Flash Flood Warning 27, NWS Blacksburg, VA

118 
WGUS71 KRNK 182253
FFSRNK

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
653 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2020

VAC185-190245-
/O.CON.KRNK.FF.W.0027.000000T0000Z-200619T0245Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Tazewell VA-
653 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2020

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1045 PM EDT FOR 
CENTRAL TAZEWELL COUNTY...

At 652 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated showers till producing 
moderate rain across the warned area. From two to three inches of 
rain have already fallen. Flash flooding is likely ongoing.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas, 
         highways, streets and underpasses as well as other drainage 
         and low lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Tazewell...
Gratton...
and Tiptop.

This includes the following streams and drainages...
South Fork Clinch River, Dry Fork, North Fork Clinch River, Bluestone
River and West Fork Plum Creek.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

In hilly terrain there are hundreds of low water crossings which are
potentially dangerous in heavy rain. Do not attempt to cross flooded
roads. Find an alternate route.

When it is safe to do so, please send your reports of flooding,
including mudslides or flooded roads, to the National Weather Service
by calling toll free at 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. Reports and
pictures can also be shared on the National Weather Service
Blacksburg Facebook page and on Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 3721 8145 3717 8139 3712 8141 3709 8155
      3717 8158

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED

$$

SK

693 
WGUS71 KRNK 190053
FFSRNK

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
853 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2020

VAC185-190245-
/O.CON.KRNK.FF.W.0027.000000T0000Z-200619T0245Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Tazewell VA-
853 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2020

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1045 PM EDT FOR 
CENTRAL TAZEWELL COUNTY...

At 851 PM EDT, law enforcement reported flooding is still ongoing 
from earlier heavy rainfall, even though the rain has ended across 
the warned area. Runoff may continue to result in flooding through 
late this evening.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by heavy rain.

SOURCE...Law enforcement.

IMPACT...Flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas, 
         highways, streets and underpasses as well as other drainage 
         and low lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Tazewell...
Gratton...
and Tiptop.

This includes the following streams and drainages...
South Fork Clinch River, Dry Fork, North Fork Clinch River, Bluestone
River and West Fork Plum Creek.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the
dangers of flooding.

When it is safe to do so, please send your reports of flooding,
including mudslides or flooded roads, to the National Weather Service
by calling toll free at 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. Reports and
pictures can also be shared on the National Weather Service
Blacksburg Facebook page and on Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 3721 8145 3717 8139 3712 8141 3709 8155
      3717 8158

FLASH FLOOD...OBSERVED

$$

SK

339 
WGUS71 KRNK 190142
FFSRNK

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
942 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2020

VAC185-190150-
/O.CAN.KRNK.FF.W.0027.000000T0000Z-200619T0245Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Tazewell VA-
942 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2020

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR 
CENTRAL TAZEWELL COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

Law enforcement reports that flood waters have receded along the 
Clicnh River and headwaters. Flooding is no longer expected to pose 
a threat. Please continue to heed any remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 3721 8145 3717 8139 3712 8141 3709 8155
      3717 8158

$$

SK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
224 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will maintain itself over the area into the weekend
before weakening and heading off to the northeast Sunday. This
will keep our region in a wet pattern.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Thursday...

The ever familiar cutoff low continues its northward track and looks
to be over southern OH by Friday evening. Scattered showers are
sprouting up around the area as expected, with the best coverage in
the southern Blue Ridge and in southeastern WV. A few flashes of
lightning are beginning to show up in WV, which makes sense as
CAPE > 1000 J/kg is out that way. Expect convection to become
the dominant precip type as the day progresses, but no one area
has experienced training. Training would be the most likely
scenario for any new flooding impacts today.

As we lose the daytime instability after dusk, storm coverage will
decrease, and then increase again Friday afternoon with the upper
low still helping force showers and storms. Both today and Friday
will be quite similar, a slight warming trend and greater storm
coverage in the afternoon/evening.

Highs look on track for the low to mid 70s today, and just a few
degrees warmer for Friday. Overnight lows tonight should again be
moderated by the widespread cloud coverage and stay in the 60s for
most, perhaps the high 50s in the mountains.

High confidence for temperatures this period, moderate confidence
for precipitation location.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 PM EDT Thursday...

The persistent upper closed low that has lingered over the region will
finally start to open up and exit the region over the weekend. However,
this will be a slow process, leaving the Appalachians and central mid
Atlantic region with a good chance for mainly afternoon/evening showers
and thunderstorms. Locally heavy rainfall remains a possibility with
increased instability compensating for less robust precipitable water
values, and some shear may allow for some organized storm clusters to
enhance rainfall. While the overall threat for severe storms is low
given the environment, trees may still topple over with winds well
below severe criteria since the ground is so wet and the canopy is in
full leaf. By Sunday expect coverage of precipitation will be trending
down as we finally start getting into some ridging aloft.

Temperatures will be slowly warming through the weekend with readings
just about back to seasonal normals by Sunday with generally middle 80s
east of the Blue Ridge and mid 70s/around 80 to the west.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Thursday...

