Special Weather Statement, NWS Blacksburg, VA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
751 PM EDT Fri Aug 7 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will gradually build across the region this
weekend and into the first part of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 745 PM EDT Friday...

Hi-res models continue to indicated isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms north of Route 460 between Roanoke and
Lynchburg through midnight with only isolated coverage elsewhere
across southwest Virginia, northwest North Carolina and
southeast West Virginia. Have adjusted probability of
precipitation for the rest of the evening based on radar and
these model trends. No changes to forecast temperatures needed
at this time.

Water vapor imagery shows an upper level trough extending from
Ontario into the Ohio Valley. This trough is gradually filling
and weakening with time. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
are expected along the leading edge of the trough this evening
from PA/MD into VA/NC. Severe threat appears marginal with 20-30
kt southwesterly mid-level winds providing weak but sufficient
deep-layer shear for some convective organization. The strongest
cells may produce locally gusty/damaging wind gusts.

The shower/storm threat is expected to wane by midnight with
light winds and clearing skies setting stage for another round
of late night fog/stratus. Similar to Friday morning, the
stratus may linger through mid morning Saturday before
dissipating. With the upper trough becoming less discernible
with time, the overall trend this weekend will be for lessening
storm chances and a greater opportunity for drying. High
pressure is forecast to gradually build over the area this
weekend, the increasing subsidence resulting in warming
temperatures...but still typical of early August.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 PM EDT Friday...

The axis of the upper trof will finally push through the Appalachians
and central mid Atlantic region, allowing high pressure at the surface
to start nudging in from the Ohio valley. This will reduce our chances
for showers/thunderstorms considerably with most locations west of the
Blue Ridge looking to remain mainly dry, while locations east of the
Ridge hold on to a chance for scattered showers/storms through the
weekend. But by Monday we start to feel the influence of an upper trof
moving through the Great Lakes region with some short wave energy
approaching from thew west. This will start increasing our chances for
showers/thunderstorms once again as we head into next week.

Temperatures will be on a warming trend into the first part of next
week. Highs on Sunday will generally be in the upper 80s east of the
Ridge with low/mid 80s west. By Monday readings will reach the low/mid
90s east, mid/upper 80s west. Lows will generally be in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Friday...

High pressure remains draped over the southern U.S. through the
forecast period. Meanwhile, the jet stream will continue to remain
locked up north in Canada while a trough finishes pressing through
the Great Lakes Region Tuesday. Some far reaching forcing combined
with SW flow from the high will help pull in a very warm airmass for
Tuesday and Wednesday with summertime like diurnal convection.
Tuesday looks to be the warmest with parts of the Piedmont and
Foothills peaking in the low 90s.

Guidance points to a mid-level disturbance that sets up shop over
the southern Ohio/Tennessee Valley Thursday into Friday that will
slowly traverse across the region until being picked up by a new
trough next weekend. While influence from this system will be far,
it should be able to work with the warm, saturated airmass that will
be in place by this point to help increase the overall drive in
diurnal showers and thunderstorms each afternoon. In turn, the
increased convection and clouds from this will help drive our
temperatures down slightly for the remainder of the work week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 745 PM EDT Friday...

Hi-res models continue to indicated isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms north of Route 460 between Roanoke and
Lynchburg through midnight with only isolated coverage elsewhere
across southwest Virginia, northwest North Carolina and
southeast West Virginia. The thunderstorms near KROA will be
gone by 02Z/10PM and precipitation will take a couple more
hours to reach KLYH, with the most likely time from 02-04Z/10PM
to midnight.

LIFR/IFR is expected within the river valleys after midnight
tonight due to the formation of status and areas of fog. After
the fog/stratus dissipates Saturday morning, expecting mainly
VFR for Saturday afternoon. There is still a slight chance for a
shower/thundershower Saturday afternoon, but the coverage is
expected to be isolated and will first develop right along the
Blue Ridge.

Above average confidence for wind and ceilings.
Average confidence for timing and location of thunderstorms and
visibility with fog overnight and Saturday morning.

Extended Aviation Discussion...

High pressure builds into the weekend with lesser chances of
storms. Pattern should be more typical of summer into Monday
with scattered afternoon/evening storms. Overall VFR outside
storms and late night valley fog.

Low pressure will bring a better threat of storms and MVFR
conditions Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...AMS/PM
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...RR
AVIATION...AMS/PM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
224 PM EDT Fri Aug 7 2020

NCZ004>006-020-VAZ043>047-058-059-080900-
Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Yadkin-Henry-Pittsylvania-Campbell-
Appomattox-Buckingham-Halifax-Charlotte-
224 PM EDT Fri Aug 7 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
northwest North Carolina, central Virginia and south central
Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Thunderstorms will be scattered to numerous again today. Some may
become strong with locally heavy rainfall and flooding possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ001>003-018-019-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-WVZ042>044-507-508-
080900-
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Surry-Watauga-Wilkes-Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Giles-
Wythe-Pulaski-Montgomery-Grayson-Carroll-Floyd-Craig-Alleghany VA-
Bath-Roanoke-Botetourt-Rockbridge-Patrick-Franklin-Bedford-Amherst-
Mercer-Summers-Monroe-Eastern Greenbrier-Western Greenbrier-
224 PM EDT Fri Aug 7 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
northwest North Carolina, central Virginia, south central Virginia,
southwest Virginia, west central Virginia and southeast West
Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Thunderstorms will be scattered to numerous again today. Some may
become strong to severe with isolated wind damage and hail the main
threats. Locally heavy rainfall may also cause flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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