Severe Thunderstorm Warning 168, NWS Blacksburg, VA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
751 PM EDT Fri Aug 7 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will gradually build across the region this
weekend and into the first part of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 745 PM EDT Friday...

Hi-res models continue to indicated isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms north of Route 460 between Roanoke and
Lynchburg through midnight with only isolated coverage elsewhere
across southwest Virginia, northwest North Carolina and
southeast West Virginia. Have adjusted probability of
precipitation for the rest of the evening based on radar and
these model trends. No changes to forecast temperatures needed
at this time.

Water vapor imagery shows an upper level trough extending from
Ontario into the Ohio Valley. This trough is gradually filling
and weakening with time. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
are expected along the leading edge of the trough this evening
from PA/MD into VA/NC. Severe threat appears marginal with 20-30
kt southwesterly mid-level winds providing weak but sufficient
deep-layer shear for some convective organization. The strongest
cells may produce locally gusty/damaging wind gusts.

The shower/storm threat is expected to wane by midnight with
light winds and clearing skies setting stage for another round
of late night fog/stratus. Similar to Friday morning, the
stratus may linger through mid morning Saturday before
dissipating. With the upper trough becoming less discernible
with time, the overall trend this weekend will be for lessening
storm chances and a greater opportunity for drying. High
pressure is forecast to gradually build over the area this
weekend, the increasing subsidence resulting in warming
temperatures...but still typical of early August.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 PM EDT Friday...

The axis of the upper trof will finally push through the Appalachians
and central mid Atlantic region, allowing high pressure at the surface
to start nudging in from the Ohio valley. This will reduce our chances
for showers/thunderstorms considerably with most locations west of the
Blue Ridge looking to remain mainly dry, while locations east of the
Ridge hold on to a chance for scattered showers/storms through the
weekend. But by Monday we start to feel the influence of an upper trof
moving through the Great Lakes region with some short wave energy
approaching from thew west. This will start increasing our chances for
showers/thunderstorms once again as we head into next week.

Temperatures will be on a warming trend into the first part of next
week. Highs on Sunday will generally be in the upper 80s east of the
Ridge with low/mid 80s west. By Monday readings will reach the low/mid
90s east, mid/upper 80s west. Lows will generally be in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Friday...

High pressure remains draped over the southern U.S. through the
forecast period. Meanwhile, the jet stream will continue to remain
locked up north in Canada while a trough finishes pressing through
the Great Lakes Region Tuesday. Some far reaching forcing combined
with SW flow from the high will help pull in a very warm airmass for
Tuesday and Wednesday with summertime like diurnal convection.
Tuesday looks to be the warmest with parts of the Piedmont and
Foothills peaking in the low 90s.

Guidance points to a mid-level disturbance that sets up shop over
the southern Ohio/Tennessee Valley Thursday into Friday that will
slowly traverse across the region until being picked up by a new
trough next weekend. While influence from this system will be far,
it should be able to work with the warm, saturated airmass that will
be in place by this point to help increase the overall drive in
diurnal showers and thunderstorms each afternoon. In turn, the
increased convection and clouds from this will help drive our
temperatures down slightly for the remainder of the work week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 745 PM EDT Friday...

Hi-res models continue to indicated isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms north of Route 460 between Roanoke and
Lynchburg through midnight with only isolated coverage elsewhere
across southwest Virginia, northwest North Carolina and
southeast West Virginia. The thunderstorms near KROA will be
gone by 02Z/10PM and precipitation will take a couple more
hours to reach KLYH, with the most likely time from 02-04Z/10PM
to midnight.

LIFR/IFR is expected within the river valleys after midnight
tonight due to the formation of status and areas of fog. After
the fog/stratus dissipates Saturday morning, expecting mainly
VFR for Saturday afternoon. There is still a slight chance for a
shower/thundershower Saturday afternoon, but the coverage is
expected to be isolated and will first develop right along the
Blue Ridge.

Above average confidence for wind and ceilings.
Average confidence for timing and location of thunderstorms and
visibility with fog overnight and Saturday morning.

Extended Aviation Discussion...

High pressure builds into the weekend with lesser chances of
storms. Pattern should be more typical of summer into Monday
with scattered afternoon/evening storms. Overall VFR outside
storms and late night valley fog.

