River Flood Warning 74, NWS Blacksburg, VA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
613 AM EST Thu Nov 12 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Heavy rainfall across the region will gradually come tom an end
as a cold front pushes slowly through the region today. High
pressure then builds in with drier weather expected through the
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
As of 120 AM EST Wednesday...

Heavy rain event continues across the Appalachians and central
mid Atlantic region. Weak frontal boundary will continue to
push slowly eastward today in a moisture rich environment so
anticipate excessive rainfall and flooding will be prevalent
across much of the region, especially east of the Blue Ridge,
through this morning. As the front finally starts to push off to
the east, rain will taper off from west to east and
precipitable water will finally start to decrease this
afternoon. However expect runoff into larger waterways will
continue with flooding along some mainstem rivers expected
through Friday. Lingering showers/drizzle will gradually
dissipate Thursday night with locations from the foothills of
the Blue Ridge westward dry by daybreak Friday.

Temperatures today will be cooler but still above normal with
highs east of the Ridge in the upper 60s and generally around 60
to the west. Behind the front tonight lows will be cooler with
mid/upper 40s and some lower 50s for the foothills of NC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 120 AM EST Thursday...

High pressure should build eastward from the Ohio River Valley into
the Mid Atlantic on Friday as low pressure associated with a cold
front heads further offshore. The resulting pressure gradient
combined with sunshine to promote boundary layer mixing will provide
a breezy day with northwest winds gusting in the 15 to 25 MPH range
during the afternoon. Any lingering shower chances from the morning
should vanish by midday. Temperatures should fall considerably by
Saturday morning due to the drier air, lighter winds, and generally
clear skies as high pressure crosses overhead.

The flow should turn around to the southwest by Saturday as high
pressure heads off the coast and a cold front tracks across the
Mississippi River Valley. Clouds will steadily increase from the
west through the day and into Saturday night. As a result of the
warm air advection and increasing cloudiness, there will be a
rebound in temperatures. The cold front should pass overhead on
Sunday evening, but confidence on any showers is highest west of the
Blue Ridge as limited moisture reaches the Piedmont according to the
models. In the wake of the front, winds will turn to the northwest
and become gusty by Sunday night as temperatures dive again. Some
upslope enhancement in the higher terrain of Greenbrier County may
produce a slight chance of light rain or snow showers.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 250 PM EST Wednesday...

Models continue to show an upper wave of energy crossing
through the northern stream of the jetstream early Sunday
morning. This will drag our next cold front through the region
Sunday into Sunday night. The GFS continues to show a broken
line of precipitation pulling through late Sunday into Monday
morning while the European is a touch quicker by 6 hours and
wetter during the same time range.

Synoptically a large trough looks to move into the area Monday
allowing for breezy conditions as our front fades to the east and
cool high pressure settles in.

With the trough a few pieces of weak energy will roll on through
especially with a northwest component to the wind on both Monday
afternoon and evening as well as on Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning. Some upslope snow showers or flurries may be possible
during this time according to the latest 12z GFS and European model
runs. The overall question is to how much moisture can we fetch off
the lakes to the north and will it win out with strengthening high
pressure overhead. Temperatures look to remain at or slightly above
normal through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 610 AM EST Thursday...

Periods of heavy rain continue to affect TAF sites, but the back
edge is visible on radar and has already cleared KBLF and KLWB.
Expect the rain will continue to push slowly off to the east
with the back edge reaching KROA and KBCB later this morning,
then KLYH and KDAN early this afternoon. However, a backdoor
front will sink through the region behind the rain and keep some
scattered light showers going into this evening, mainly east of
the Blue Ridge. Cigs will be a bit variable but trend to IFR
behind the rain. There are some hints that cigs may perk up late
but this is low confidence so will not show this trend in the
TAFs.

Winds will generally be light, though there may be some
enhanced low level flow east of the Blue Ridge this afternoon
with some low end gusts possible.

.Extended Aviation Discussion...

Models diverge for the weekend with some indication that clearing
will take place as high pressure builds into the north for the
weekend, but maintaining cloudy wet weather along the southeast
Atlantic Coast from the remnants of Eta.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Flash Flood Watch until 11 AM EST this morning for VAZ023-024-
     034-035-045>047-059.
     Flood Watch through this evening for VAZ015>017-022-032-033-
     043-044-058.
NC...Flood Watch through this evening for NCZ001>006-018>020.
WV...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...MBS
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...ET/NF
AVIATION...MBS/VFJ

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
159 AM EST Thu Nov 12 2020

VAZ007-009>014-018>020-WVZ042>044-507-508-131000-
Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Giles-Wythe-Pulaski-Montgomery-Craig-
Alleghany VA-Bath-Mercer-Summers-Monroe-Eastern Greenbrier-
Western Greenbrier-
159 AM EST Thu Nov 12 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Virginia, west
central Virginia and southeast West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Heavy rainfall may produce localized flooding today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ015>017-022-032-033-043-044-058-131000-
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Surry-Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Watauga-Wilkes-
Yadkin-Grayson-Carroll-Floyd-Roanoke-Patrick-Franklin-Henry-
Pittsylvania-Halifax-
159 AM EST Thu Nov 12 2020

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
northwest North Carolina, south central Virginia, southwest
Virginia and west central Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

River flooding will persist through Friday. Otherwise, the
probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

 .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

VAZ023-024-034-035-045>047-059-131000-
Botetourt-Rockbridge-Bedford-Amherst-Campbell-Appomattox-Buckingham-
Charlotte-
159 AM EST Thu Nov 12 2020

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Virginia, south
central Virginia and west central Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

River flooding will persist through Friday. Otherwise, the
probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
622 AM EST THU NOV 12 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0617 AM     FLOOD            4 NW SHAWSVILLE         37.20N 80.32W
11/12/2020                   MONTGOMERY         VA   PUBLIC

            NORTH FORK OF THE ROANOKE RIVER AT LEAST 2-3
            OVER ITS BANKS. DELTA LANE IMPASSABLE.

&&

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