Severe Thunderstorm Warning 193, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
255 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2020

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)

It was a busy night over extreme southeast Kansas and the Missouri
Ozarks. Two thunderstorm complexes were converging upon each other
which could end up creating some severe weather and flash
flooding.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for several counties over
southeast Kansas and western Missouri, mainly for the risk of
damaging wind gusts.

So a stormy morning is in store, with some locations receiving
excessive rainfall. This activity should dissipate or move out of
the Ozarks by mid day. There is a chance that additional scattered
showers and thunderstorms redevelop this afternoon and evening,
however, this will depend upon how worked over the airmass is.

Look for highs to warm into the 80s today under a mix of sun and
clouds.

For tonight, humid conditions will persist with lows only dropping
to the low 70s. We could experience some scattered thunderstorms
tonight's as small disturbances move overhead on the northeast
periphery of a dirty ridge.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)

For Friday, a moist and unstable airmass will continue over the
Ozarks while remaining positioned within under a zone in which
weak upper waves will likely trigger scattered convection.
Therefore we will continue scattered chances for rain as
temperatures warm into the 80s. It will feel quite muggy in some
places with heat indices reaching the mid and upper 90s.

By Friday night through Saturday, a backdoor surface front
could provide sufficient low level convergence for additional
scattered thunderstorms across southern Missouri. The upper ridge
will over this feature will be strongest on Saturday, however,
most models have a QPF signal.

Looks as though Sunday through Monday morning is setting up to be
a dry period as Tropical Storm Cristobal makes landfall near the
Sabine River. Models still have the remnants tracking into
Southwest Missouri by Monday afternoon, potentially producing some
heavy rainfall.

Given the upper air pattern, this remnant circulation quickly
exits the Ozarks by Tuesday afternoon, following by a strong cold
front that sweeps through. This feature will bring in a dry
continental airmass for Tuesday night into Wednesday. Temperatures
next Wednesday may only warm into the upper 70s to around 80.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1152 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2020

VFR conditions are expected for the majority of the overnight
hours across southwest Missouri as a westward moving cluster of
storms stays primarily confined to central Missouri over the next
several hours. However, a linear convective system is rapidly moving
southeast out of Nebraska and models suggest it reaches southwest
Missouri by the early morning hours. This would place the storms on
the doorstep of the KSGF/KJLN terminals around 10-12Z and KBBG
around 11-13Z, with the line of storms quickly pushing clear of the
TAF sites and into Arkansas by late morning.
Short-lived MVFR to IFR conditions and variable gusty winds will
be possible near the thunderstorms, with a return to VFR
conditions for the remainder of the TAF period after the
thunderstorms pass.

Aside from thunderstorms, surface winds will generally remain
south to southwesterly at 5-10 knots and gust up to 10-15 knots
during the morning into afternoon.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Rothstein

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
331 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2020

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-050845-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
331 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Limited hail risk.
  Limited thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Elevated flooding risk.
  Elevated lightning risk.
  Limited excessive heat risk.

DISCUSSION...

A severe line of thunderstorms will continue to move across
extreme southeast Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks this morning.
Damaging wind gusts are expected with this line, as well as some
hail up to quarters.

Flash flooding will also be possible given the heavy rainfall
rates expected.

Hot and humid conditions are expected to unfold this afternoon,
which could bring heat index values well into the 90s.

Additional scattered thunderstorms can not be ruled out late this
afternoon into tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Additional scattered thunderstorms will be possible Friday into
Saturday evening.

Afternoon heat indices from 90 to 100 degrees are expected from
Friday through Sunday.

There is then some potential for the remnants of Tropical Storm
Cristobal to track north through the region early next week. While
the track remains uncertain, there would be the potential for
heavy rainfall and flooding in its vicinity.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed later today or tonight for
for portions of southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/sitrep

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Cramer

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
306 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2020

KSZ073-097-MOZ066-067-077-040900-
Bourbon KS-Crawford KS-Vernon MO-Barton MO-St. Clair MO-
306 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BOURBON...EASTERN CRAWFORD...
NORTHWESTERN BARTON...VERNON AND WESTERN ST. CLAIR COUNTIES UNTIL 400
AM CDT...

At 306 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 10 miles northwest of Warrensburg to 6 miles
south of Holden to near Archie to near Mound City. Movement was south
at 50 mph.

Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Nevada...                         Fort Scott...
Girard...                         Arma...
Appleton City...                  Marmaton...
Mulberry...                       Franklin...
Arcadia...                        Walker...
Schell City...                    Bronaugh...
Fulton...                         Redfield...
Hepler...                         Moundville...
Richards...                       Milo...
Mapleton...                       Deerfield...

This includes Interstate 49 between mile markers 80 and 107.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 AM CDT for
southeastern Kansas...and southwestern and west central Missouri.

LAT...LON 3804 9495 3804 9461 3806 9461 3806 9449
      3805 9424 3802 9423 3805 9421 3806 9413
      3804 9411 3803 9406 3821 9405 3821 9378
      3789 9396 3790 9407 3782 9407 3773 9421
      3737 9497
TIME...MOT...LOC 0806Z 356DEG 44KT 3884 9390 3862 9402 3846 9427 3818
9488

Albano

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
312 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0311 AM     FLASH FLOOD      2 NNE DIXON             38.02N 92.08W
06/04/2020                   MARIES             MO   PUBLIC

            EXCESSIVE RAINFALL CAUSED FLASH FLOODING
            ALONG THE MARIES RIVER. COUNTY ROAD 624 AT
            THE MARIES RIVER WAS FLOODED AND IMPASSABLE
            DUE TO THE FLOODING.

&&

DC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
336 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0336 AM     FLASH FLOOD      2 SSW DIXON             37.96N 92.11W
06/04/2020                   PULASKI            MO   PUBLIC

            JONES CREEK AT HIGHWAY O WAS FLOODED DUE TO
            EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.

&&

DC