Severe Thunderstorm Warning 169, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1222 AM CDT Fri May 15 2020

...Updated for 06Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 130 PM CDT Thu May 14 2020

The immediate concern for this afternoon is the potential for
scattered convection to breakout across southwest Missouri.
Current boundary layer conditions exhibit a a plume of mid 60s
dewpoints beneath an area of steepening mid-level lapse rates on
the order of 7.5-8.0 C/km. This has resulted in MLCAPE values
near 2000 J/kg. One inhibiting factor for storm development
continues to be a capping inversion. However, as adequate surface
heating continues across the region, the expectation is for the
cap to erode; allowing parcels to become surface based.

The amount of deep-layer shear (30 kts) remains somewhat
underwhelming for supercell development, and so the storm mode
will likely favor multi-cells. A couple of these afternoon and
early evening storms could produce large hail to the size of half-
dollars and damaging wind gusts to 60 MPH.

Some convective-allowing models (CAMS) suggest these storms
persist across southwest Missouri from 20z-02z (3pm-9pm).

Attention then quickly turns toward this evening as thunderstorms
develop south of the I-70 corridor in eastern Kansas and begin
propagating southeastward in association with a sagging cold
front. CAPE and shear profiles will favor large hail to the size
of half dollars and damaging thunderstorm wind gusts. As these
storms congeal and grow upscale into a QLCS, the tornado threat
will be low. With the 0-3 km shear vectors not positioned line-
normal, and only 25 kts of shear, a balanced cold pool with
embedded mesovorts just does not seem likely.

Flash flooding will be of great concern overnight with the
potential for very heavy rainfall rates (PWATs nearing 90th
percentile for this time of year). CAMs continue to suggest
differing solution on how the QLCS will propagate overnight, but
confidence in training thunderstorms is greatest in locations west
of US HWY 65 where down-wind propagation is favored, favoring a
slow east- southeast motion of the system cold pool.

With already moist antecedent conditions and elevated streamflows,
a Flash Flood Watch has been issued for portions of eastern Kansas
and western Missouri, where between 1-3 inches of rainfall is
expected with locally higher amounts possible, per the latest HREF
and NBM probabilistic data.

Convection will likely linger well into Friday morning as the
surface cold front slows to a crawl and warm/moist isentropic
ascent continues to glide into the region from the Gulf of Mexico.
As we get into Friday afternoon and evening, there is some
uncertainty on whether the boundary layer will be able to recover
quickly enough to support additional deep moist convection,
especially if outflow/rain-cooled air dives as far south as the
ARKLATEX region.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 130 PM CDT Thu May 14 2020

This weekend could offer yet another round of at least moderate
rainfall. By Saturday, a northern stream shortwave over the
northern Plains may phase together with a closed low over the Red
River Valley. The net result would be another deep moisture fetch
streaming off the Gulf of Mexico and into the Ozarks ahead of
another cold front. At this time, confidence is still low on any
additional ranges of precip during the Saturday/Sunday timeframe,
but it offers the potential to be wet and active.

Then, by Monday, a switch gets flipped. The GEFS continues to show
an anomalous 500- mb ridge building across the central Plains with
surface temperatures warming into the 80s by Tuesday through
Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Fri May 15 2020

A broken line of showers and thunderstorms extended from northeast
Missouri back into eastern Kansas. Short term models brings this
line through the terminals between 09Z-13Z at KSGF and KJLN and
10Z-14Z at KBBG. Ahead of the line VFR flight conditions will be
the rule, while MVFR and local IFR conditions will be likely
within and behind the line of storms. These showers and storms
should drop south of the area by Friday afternoon with a break
expected and VFR flight conditions. Still some uncertainty in the
forecast from late Friday afternoon into the evening hours as some
of the models are indicating more showers and storms developing,
while others remain dry. Think the better chances will reside
beyond this TAF forecast and will keep things dry during the
afternoon and evening hours.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Flash Flood Watch until noon CDT today for MOZ055>057-066>069-
     077>080-088-089-093-094-101-102.

KS...Flash Flood Watch until noon CDT today for KSZ073-097-101.

&&

SHORT TERM...Albano
LONG TERM...Albano
AVIATION...Raberding

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
752 PM CDT Thu May 14 2020

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-160100-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
752 PM CDT Thu May 14 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Limited tornado risk.
  Limited hail risk.
  Limited thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Elevated flooding risk.
  Elevated lightning risk.

DISCUSSION...

  Widely scattered thunderstorms will exit the eastern Ozarks this
  evening. Cloud to ground lightning will be the primary potential
  hazard.

  A line of thunderstorms will then push southeast across portions
  of the outlook area overnight. This line is initially expected to
  push into southeastern Kansas and west-central Missouri around
  midnight before making its way south into southern Missouri
  during the predawn hours.

  Damaging wind gusts to 60 mph and hail up to the size of half
  dollars will be the primary potential severe weather hazards with
  this line of storms. The risk for any tornadoes looks very
  limited and would mainly be confined to areas north of Interstate
  44.

  This line of storms will also produce frequent cloud to ground
  lightning and heavy rainfall rates. This may lead to flash
  flooding, especially near and west of an Osage Beach to Bolivar
  to Cassville line.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

  Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing Friday morning across
  southern Missouri with a marginal risk for a strong to severe
  storm or two.

  Thunderstorms will then remain possible at times into early
  Sunday. There will be a continued risk for flooding through at
  least Saturday, especially for locations that receive multiple
  rounds of heavy rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  Spotter activation may be needed later tonight for much of the
  area, mainly after midnight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/sitrep

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Raberding

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
919 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 E AVA                 36.96N 92.62W
05/14/2020                   DOUGLAS            MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HIGHWAY FF AT HUNTER CREEK IMPASSABLE DUE TO
            HIGH WATER.

&&

KP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
934 PM CDT Thu May 14 2020

MOZ098-150330-
Shannon MO-
934 PM CDT Thu May 14 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN SHANNON COUNTY UNTIL
1030 PM CDT...

At 934 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Summersville, or 10 miles north of Mountain View, moving northeast at
15 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Eminence...                       Summersville...
Alley Spring...

LAT...LON 3706 9165 3722 9165 3737 9154 3715 9136
TIME...MOT...LOC 0234Z 225DEG 12KT 3714 9164

Raberding

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
939 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0820 PM     FLASH FLOOD      4 WNW AVA               36.97N 92.73W
05/14/2020                   DOUGLAS            MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            CORRECTS PREVIOUS FLASH FLOOD REPORT FROM 4
            WNW AVA. 2 FEET OF WATER RUSHING OVER
            HIGHWAY Y AT COWSKIN CREEK.

&&

KP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
940 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0820 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 E AVA                 36.96N 92.62W
05/14/2020                   DOUGLAS            MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            CORRECTS PREVIOUS FLASH FLOOD REPORT FROM 2
            E AVA. HIGHWAY FF AT HUNTER CREEK IMPASSABLE
            DUE TO HIGH WATER.

&&

KP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1006 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1006 PM     HAIL             3 SSE SUMMERSVILLE      37.14N 91.63W
05/14/2020  E0.25 INCH       SHANNON            MO   CO-OP OBSERVER

            HEAVY RAIN AND PEA SIZED HAIL.

&&

JLR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1053 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1040 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 W SUMMERSVILLE        37.18N 91.67W
05/14/2020  E5.50 INCH       TEXAS              MO   BROADCAST MEDIA

            REPORT RELAYED BY BROADCAST MEDIA OF 5.5
            INCHES OF RAINFALL IN SUMMERSVILLE.

&&

KP