Severe Thunderstorm Warning 128, NWS Blacksburg, VA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
425 PM EDT Fri Jul 24 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak front will dissipate over the area tonight. High
pressure will cover the region through Monday. A potential
change in the weather pattern arrives on Wednesday with the
passage of a stronger cold front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 425 PM EDT Friday...

Isolated showers are heading southward as seen on radar. Hardly
any lightning has been detected yet so far, but there still
remains a slight chance for thunderstorms this evening as the
activity reaches the Virginia and North Carolina border where
there is a little better instability. Temperatures were also
tweaked slightly upward. Roanoke has already achieved day 24 of
the current 90-degree streak.

Think we will see slightly less coverage tonight as modest
instability tracks southeast, with high pressure approaching the
central Appalachians after midnight.

Saturday will be somewhat drier, and have lowered pops
along/north of U.S. 460 east of the mountains. Should see high
pressure overhead, though inverted trough across the
Appalachians may shape the atmosphere for some coverage in the
afternoon, though with lower pwats and somewhat stabler airmass
not expecting any flooding or severe concerns.

Lows tonight will range from the lower to mid 60s west, to
around 70 east. Highs Saturday will be warmer thanks to more
sunshine, but humidity should be somewhat lower. Highs will
range from the lower 90s east to mid to upper 80s west.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1230 PM EDT Friday...

Departing weak trough over the eastern United States gives way
to broad ridging to the eastern third of the CONUS, with
surface high pressure centered over the Carolinas by Sunday.
Without any true forcing expected over the weekend, expect
isolated to perhaps scattered diurnally driven showers and
storms for the late afternoon and evening. Most of the activity
will be confined to the southern sections of the CWA, especially
along the southern Blue Ridge where some orographic lift may
help to enhance storm development. With increasing 850mb
temperatures and lower chances for clouds/rain to provide
cooling, expect temperatures to once again increase into the low
to mid 90s through Monday, especially for Roanoke and east into
the Piedmont of Virginia and North Carolina.

First of next week, our attention turns to the Ontario region of
Canada where a shortwave trough is expected to be heading
eastward by Monday afternoon. An associated cold front is
expected to stretch from the Great Lakes into the central Plains
Monday night into early Tuesday. This front will continue to
sag south Monday, increasing the chance of rain and
thunderstorms for the middle of next week, while possibly
providing for some cooler temperatures and lower humidity.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 115 PM EDT Friday...

Temperatures will remain above average at least through
Wednesday before an incoming front and upper level trough drop
in. Models and ensemble guidance continue to point to an uptick
in thunderstorm coverage especially during the Tuesday and
Wednesday timeframe. The frontal boundary should push through
the area by Wednesday afternoon and evening before slowly
washing out to the south early Thursday. There still is some
uncertainty on the timing of the front and how far south it
pushes during the midweek period.

Both the European and Canadian show the boundary to our south by
Thursday giving us drier and much more seasonable conditions
compared to the GFS. With the front heading south and a digging
trough, questions remain on precipitation chances for Friday and
Saturday especially with models hinting at the moisture from
what is left of Hanna being pulled our way.

For now we will lean toward the drier side of things late next
week as high pressure digs in from the Great Lakes and Ohio
River Valley. Highest precipitation chances should remain south
of the area.

Forecast confidence in the long range for temperatures and
precipitation is moderate.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 140 PM EDT Friday...

This afternoon upper troughing and the approach of a weak
surface cold front out of the Ohio Valley will combine to spark
thunderstorms. Expect best coverage of storms to be south of
KDAN and east of KLYH. MVFR conditions are likely with any of
the storms, along with heavy rain and gusty winds, otherwise
appears VFR for the afternoon.

Models indicated mid and high clouds exiting the area tonight
behind the troughing. Locations that clear out will have MVFR or
lower fog late, as well as possible MVFR cigs. Extent of IFR or
lower fog will depend on the timing of the clouds in the
evening and where it rains today.

Any fog/low clouds will subside after 12-13z Sat.

Above confidence on ceilings/vsbys/wind and on thunderstorm
timing/coverage.

Extended Aviation Discussion...

Overall mainly VFR weather to continue through early next week.
We will continue to have afternoon and early evening scattered
storms through the period. Sub-VFR conditions are likely in
storms, and there is a potential for late night/early morning
fog at LWB/BCB and perhaps other locations depending on where
there is daily significant rainfall.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...PW/WP
SHORT TERM...BMG
LONG TERM...ET
AVIATION...AMS/WP

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
536 AM EDT Fri Jul 24 2020

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ015>017-032>035-043>047-058-059-250945-
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Surry-Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Watauga-Wilkes-
Yadkin-Grayson-Carroll-Floyd-Patrick-Franklin-Bedford-Amherst-Henry-
Pittsylvania-Campbell-Appomattox-Buckingham-Halifax-Charlotte-
536 AM EDT Fri Jul 24 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
northwest North Carolina, central Virginia, south central Virginia,
southwest Virginia and west central Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon and
evening. Damaging winds are the primary severe weather threat, but
large hail and localized flooding are also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

VAZ007-009>014-018>020-022>024-WVZ042>044-507-508-250945-
Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Giles-Wythe-Pulaski-Montgomery-Craig-
Alleghany VA-Bath-Roanoke-Botetourt-Rockbridge-Mercer-Summers-Monroe-
Eastern Greenbrier-Western Greenbrier-
536 AM EDT Fri Jul 24 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Virginia, west
central Virginia and southeast West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
739 PM EDT FRI JUL 24 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0629 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NW LYNCHBURG CITY     37.44N 79.19W
07/24/2020                   CITY OF LYNCHBURG  VA   911 CALL CENTER

            THE CITY OF LYNCHBURG 911 CENTER REPORTED
            THAT A POWER LINE WAS BLOWN DOWN BY
            THUNDERSTORM WINDS AT THE INTERSECTION OF
            RIVERMONT AVENUE AND LINK ROAD.

&&

16