Low pressure will bring a better threat of storms and MVFR
conditions Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...AMS/PM
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...RR
AVIATION...AMS/PM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
224 PM EDT Fri Aug 7 2020

NCZ004>006-020-VAZ043>047-058-059-080900-
Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Yadkin-Henry-Pittsylvania-Campbell-
Appomattox-Buckingham-Halifax-Charlotte-
224 PM EDT Fri Aug 7 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
northwest North Carolina, central Virginia and south central
Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Thunderstorms will be scattered to numerous again today. Some may
become strong with locally heavy rainfall and flooding possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ001>003-018-019-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-WVZ042>044-507-508-
080900-
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Surry-Watauga-Wilkes-Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Giles-
Wythe-Pulaski-Montgomery-Grayson-Carroll-Floyd-Craig-Alleghany VA-
Bath-Roanoke-Botetourt-Rockbridge-Patrick-Franklin-Bedford-Amherst-
Mercer-Summers-Monroe-Eastern Greenbrier-Western Greenbrier-
224 PM EDT Fri Aug 7 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
northwest North Carolina, central Virginia, south central Virginia,
southwest Virginia, west central Virginia and southeast West
Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Thunderstorms will be scattered to numerous again today. Some may
become strong to severe with isolated wind damage and hail the main
threats. Locally heavy rainfall may also cause flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
408 PM EDT FRI AUG 7 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0334 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 N FLEETWOOD           36.32N 81.52W
08/07/2020                   ASHE               NC   911 CALL CENTER

            MUDSLIDE ON PAUL GOODMAN ROAD. ROAD STILL
            CLOSED AS OF 4PM.

0319 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 NE FLEETWOOD          36.31N 81.51W
08/07/2020                   ASHE               NC   911 CALL CENTER

            FLOODING CLOSED THE INTERSECTION OF WINDY
            HILL ROAD AND 221S. ROADS STILL CLOSED AS OF
            4PM.

0248 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 SSE WEST JEFFERSON    36.38N 81.49W
08/07/2020                   ASHE               NC   911 CALL CENTER

            BEAVER CREEK FLOODED BEAVER CREEK SCHOOL
            ROAD. WATER HAS BEGUN TO RECEDE AS OF 4PM.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
414 PM EDT Fri Aug 7 2020

VAZ012-013-016-072045-
Pulaski-Wythe-Carroll-
414 PM EDT Fri Aug 7 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN
PULASKI...SOUTHEASTERN WYTHE AND NORTHWESTERN CARROLL COUNTIES...

At 413 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Ivanhoe, or 8
miles southwest of Patterson, moving northeast at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Allisonia...
Patterson...
Byllesby...
Draper...
Grahams Forge...
Ivanhoe...
and Coleman Store.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 3672 8096 3684 8106 3704 8078 3686 8058
TIME...MOT...LOC 2013Z 235DEG 26KT 3683 8092

BMG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
458 PM EDT Fri Aug 7 2020

NCZ019-072130-
Wilkes-
458 PM EDT Fri Aug 7 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTH CENTRAL WILKES COUNTY...

At 458 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Wilkesboro
Reservoir, or near Boomer, moving southeast at 10 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
North Wilkesboro...
Wilkesboro...
Boomer...
Cricket...
Wilkesboro Reservoir...
Buck...
and Millers Creek.

LAT...LON 3609 8138 3623 8128 3615 8103 3603 8115
      3603 8118 3604 8120 3603 8122 3603 8127
      3601 8129
TIME...MOT...LOC 2058Z 296DEG 8KT 3612 8125

BMG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
807 PM EDT Fri Aug 7 2020

VAZ024-080045-
Rockbridge-
807 PM EDT Fri Aug 7 2020

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN
ROCKBRIDGE COUNTY...

At 807 PM EDT, strong thunderstorms were clustered over Brownsburg,
or near Rockbridge Baths, moving southeast at 15 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible.

Locations impacted include...
Goshen...
Rockbridge Baths...
Bells Valley...
Fairfield...
Brownsburg...
Vesuvius...
and Cornwall.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 3793 7920 3789 7915 3786 7915 3784 7916
      3782 7916 3780 7917 3779 7919 3779 7921
      3781 7923 3779 7926 3779 7927 3795 7956
      3806 7944
TIME...MOT...LOC 0007Z 303DEG 12KT 3796 7933

BMG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
844 PM EDT Fri Aug 7 2020

VAZ024-035-080130-
Amherst-Rockbridge-
844 PM EDT Fri Aug 7 2020

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN
ROCKBRIDGE AND NORTH CENTRAL AMHERST COUNTIES...

At 844 PM EDT, strong thunderstorms were clustered over Vesuvius, or
10 miles east of Rockbridge Baths, moving southeast at 5 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Rockbridge Baths...
Cornwall...
Alto...
Fairfield...
Oronoco...
Brownsburg...
and Vesuvius.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 3802 7937 3792 7919 3789 7915 3785 7915
      3782 7916 3781 7917 3781 7914 3780 7913
      3771 7925 3792 7951 3803 7941
TIME...MOT...LOC 0044Z 293DEG 6KT 3788 7922

BMG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
853 PM EDT Fri Aug 7 2020

VAZ018-023-080130-
Botetourt-Craig-
853 PM EDT Fri Aug 7 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN CRAIG AND WEST
CENTRAL BOTETOURT COUNTIES...

At 853 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Oriskany,
moving southeast at 5 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Oriskany...
Eagle Rock...
and Fincastle.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 3765 7973 3745 7993 3757 8011 3763 8009
      3763 8008 3764 8007 3766 8003 3765 8002
      3768 7996
TIME...MOT...LOC 0053Z 293DEG 6KT 3759 8000

BMG