River Flood Warning 100, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
657 AM CDT Tue Jun 9 2020

.UPDATE...
Issued at 320 AM CDT Tue Jun 9 2020

GOES 16 IR Satellite imagery depicts the remnants of Cristobal
lifting through southwest Missouri early this morning. A narrow
axis of moderate rainfall has persisted along the HWY 65 corridor
for several hours. Warm cloud processes and high PWATS associated
with the tropical air mass have kept thunderstorm activity to a
minimum this morning. Rainfall estimates from both the Doppler
(dual- pol) and MRMS have indicated 0.5"/hr rates, which
coincides with ground-truth reports received from local gauges.

Rainfall rates are likely slow enough to prevent widespread flash
flooding through this morning, but urban flooding (ponding of
roadways) will likely be an issue in some communities. Otherwise,
we are expecting only slow rises to regional creeks, streams and
rivers. Still, do not let your guard down, as we are anticipating
some creeks and rivers to enter minor flood stage later today.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Tue Jun 9 2020

An extra-tropical system will quickly lift through the region
this morning in response to a robust 500-mb shortwave trough
digging across the Central Plains. Behind the departing tropical
system, a new frontal system associated with the mid-level
shortwave will develop and eject out of the Plains.

The boundary layer will try to rapidly recover by this afternoon,
and it will be characterized by low 70s dewpoints and MLCAPE
values between 3000-3500 J/kg, per the RAP. Effective layer shear
will range between 30-35 kts, and slightly backed winds ahead of
the front will lead to well-humped hodographs, particularly east
of HWY 65. The big limiting factor in storm-development this
afternoon and evening will be dry air. But, should parcels lift
past their LFC, severe storms will become likely with damaging
straight-line winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes possible.
Confidence remains medium/low, and the CAMs ensemble off the
latest HREF certainly does not suggest wide-spread severe storms
along the front, but there's a chance. Perhaps the best chance for
organized storms will be east of HWY 65 this evening.

The other wild card for severe storms will be late this afternoon
along the HWY 54 corridor. There, backed surface winds along the
occlusion of the front could be the focus for a few supercells or
multi-cell clusters. Confidence is medium/low, as dry air will
also be the limiting factor for storm development up there. CAMs
struggle to break out convection here too, but there's a chance
given the thermodynamic environment and strong synoptic lift
associated with the negatively-tilted, mid-level shortwave and
strong convergence along the front.

The other forecasting concern for late this afternoon and evening
will be gusty winds west of the HWY 65 corridor. Gusts between
35-45 MPH will be frequent within the dry slot trailing frontal
passage. A couple 50 MPH gusts cannot be ruled out late tonight.
Therefore, a Wind Advisory is in effect for portions of eastern KS
and western MO from 06z-17z (1AM-12PM) Wednesday.

Temperatures today will again be warm, with highs in the mid-to-
upper 80s. A few 90 degree readings may be possible west of the
I-49 corridor. Meanwhile, temperatures tonight will crash into the
mid-to-upper 50s behind the cold front.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Tue Jun 9 2020

Gusty winds will linger into Wednesday morning, but then quickly
subside as the frontal system lifts toward the Great Lakes region.
Wednesday will be pleasantly cooler in the wake of the cold front.
Highs will top out in the middle 70s with low humidity, while
Wednesday night lows sink into the mid-to-lower 50s.

An extended period of relatively dry conditions is likely by the
middle-to-late parts of the week and into the weekend. This is
thanks to a stubborn 594-mb ridge and associated surface high
pressure that builds over the Southern Plains. A few scattered
thunderstorms cannot be completely ruled out from Thursday-
Saturday afternoons as some humidity and instability return to the
region, but coverage and confidence is too low at this time to
mention in the forecast.

Temperatures by mid-to-late week will be seasonable with highs in
the low 80s and overnight lows near 60.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 641 AM CDT Tue Jun 9 2020

Flight conditions will steadily improve across the regional
terminals this morning as the remnants of Tropical Storm Cristobal
lift northward out of the region. As of 12z, the JLN terminal has
already exhibited VFR conditions, and will likely remain there
through most of the TAF period. Elsewhere at SGF/BBG, MVFR
conditions may linger until 15z; but VFR ceilings are anticipated
before then.

The greatest threat to aviation during this TAF period will be
strong synoptic winds later this afternoon into early Wednesday as
a front pushes through the region. Low-level winds throughout this
period will generally blow from WSW to ENE between 10-20 kts with
gusts between 25-35 kts. Gusts will become more frequent beyond
06z (1 AM) and last into Wednesday morning.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms may be possible along the
front later this afternoon and evening, but confidence is too low
to mention in the TAFs at the moment.

By around 12z Wednesday, some MVFR conditions could nose into the
JLN terminal as wrap-around clouds and some scattered showers move
into the region along the 850-mb front.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Flash Flood Watch until 10 AM CDT this morning for MOZ055>058-
     068>071-079>083-089>092-094>098-102>106.

     Wind Advisory from 1 AM to noon CDT Wednesday for MOZ066-067-077-
     078-088-089-093-094-101-102.

KS...Wind Advisory from 1 AM to noon CDT Wednesday for KSZ073-097-101.

&&

UPDATE...Albano
SHORT TERM...Albano
LONG TERM...Albano
AVIATION...Albano

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
657 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0657 AM     FLOOD            1 NE NEMO               37.89N 93.25W
06/09/2020                   HICKORY            MO   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            EXCESSIVE RAIN CAUSED CRANE CREEK TO FLOOD A
            SECTION OF HIGHWAY D.

&&

DC

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