River Flood Warning 38, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
623 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2020

...Updated for 12Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2020

Morning soundings show a saturated column in the lowest 1 kilometer
of the atmosphere, along with some weak lift. This has manifested
itself in some patchy drizzle. This will linger into the early
morning hours. For the remainder of Sunday, it will mainly be a
cloudy day, with perhaps a few peaks at the sun in the afternoon.
Will still have a cool east to northeast wind throughout the day,
with highs just in the middle 40s, and perhaps reaching 50 across
far southwest Missouri.

Tonight, the evening hours look quiet, but another shortwave will
translate towards the area in the southwest flow aloft with lift
increasing leading to more showers and possibly some isolated
thunderstorms. Lows will be coolest over the eastern Ozarks where
the precipitation will be last to start, with middle 30s there, while
lower 40s will be likely over southwest Missouri and southeast
Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2020

The aforementioned shortwave will continue the showers across the
region on Monday, becoming more scattered in the afternoon. and
perhaps even getting a brief break late Monday night into Tuesday.
That break will not last long though. We will continue in deep
southwest flow aloft, with periodic shortwaves lifting through the
flow resulting in showers and storms at times Tuesday night and
Wednesday. A more potent wave then lifts through the flow towards
the end of the week, with some indications of system becoming
negatively tilted. Will have to watch for increasing severe
potential, especially on Thursday/Thursday evening. In addition,
with multiple rounds of showers occuring through much of next week,
combined with the already saturated soils and high rivers, the
flooding risk will continue to rise. Current indications from
tonight through Friday looks to bring another 1 to 3 inches of rain
to the region. Obviously with some stronger convective elements
possible, this may be on the low side.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 622 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2020

Widespread IFR flight conditions are found
across southwest Missouri this morning, along with some patchy
drizzle. The drizzle will continue through the early morning
hours, while the lower cloud deck will persist through midday,
before rising into the MVFR category this afternoon. There could
be a small window of VFR conditions tonight. However, another
storm system will push into the area late tonight, with showers
pushing into the terminals along with lower ceilings back into
the MVFR category.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...Raberding

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
416 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2020

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-160930-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
416 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Limited flooding risk.
  Limited lightning risk.

DISCUSSION...

  Flooding of some low water crossings will continue today, mainly
  south of Interstate 44.

  Another round of showers and isolated thunderstorms will move
  into the area late tonight. Some cloud to ground lightning strikes
  will be the main threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

  Showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected Monday.
  Additional thunderstorms are then expected from Tuesday night
  through Thursday. There will be a limited risk for flooding during
  this stretch.

  Brisk and gusty winds are expected for next Thursday and
  Friday as a strong storm system moves through the region.
  Gusts over 30 mph appear increasingly likely.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/sitrep

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Raberding