Special Weather Statement, NWS Blacksburg, VA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
746 PM EDT Fri Jul 24 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak front will dissipate over the area tonight. High
pressure will cover the region through Monday. A potential
change in the weather pattern arrives on Wednesday with the
passage of a stronger cold front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 745 PM EDT Friday...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are crossing over Virginia
and North Carolina in response to a cold front moving southward.
A few of the thunderstorms have become strong to severe and may
produce damaging winds for the next couple hours. Eventually,
activity will fade by midnight as high pressure builds from the
north. As skies begin to clear, patchy fog could develop by
early Saturday morning in areas that have received notable
rainfall.

Saturday will be somewhat drier and have lowered pops
along/north of U.S. 460 east of the mountains. Should see high
pressure overhead, though inverted trough across the
Appalachians may shape the atmosphere for some coverage in the
afternoon, though with lower pwats and somewhat stabler airmass
not expecting any flooding or severe concerns.

Lows tonight will range from the lower to mid 60s west, to
around 70 east. Highs Saturday will be warmer thanks to more
sunshine, but humidity should be somewhat lower. Highs will
range from the lower 90s east to mid to upper 80s west.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1230 PM EDT Friday...

Departing weak trough over the eastern United States gives way
to broad ridging to the eastern third of the CONUS, with
surface high pressure centered over the Carolinas by Sunday.
Without any true forcing expected over the weekend, expect
isolated to perhaps scattered diurnally driven showers and
storms for the late afternoon and evening. Most of the activity
will be confined to the southern sections of the CWA, especially
along the southern Blue Ridge where some orographic lift may
help to enhance storm development. With increasing 850mb
temperatures and lower chances for clouds/rain to provide
cooling, expect temperatures to once again increase into the low
to mid 90s through Monday, especially for Roanoke and east into
the Piedmont of Virginia and North Carolina.

First of next week, our attention turns to the Ontario region of
Canada where a shortwave trough is expected to be heading
eastward by Monday afternoon. An associated cold front is
expected to stretch from the Great Lakes into the central Plains
Monday night into early Tuesday. This front will continue to
sag south Monday, increasing the chance of rain and
thunderstorms for the middle of next week, while possibly
providing for some cooler temperatures and lower humidity.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 115 PM EDT Friday...

Temperatures will remain above average at least through
Wednesday before an incoming front and upper level trough drop
in. Models and ensemble guidance continue to point to an uptick
in thunderstorm coverage especially during the Tuesday and
Wednesday timeframe. The frontal boundary should push through
the area by Wednesday afternoon and evening before slowly
washing out to the south early Thursday. There still is some
uncertainty on the timing of the front and how far south it
pushes during the midweek period.

Both the European and Canadian show the boundary to our south by
Thursday giving us drier and much more seasonable conditions
compared to the GFS. With the front heading south and a digging
trough, questions remain on precipitation chances for Friday and
Saturday especially with models hinting at the moisture from
what is left of Hanna being pulled our way.

For now we will lean toward the drier side of things late next
week as high pressure digs in from the Great Lakes and Ohio
River Valley. Highest precipitation chances should remain south
of the area.

Forecast confidence in the long range for temperatures and
precipitation is moderate.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 745 PM EDT Friday...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are moving southward across
Virginia and North Carolina. As a result, VCTS remains at LYH
and DAN for a couple more hours. MVFR conditions are possible in
any of the storms. Eventually, the convection should fade by
midnight as high pressure builds from the north. As clouds
decrease later tonight, some MVFR fog could develop for all
sites except ROA. Confidence for IFR fog is highest at BLF, LWB,
and BCB by early Saturday morning.

Any fog will dissipate and give way to VFR conditions before
midday Saturday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms could form
again by the afternoon across the southern Blue Ridge due to
daytime heating and orographical lift, but chances are too low
at any TAF site to mention thunder at this time. Winds should
remain rather light.

Extended Aviation Discussion...

Mainly VFR conditions will continue for Sunday and Monday.
Daytime heating should spark isolated thunderstorms across the
mountains, and there is a potential for early morning fog at LWB
and BCB along with anywhere else that may receive significant
rainfall. Chances of convection will increase by Tuesday and
Wednesday as a cold front arrives from the northwest.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...PW/WP
SHORT TERM...BMG
LONG TERM...ET
AVIATION...PW

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
536 AM EDT Fri Jul 24 2020

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ015>017-032>035-043>047-058-059-250945-
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Surry-Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Watauga-Wilkes-
Yadkin-Grayson-Carroll-Floyd-Patrick-Franklin-Bedford-Amherst-Henry-
Pittsylvania-Campbell-Appomattox-Buckingham-Halifax-Charlotte-
536 AM EDT Fri Jul 24 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
northwest North Carolina, central Virginia, south central Virginia,
southwest Virginia and west central Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon and
evening. Damaging winds are the primary severe weather threat, but
large hail and localized flooding are also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

VAZ007-009>014-018>020-022>024-WVZ042>044-507-508-250945-
Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Giles-Wythe-Pulaski-Montgomery-Craig-
Alleghany VA-Bath-Roanoke-Botetourt-Rockbridge-Mercer-Summers-Monroe-
Eastern Greenbrier-Western Greenbrier-
536 AM EDT Fri Jul 24 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Virginia, west
central Virginia and southeast West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
739 PM EDT FRI JUL 24 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0629 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NW LYNCHBURG CITY     37.44N 79.19W
07/24/2020                   CITY OF LYNCHBURG  VA   911 CALL CENTER

            THE CITY OF LYNCHBURG 911 CENTER REPORTED
            THAT A POWER LINE WAS BLOWN DOWN BY
            THUNDERSTORM WINDS AT THE INTERSECTION OF
            RIVERMONT AVENUE AND LINK ROAD.

&&

16

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
749 PM EDT Fri Jul 24 2020

NCZ005-250045-
Rockingham-
749 PM EDT Fri Jul 24 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT ROCKINGHAM COUNTY...

At 748 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Stoneville,
moving southeast at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Eden...
Reidsville...
Wentworth...
Mayodan...
Madison...
Stoneville...
and Oregon Hill.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 3640 8003 3650 8003 3654 8000 3654 7984
      3648 7961 3625 7977 3625 7979
TIME...MOT...LOC 2348Z 299DEG 16KT 3647 7995

RAB