WGUS73 KSGF 111653
FFSSGF

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1153 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2020

MOC105-169-111703-
/O.CAN.KSGF.FF.W.0055.000000T0000Z-200811T2045Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Laclede MO-Pulaski MO-
1153 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2020

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN LACLEDE AND WESTERN
PULASKI COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

The heavy rain has ended. Flash flooding is no longer expected to
pose a threat. Please continue to heed any remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 3793 9211 3785 9223 3778 9231 3766 9227
      3766 9238 3760 9243 3776 9253 3783 9250
      3783 9245 3786 9241 3791 9241 3800 9211

$$

Albano

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
629 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2020

...12Z Aviation Update...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 338 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2020

Early this morning, there is some shower and thunderstorm activity
present across southern Kansas into central Oklahoma associated
with and MCV and the remnants of yesterday's late evening
convection over the Central Plains. Recent CAM runs have become
less bullish on early morning redevelopment of convection across
southeast Kansas and western Missouri ahead of the MCV, so should
see most of the area stay dry through the early morning, though
some isolated convection may develop.

Still some decent spread in model solutions regarding additional
convective development today into this evening. Mid-level
shortwave energy approaching from the west will interact with the
approaching cold front from the north, the remnant MCV and residual
outflow boundaries near the to rekindle initially isolated
convection near the Missouri/Arkansas border by mid morning, with
increasing coverage into the afternoon and lingering into the
evening hours. This activity will primarily be confined to the
warm sector along and south of the cold front where a more
unstable airmass will reside, generally south of the Highway 54
corridor. Given relatively weak shear aloft, storm mode should
remain primarily as a pulse storm/multicell cluster hybrid. Not
expecting severe weather with these storms, though cannot
completely rule out an isolated strong storm or two with small
hail and brief gusty winds as updrafts collapse. The primary
concern would be a localized heavy rainfall and perhaps flash
flooding threat should updrafts reside over a given location for a
prolonged period of time.

Given persistent cloud cover throughout the day today, high
temperatures should generally be a few degrees cooler in the upper
80s to low 90s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 338 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2020

Not much of a change to the mid to late week pattern relative to
previous forecasts as a moist airmass interacts with a series of
shortwaves to initiate daily scattered showers and thunderstorms
over the region. By no means is widespread rainfall expected, but
cannot rule out at least a localized low-end flood concern for
locations that see multiple rounds of thunderstorms during the
Wednesday to Friday timeframe. Increased cloud cover should keep
temperatures a few degrees cooler than what we have recently seen,
with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s.

Some shortwave ridging builds into the south-central CONUS into
the weekend, though a deepening trough over the upper Midwest
during this timeframe could bring the edge of a trailing cold
front southwards into Missouri. Do have some low end POPs for both
Saturday and Sunday afternoons as some moisture hangs around the
area, but expect shower/storm activity to be more isolated in
nature with most locations remaining dry.

Cooler and drier conditions arrive behind the cold front during
the early portion of next week, with highs expected to drop back
below average into the low to mid 80s alongside drier dewpoints
in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 618 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2020

Some gravity waves are kicking off convection east of KSGF and up
towards the Fort Leonard Wood. Expect most of this early morning
activity to remain east of the terminals, though some showers are
expected within the vicinity of KSGF. Scattered thunderstorms will
then develop during the daytime hours today as a MCV/upper-level
shortwave moves through. A few of these storms could become
strong, with brief gusty winds, small hail and frequent lightning.
Confidence in exact storm placement is still a little uncertain,
so have introduced VCTS for the morning when coverage will be more
isolated and PROB30 for the afternoon/evening at KSGF/KJLN/KBBG
when coverage becomes more scattered. Thunderstorm activity is
expected to diminish towards the late evening.

Generally light southerly winds are expected at the surface
outside of thunderstorms, with some brief gusts to 10-15 kts
during the afternoon. Also expect VFR conditions when
thunderstorms are not near the aerodromes.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Rothstein
LONG TERM...Rothstein
AVIATION...Rothstein

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
845 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2020

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-121345-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
845 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Limited flooding risk.
  Elevated lightning risk.
  Limited excessive heat risk.

DISCUSSION...

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible later this
morning through early this evening for locations south of the
Highway 54 corridor. A strong storm or two may be possible, but
no severe weather is expected. Localized heavy rainfall and
flooding may be possible where thunderstorms persist over a given
location.

Heat index values in the mid 90s to low 100s will be possible
this afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Additional scattered storm activity will be possible on a daily
basis from Wednesday into the coming weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/sitrep

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Albano