Severe Thunderstorm Warning 195, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
255 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2020

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)

It was a busy night over extreme southeast Kansas and the Missouri
Ozarks. Two thunderstorm complexes were converging upon each other
which could end up creating some severe weather and flash
flooding.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for several counties over
southeast Kansas and western Missouri, mainly for the risk of
damaging wind gusts.

So a stormy morning is in store, with some locations receiving
excessive rainfall. This activity should dissipate or move out of
the Ozarks by mid day. There is a chance that additional scattered
showers and thunderstorms redevelop this afternoon and evening,
however, this will depend upon how worked over the airmass is.

Look for highs to warm into the 80s today under a mix of sun and
clouds.

For tonight, humid conditions will persist with lows only dropping
to the low 70s. We could experience some scattered thunderstorms
tonight's as small disturbances move overhead on the northeast
periphery of a dirty ridge.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)

For Friday, a moist and unstable airmass will continue over the
Ozarks while remaining positioned within under a zone in which
weak upper waves will likely trigger scattered convection.
Therefore we will continue scattered chances for rain as
temperatures warm into the 80s. It will feel quite muggy in some
places with heat indices reaching the mid and upper 90s.

By Friday night through Saturday, a backdoor surface front
could provide sufficient low level convergence for additional
scattered thunderstorms across southern Missouri. The upper ridge
will over this feature will be strongest on Saturday, however,
most models have a QPF signal.

Looks as though Sunday through Monday morning is setting up to be
a dry period as Tropical Storm Cristobal makes landfall near the
Sabine River. Models still have the remnants tracking into
Southwest Missouri by Monday afternoon, potentially producing some
heavy rainfall.

Given the upper air pattern, this remnant circulation quickly
exits the Ozarks by Tuesday afternoon, following by a strong cold
front that sweeps through. This feature will bring in a dry
continental airmass for Tuesday night into Wednesday. Temperatures
next Wednesday may only warm into the upper 70s to around 80.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1152 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2020

VFR conditions are expected for the majority of the overnight
hours across southwest Missouri as a westward moving cluster of
storms stays primarily confined to central Missouri over the next
several hours. However, a linear convective system is rapidly moving
southeast out of Nebraska and models suggest it reaches southwest
Missouri by the early morning hours. This would place the storms on
the doorstep of the KSGF/KJLN terminals around 10-12Z and KBBG
around 11-13Z, with the line of storms quickly pushing clear of the
TAF sites and into Arkansas by late morning.
Short-lived MVFR to IFR conditions and variable gusty winds will
be possible near the thunderstorms, with a return to VFR
conditions for the remainder of the TAF period after the
thunderstorms pass.

Aside from thunderstorms, surface winds will generally remain
south to southwesterly at 5-10 knots and gust up to 10-15 knots
during the morning into afternoon.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Rothstein

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
417 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0352 AM     TSTM WND DMG     3 SE HORTON             37.94N 94.33W
06/04/2020                   VERNON             MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS DAMAGED
            SOME TREES AND SNAPPED AN ANTENNA POLE IN
            HALF AT A FARM NORTH OF NEVADA.

&&

DC