River Flood Warning 81, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
616 AM CDT Fri May 15 2020

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 202 AM CDT Fri May 15 2020

A line of thunderstorms will continue to push southeast across
extreme southeastern Kansas and southern Missouri during the
predawn hours. Recent warming cloud tops and a decrease in
lightning support a continued slow weakening trend. However,
damaging wind will remain possible within bows and mergers.

There are also continued concerns for flash flooding, especially
across western Missouri and southeastern Kansas as there have been
training tendencies. The overall line motion across this area has
generally matched downwind-propagating Corfidi vectors (ESE at
10-15 kts), with some local accelerations noted within bows. This
overall line motion will continue to support training potential
west of Highway 65. Line motions should be more swift across the
eastern Ozarks, which should mitigate the flash flooding threat.

As we get into the early to mid-morning hours, this line should
generally shift south of the area with perhaps the exception of
portions of southeastern Kansas and southwestern Missouri. The
last few runs of the RAP have indicated continued upglide as a
low-level jet overrides the outflow.

The big question for the remainder of today is how much the
atmosphere can destabilize beneath a continued west-southwest flow
aloft. A surface cold front will likely be situated somewhere in
the proximity of the I-44 corridor and may provide a trigger for
renewed convection if clouds can clear.

There would be a conditional risk for a few severe storms as mid-
level lapse rates will steepen and promote MLCAPE values of
2500-3000 J/kg. Deep layer shear will generally remain in the
25-30 knot range, supportive of some storm organization.

We have gone with the model blend for highs with most areas
warming into the middle or upper 70s. If clouds can clear, highs
in the lower 80s are quite achievable, especially south of that
front.

Chances for thunderstorms may then increase as we head into
tonight as a low-level jet again becomes established across the
southern and central Plains. Model consistency is very poor
regarding the overall jet placement and structure. However, we are
fairly confident we will see at least scattered thunderstorms
around. Worst case scenario would be the extended RAP solution
which shows a signal for training storms.

At this point, confidence is too low for extension of the Flash
Flood Watch. We are going to let the current event play out and
cancel/expire the watch as activity shifts south. However, a
short-fused new watch would be in play if the RAP solution is
accurate.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 202 AM CDT Fri May 15 2020

By Saturday morning, an upper level trough axis will extend from
a closed low across the western Dakotas to another short wave
trough across northern Texas. This axis will shift east throughout
the day with a cold front eventually pushing southeast across the
region from later Saturday night into Sunday. This will continue
the threat for showers and thunderstorms. We will need to continue
monitoring the hydro situation given antecedent conditions across
the area.

The good news is that upper level height rises will commence
starting Monday as a strong upper level ridge pokes up across the
Plains. Dry weather and a warming trend are still expected from
Monday through at least Wednesday. After below normal
temperatures to start the week, we should see near normal
temperatures as we get towards next Wednesday or Thursday.

Global models and ensembles indicate (to varying degrees) that
the northern extent of that ridge will begin to get flattened by
next Thursday or Friday. This would put us in a southwest flow
aloft with perhaps increasing rain chances.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 610 AM CDT Fri May 15 2020

A large area of rain and embedded thunderstorms will persist this
morning across southern Missouri. MVFR and brief IFR can be
expected with any thunderstorms.

The coverage of showers and thunderstorms should then diminish by
early this afternoon. However, scattered storms will still be
possible from late this afternoon into tonight.

Surface winds will be gusty and erratic around storms. Otherwise,
prevailing south winds are expected once we get past mid-morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Flash Flood Watch until noon CDT today for MOZ066-077>079-088-
     089-093-094-101-102.

KS...Flash Flood Watch until noon CDT today for KSZ073-097-101.

&&

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Schaumann

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Springfield MO
739 AM CDT Fri May 15 2020

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-161245-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
739 AM CDT Fri May 15 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Limited hail risk.
  Limited thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Elevated flooding risk.
  Elevated lightning risk.

DISCUSSION...

A large area of showers and embedded thunderstorms will persist
this morning across southern Missouri and southeastern Kansas.
Locally heavy rainfall may lead to flash flooding, especially
over western Missouri and extreme southeastern Kansas. A few
storms may also produce hail to the size of nickels.

Additional thunderstorms will then be possible this afternoon and
tonight. A few strong to severe storms are possible generally
near and south of the Highway 60 corridor. Hail to the size of
quarters and locally damaging wind gusts would be the primary
potential severe weather hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Thunderstorms will then remain possible at times into early
Sunday. There will be a continued risk for flooding through at
least Saturday, especially for locations that receive multiple
rounds of heavy rainfall.

Additional thunderstorms will then be possible towards the end of
next work week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/sitrep

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Schaumann

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
800 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0745 AM     HEAVY RAIN       PLEASANT HOPE           37.46N 93.27W
05/15/2020  M2.24 INCH       POLK               MO   PUBLIC

            24HR RAINFALL TOTAL.CWOP.

&&

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