Areal Flood Advisory 21, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
627 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2020

...00Z AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2020

Organized rain showers are quickly coming to an end this afternoon
across south-central Missouri as short wave energy and an upper
level jet streak shift east into the Mid-Mississippi Valley. We
may still continue to see isolated to scattered showers into early
this evening as a 850 mb front moves southeast into southern
Missouri.

We are then mainly looking at dry and cloudy conditions from later
tonight into Sunday. There may be some potential for patchy
drizzle given near saturation in the lowest 1 to 1.5 km of the
atmosphere. However, we are not seeing any areas of focused ascent
at this time. We have gone fairly close to the model blend for
lows tonight with most areas falling into the middle or upper 30s.

While Sunday looks dry, most locations will hang onto cloud cover
for most of the day. For this reason, we have gone on the cooler
side of guidance for expected high temperatures. Highs should
range from the middle to upper 40s. Lower 50s will be possible if
any areas can manage to see a few hours of sun.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2020

The next in a series of systems will impact the region from later
Sunday night into Monday. Models are consistent in depicting low-
level isentropic upglide developing beneath the right-entrance
region of a strengthening upper level jet streak. We should
therefore see more showers and perhaps some isolated thunderstorms
across the region during this time period.

We may again see a brief dry period from later Monday night into
Tuesday before the next system arrives for Tuesday night and
Wednesday. By that time, global models depict a deepening
southwest flow aloft over the region with a surface warm front
lifting north through the area. More showers and thunderstorms are
expected along with a return to warmer temperatures.

Global models and ensembles then depict a stronger storm system
emerging across the region from later Thursday into early Friday.
Additional showers and thunderstorms will be possible with this
system. This will also be a system to watch for strong to severe
thunderstorm potential. With multiple systems expected over the
next week, we will certainly have to watch the hydro situation
closely.

The air mass behind the late week system then looks awfully
chilly, especially when compared to the above normal temperatures
expected from Tuesday through Thursday. Lows in the 20s appear
quite possible as we head into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 544 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2020

IFR conditions are expected at the TAF sites through most of the
period. Fog will be possible at times overnight. Conditions should
begin to improve by Sunday afternoon. Winds will remain out of the
northeast around 10 kts.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Burchfield

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Springfield MO
914 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2020

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-160215-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
914 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Limited flooding risk.

DISCUSSION...

  Flooding of some low water crossings will continue overnight,
  mainly south of Interstate 44.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

  Showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected from Sunday
  night into Monday. Additional thunderstorms are then expected
  from Tuesday night through Thursday. There will be a limited
  risk for flooding during this stretch.

  Brisk and gusty winds are expected for next Thursday and
  Friday as a strong storm system moves through the region.
  Gusts over 30 mph appear increasingly likely.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/sitrep

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Burchfield

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
636 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0626 PM     FLOOD            1 W POTTERSVILLE        36.69N 92.06W
03/14/2020                   HOWELL             MO   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            STATE HIGHWAY K IS CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING AT
            SPRING CREEK.

&&

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
640 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     FLOOD            2 ENE GALLOWAY          37.15N 93.20W
03/14/2020                   GREENE             MO   OTHER FEDERAL

            THE JAMES RIVER EAST OF SPRINGFIELD HAS
            REACHED MINOR FLOOD STAGE, LIKELY FLOODING
            PORTIONS OF S FARM ROAD 193.

&&

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
646 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0445 PM     FLOOD            5 NNW ROCKBRIDGE        36.85N 92.46W
03/14/2020                   DOUGLAS            MO   AMATEUR RADIO

            COUNTY ROAD 335 IS FLOODED AT BRYANT CREEK.

&&

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
730 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0716 PM     FLOOD            2 E ROCKBRIDGE          36.78N 92.37W
03/14/2020                   OZARK              MO   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            STATE HIGHWAY 95 IS CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING
            AT BRYANT CREEK.

&&

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
841 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0836 PM     FLOOD            2 WSW BOSTON            37.40N 94.31W
03/14/2020                   BARTON             MO   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            STATE HIGHWAY 126 IS CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING
            AT THE NORTH FORK SPRING RIVER.

&&

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1007 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0925 PM     FLOOD            1 NE SYCAMORE           36.71N 92.27W
03/14/2020                   OZARK              MO   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            STATE HIGHWAY 181 IS CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING
            AT BRYANT CREEK.

&&

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