Severe Thunderstorm Warning 179, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
323 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 157 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

Scattered thunderstorms have started to develop as convective
temperatures have been reached. Initial development has been
focused mainly near and east of U.S. 65 on the edge of a weak
850 mb jet. Coverage should quickly increase this afternoon as
cold pools begin to spread out and kick up new updrafts.

Instability and moisture profiles favor a Marginal Risk for a few
strong to severe storms into early this evening. Locally damaging
wind gusts and hail up to the size of quarters will be possible
with the strongest updrafts.

We will also have to monitor for localized flash flood potential
for areas that receive multiple storms. The good news is that
these storms should move NNE at around 15-20 knots, thus residence
time of a single cell over a given location should not be too
long.

Storms will then begin to decrease in coverage later this evening
with the loss of daytime heating. Short range models do indicate
that weak isentropic upglide will be present over the region
overnight. Thus, we cannot rule out a few elevated storms. Perhaps
the best chance of storms overnight will be over western Missouri
and southeastern Kansas as short wave energy approaches from the
southwest. Lows tonight will once again be in the middle to upper
60s.

For Memorial Day, a deep upper level trough will slowly migrate
east across the Plains, with the 500 mb axis stretching from
central North Dakota to west Texas by 00Z Tuesday. That
aforementioned short wave trough to our southwest will track up
into eastern Kansas by Monday morning. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are therefore expected during the morning hours,
especially west of U.S. 65.

Thunderstorm potential should then increase along and east of the
U.S. 65 corridor in the afternoon as convective temperatures are
approached and potential outflow works into that region. There
will again be a Marginal Risk for a few strong to severe storms,
especially if storm coverage remains somewhat limited until
afternoon. Memorial Day highs should be a bit cooler than what we
have seen the past few days with more in the way of cloud cover
expected.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 157 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

That main upper level trough axis will move very little through
midweek with energy closing off over Texas and the main westerlies
retreating to the U.S./Canadian border. Showers and thunderstorms
will remain possible at times for much of the week with the upper
level shear axis in the vicinity and a low-level jet occasionally
nosing north into the region.

We will have to continue monitoring the hydro situation given the
wet antecedent conditions. The National Blend of Models, GEFS
plumes, and CIPS analogs continue to advertise high probabilities
of widespread 1-3" rainfall amounts across the region from
tonight through Friday. The highest amounts should generally be
near and west of the U.S. 65 corridor. Locally higher amounts
will certainly be possible given relatively high precipitable
water values.

Global models and ensembles then advertise that shear axis
finally beginning to shift east of the region by next weekend.
This would support conditions finally drying out. Temperatures for
most of the week will be near normal, although convective trends
and cloud cover will certainly play roles in eventual high
temperatures on a daily basis.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected from
this afternoon into early this evening. Local MVFR and IFR
conditions are expected with storms along with gusty and erratic
winds.

The potential for thunderstorms will continue later tonight
and Monday morning, although coverage should be less. We therefore
covered this potential with PROB30 groups.

Outside of thunderstorms, surface winds will remain out of the
south with some gusts over 20 knots this afternoon.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Schaumann

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
333 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-252045-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
333 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Limited hail risk.
  Limited thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Limited flooding risk.
  Elevated lightning risk.

DISCUSSION...

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will continue this afternoon
and persist into early this evening, especially near and east of
the Highway 65 corridor. A few storms may produce locally
damaging wind gusts and hail up to the size of quarters. Frequent
lightning and locally heavy rainfall are also expected with this
activity. There is a limited risk for localized flash flooding.

Additional showers and thunderstorms will be possible later
tonight, mainly across southeastern Kansas and western Missouri.
Cloud to ground lightning and locally heavy rainfall will be the
primary potential hazards late tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Occasional thunderstorms are expected for much of the week. A few
strong to marginally severe storms are possible on Memorial Day,
mainly near and west of the Highway 65 corridor.

Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are expected this week, with
locally higher amounts possible. This will lead to the potential
for flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/sitrep

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Schaumann

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
409 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0343 PM     HAIL             3 E NIXA                37.03N 93.25W
05/24/2020  U0.75 INCH       CHRISTIAN          MO   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM MPING: PENNY (0.75 IN.).

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
425 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

MOZ091-242215-
Webster MO-
425 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN WEBSTER COUNTY UNTIL
515 PM CDT...

At 424 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Marshfield, moving northeast at 20 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Marshfield...                     Niangua...
Elkland...                        Northview...

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 94 and 109.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3731 9308 3749 9307 3749 9290 3748 9276
      3725 9292
TIME...MOT...LOC 2124Z 206DEG 16KT 3732 9298

Wise

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
429 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0403 PM     HAIL             2 N NIXA                37.07N 93.29W
05/24/2020  M0.88 INCH       CHRISTIAN          MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NICKEL SIZE.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
432 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

MOZ056-057-069-242215-
Camden MO-Miller MO-Morgan MO-
432 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL MILLER...
NORTHWESTERN CAMDEN AND SOUTHEASTERN MORGAN COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM
CDT...

At 432 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Laurie, or 11 miles northwest of Camdenton, moving northeast at 20
mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Lake of The Ozarks...             Village of Four Seasons...
Lake Ozark...                     Laurie...
Sunrise Beach...                  Gravois Mills...
Hurricane Deck...                 Rocky Mount...
Green Bay Terrace...              Barnumton...
Purvis...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3803 9279 3809 9296 3842 9284 3828 9259
TIME...MOT...LOC 2132Z 215DEG 18KT 3814 9285

Wise

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
434 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0348 PM     HAIL             2 WNW FREMONT HILLS     37.07N 93.28W
05/24/2020  M1.50 INCH       CHRISTIAN          MO   PUBLIC

            PICTURE VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

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