Ensemble guidance indicates the eastern part of the country will see a
broad trof develop as a closed low settles over the Great Lakes region
through the middle of next week. This will combine with high pressure
off the coast to put the Appalachians and central mid Atlantic region
in deep southwesterly flow, resulting in warmer and more humid
conditions more appropriate for early summer. However, a series of weak
short waves will combine with diurnal instability to bring a good
chance for mainly afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms each
day.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Thursday...

Higher ceilings than we've been seeing this week, but conditions
(especially visibility) will vary greatly depending on the location
of and intensity of storms. All sites stay MVFR or lower, with
some potential to dip to IFR with any fog overnight. Thunder is
likely to be in the vicinity of most sites through this evening
with convection already popping up some small single cell
storms near BLF, LWB, and DAN. Expecting that coverage to expand
to BCB, ROA and LYH as the day goes on.

Generally soft winds mostly southerly shifting to westerly
through Friday.
Moderate confidence for ceilings and moderate confidence for
visibilities in this period. High confidence in winds.

Extended Aviation Discussion...

The closed upper low will continue to meander about the central
and southern Appalachians through Friday, finally beginning to
lift slowly to the north by the weekend. As the low weakens,
the threat for prevailing IFR conditions and persistent -RA will
begin to decrease.

Showers and thunderstorms, with MVFR ceilings and visibilities
are expected Saturday into Monday, mainly each afternoon and
evening.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 250 AM EDT Thursday...

4 to as much as 8 inches since Monday has taken the Roanoke
River above flood stage, even reaching moderate stage this
morning at Brookneal. Lesser amounts have kept our other main
stem river below flood stage, but many creeks and streams are
running out of their banks or bankfull, especially in portions
of the New River Valley and James River basin north of Roanoke.

There is a flash flood watch in effect for the Roanoke area as 2
feet of water per last report from Roanoke Emergency officials
continues over the Carvins Cove spillway. This watch was
extended til early this afternoon. With lesser amounts of rain
early this morning, this issue should ease, but will have to
watch again for more rain this afternoon.

Given the high-res models will have to watch for flooding issues
in the New River Valley/NC mountains and Alleghanys again this
afternoon, heading east over the Blue Ridge. However, nature of
the models and the flow in the low levels has shifted more south
such that the Atlantic inflow is cut off, and models are not
really pinpoint one particular area over another for heavy rain
for lengthy periods. So for now a flood/flash flood watch is not
warranted.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PM/WP
NEAR TERM...VFJ
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...VFJ/WP
HYDROLOGY...PM/WP

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
232 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2020

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-
WVZ042>044-507-508-191845-
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Surry-Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Watauga-Wilkes-
Yadkin-Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Giles-Wythe-Pulaski-Montgomery-Grayson-
Carroll-Floyd-Craig-Alleghany VA-Bath-Roanoke-Botetourt-Rockbridge-
Patrick-Franklin-Bedford-Amherst-Henry-Pittsylvania-Campbell-
Appomattox-Buckingham-Halifax-Charlotte-Mercer-Summers-Monroe-
Eastern Greenbrier-Western Greenbrier-
232 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
northwest North Carolina, central Virginia, south central Virginia,
southwest Virginia, west central Virginia and southeast West
Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Showers and some thunderstorms today will bring locally heavy rain,
which could cause isolated flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Showers and thunderstorms Friday and Saturday could bring locally
heavy rain, which could cause isolated flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
433 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2020

VAZ007-182100-
Tazewell-
433 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN TAZEWELL COUNTY...

At 433 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Tazewell,
moving northeast at 5 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Tazewell...
Tiptop...
and Gratton.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 3711 8158 3725 8150 3725 8148 3727 8145
      3727 8142 3719 8128 3718 8126 3717 8128
      3716 8131 3715 8133 3714 8133 3706 8145
TIME...MOT...LOC 2033Z 212DEG 6KT 3712 8148

BMG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
435 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2020

WVZ043-182100-
Summers-
435 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL SUMMERS COUNTY...

At 435 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Pipestem,
moving north at 10 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Hinton...
Pipestem...
Buck...
Bluestone State Park...
Hix...
Bluestone Dam...
and Jumping Branch.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 3771 8072 3750 8087 3751 8098 3769 8098
      3772 8097 3772 8095 3770 8091 3769 8090
      3767 8090 3768 8088 3769 8088 3770 8089
      3773 8090
TIME...MOT...LOC 2035Z 193DEG 10KT 3755 8090

BMG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
445 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2020

VAZ007-009-182115-
Tazewell-Smyth-
445 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTH CENTRAL SMYTH AND
SOUTHEASTERN TAZEWELL COUNTIES...

At 444 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Asberrys, or
near Tazewell. The storm is nearly stationary.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Tazewell...
and Asberrys.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 3714 8158 3711 8137 3705 8140 3704 8143
      3704 8146 3700 8143 3696 8146 3698 8159
TIME...MOT...LOC 2044Z 205DEG 4KT 3703 8151

BMG