Severe Thunderstorm Warning 178, NWS Springfield, MO

973 
WWUS53 KSGF 242128
SVSSGF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
428 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

MOC043-077-242137-
/O.EXP.KSGF.SV.W.0178.000000T0000Z-200524T2130Z/
Christian MO-Greene MO-
428 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTH CENTRAL CHRISTIAN AND
EASTERN GREENE COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 430 PM CDT...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
Springfield.

LAT...LON 3704 9334 3742 9325 3742 9309 3741 9308
      3727 9308 3699 9323
TIME...MOT...LOC 2127Z 203DEG 27KT 3734 9313 

$$

Wise

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
323 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 157 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

Scattered thunderstorms have started to develop as convective
temperatures have been reached. Initial development has been
focused mainly near and east of U.S. 65 on the edge of a weak
850 mb jet. Coverage should quickly increase this afternoon as
cold pools begin to spread out and kick up new updrafts.

Instability and moisture profiles favor a Marginal Risk for a few
strong to severe storms into early this evening. Locally damaging
wind gusts and hail up to the size of quarters will be possible
with the strongest updrafts.

We will also have to monitor for localized flash flood potential
for areas that receive multiple storms. The good news is that
these storms should move NNE at around 15-20 knots, thus residence
time of a single cell over a given location should not be too
long.

Storms will then begin to decrease in coverage later this evening
with the loss of daytime heating. Short range models do indicate
that weak isentropic upglide will be present over the region
overnight. Thus, we cannot rule out a few elevated storms. Perhaps
the best chance of storms overnight will be over western Missouri
and southeastern Kansas as short wave energy approaches from the
southwest. Lows tonight will once again be in the middle to upper
60s.

For Memorial Day, a deep upper level trough will slowly migrate
east across the Plains, with the 500 mb axis stretching from
central North Dakota to west Texas by 00Z Tuesday. That
aforementioned short wave trough to our southwest will track up
into eastern Kansas by Monday morning. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are therefore expected during the morning hours,
especially west of U.S. 65.

Thunderstorm potential should then increase along and east of the
U.S. 65 corridor in the afternoon as convective temperatures are
approached and potential outflow works into that region. There
will again be a Marginal Risk for a few strong to severe storms,
especially if storm coverage remains somewhat limited until
afternoon. Memorial Day highs should be a bit cooler than what we
have seen the past few days with more in the way of cloud cover
expected.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 157 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

That main upper level trough axis will move very little through
midweek with energy closing off over Texas and the main westerlies
retreating to the U.S./Canadian border. Showers and thunderstorms
will remain possible at times for much of the week with the upper
level shear axis in the vicinity and a low-level jet occasionally
nosing north into the region.

We will have to continue monitoring the hydro situation given the
wet antecedent conditions. The National Blend of Models, GEFS
plumes, and CIPS analogs continue to advertise high probabilities
of widespread 1-3" rainfall amounts across the region from
tonight through Friday. The highest amounts should generally be
near and west of the U.S. 65 corridor. Locally higher amounts
will certainly be possible given relatively high precipitable
water values.

Global models and ensembles then advertise that shear axis
finally beginning to shift east of the region by next weekend.
This would support conditions finally drying out. Temperatures for
most of the week will be near normal, although convective trends
and cloud cover will certainly play roles in eventual high
temperatures on a daily basis.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected from
this afternoon into early this evening. Local MVFR and IFR
conditions are expected with storms along with gusty and erratic
winds.

The potential for thunderstorms will continue later tonight
and Monday morning, although coverage should be less. We therefore
covered this potential with PROB30 groups.

Outside of thunderstorms, surface winds will remain out of the
south with some gusts over 20 knots this afternoon.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Schaumann

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
333 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-252045-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
333 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Limited hail risk.
  Limited thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Limited flooding risk.
  Elevated lightning risk.

DISCUSSION...

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will continue this afternoon
and persist into early this evening, especially near and east of
the Highway 65 corridor. A few storms may produce locally
damaging wind gusts and hail up to the size of quarters. Frequent
lightning and locally heavy rainfall are also expected with this
activity. There is a limited risk for localized flash flooding.

Additional showers and thunderstorms will be possible later
tonight, mainly across southeastern Kansas and western Missouri.
Cloud to ground lightning and locally heavy rainfall will be the
primary potential hazards late tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Occasional thunderstorms are expected for much of the week. A few
strong to marginally severe storms are possible on Memorial Day,
mainly near and west of the Highway 65 corridor.

Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are expected this week, with
locally higher amounts possible. This will lead to the potential
for flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/sitrep

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Schaumann

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
255 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

MOZ057-069-242030-
Camden MO-Miller MO-
255 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL MILLER AND NORTHEASTERN
CAMDEN COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM CDT...

At 255 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Osage Beach, moving northeast at 20 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts in excess of 40 mph will be possible
with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Lake of The Ozarks State Park...  Lake of The Ozarks...
Osage Beach...                    Lake Ozark...
Linn Creek...                     Tuscumbia...
Bagnell...                        Brumley...
Ulman...                          Freedom...
Kaiser...

LAT...LON 3796 9262 3804 9274 3833 9254 3820 9230
TIME...MOT...LOC 1955Z 221DEG 17KT 3805 9262

Rothstein

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
259 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

MOZ095-103-104-242030-
Taney MO-Christian MO-Stone MO-
259 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL CHRISTIAN...
NORTHWESTERN TANEY AND EAST CENTRAL STONE COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM
CDT...

At 259 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Silver Dollar City, or near Branson, moving northeast at 10 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of up to 50 mph will be possible
with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Branson...                        Merriam Woods...
Bull Creek...                     Branson West...
Chestnutridge...                  Walnut Shade...

LAT...LON 3664 9330 3671 9339 3692 9325 3681 9301
TIME...MOT...LOC 1959Z 223DEG 9KT 3670 9329

Rothstein

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
314 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

MOZ057-069-242100-
Camden MO-Miller MO-
314 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL MILLER AND NORTHEASTERN
CAMDEN COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM CDT...

At 314 PM CDT, the public reported a strong thunderstorm with penny
size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph near Osage Beach, moving
northeast at 15 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Lake of The Ozarks State Park...  Lake of The Ozarks...
Osage Beach...                    Lake Ozark...
Linn Creek...                     Tuscumbia...
Brumley...                        Ulman...
Freedom...                        Kaiser...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3799 9259 3807 9270 3835 9247 3818 9225
TIME...MOT...LOC 2014Z 226DEG 13KT 3809 9258

Rothstein

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
316 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0311 PM     HAIL             2 SW CAMDENTON          37.99N 92.77W
05/24/2020  M0.75 INCH       CAMDEN             MO   PUBLIC

            PENNY SIZE HAIL WITH 50 MPH WIND GUST.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
338 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

MOZ090-095-242130-
Greene MO-Christian MO-
338 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL CHRISTIAN AND
SOUTHEASTERN GREENE COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM CDT...

At 337 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Ozark, moving northeast at 15 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Southeastern Springfield...       Nixa...
Ozark...                          Rogersville...
Fremont Hills...                  Turners...
Linden...                         Galloway...
Selmore...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3701 9333 3724 9321 3723 9306 3709 9306
      3695 9323
TIME...MOT...LOC 2037Z 217DEG 13KT 3708 9323

Wise

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
343 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0338 PM     HAIL             2 SW NIXA               37.02N 93.31W
05/24/2020  E0.75 INCH       CHRISTIAN          MO   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM MPING: DIME (0.75 IN.).

&&

CKR