Flash Flood Warning 25, NWS Blacksburg, VA

815 
WGUS71 KRNK 180719
FFSRNK

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
319 AM EDT Thu Jun 18 2020

VAC005-580-180728-
/O.CAN.KRNK.FF.W.0025.000000T0000Z-200618T1000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
City of Covington VA-Alleghany VA-
319 AM EDT Thu Jun 18 2020

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR 
ALLEGHANY COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND THE CITY OF COVINGTON
IS CANCELLED...

At 315 AM EDT, Alleghany County dispatch, as well as the city of 
Covington, reported no flooding. Heavy rain has ended and flood 
waters have receded. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a 
threat. Please continue to heed any remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 3795 8002 3791 7990 3789 7988 3788 7983
      3784 7971 3779 7977 3780 7982 3770 7993
      3770 7994 3765 8002 3766 8003 3763 8008
      3765 8013 3777 8025 3778 8021 3779 8023
      3795 8005

$$

WP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
842 PM EDT Wed Jun 17 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure was nearly stationary over the region. This feature
will continue to produce showery weather through the remainder
of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 842 PM EDT Wednesday...

Made adjustments in temperatures and dewpoints for this evening
into Thursday morning, utilizing the latest surface obs,their
trends and blended in the NBM. Modified pops and weather with
latest radar images and blended in a mixture of pops from the
NAM and continuity for tonight. More changes later tonight.

As of 400 PM EDT Wednesday...

More of the same today and Thursday with on and off showers as
a result of the slowly retrograding cutoff low overhead.
Overnight Friday and early Thursday may see some lightening of
the rain coverage, especially towards southwestern VA. Highest
PoPs overnight are expected to be along and north of the I-64
corridor and U.S. 460. Thursday will again have widespread
showers, and with a bit warmer environment and modest
instability, some convection could form up Thursday afternoon
and sound a few claps of thunder.

Carvins Cove dam has 2 feet of water flowing over the spillway,
which is well within the dam's intended capabilities. Stream and
creek flooding has been the most common impact from the rains, and
has been concentrated around the City of Roanoke, southern Botetourt
and western Bedford (3-5 inches in 48 hours). A few evacuations were
reported by the EM in Botetourt. A couple mudslides have been seen
in photos on social media. All of the above has been covered by
areal flood warnings.

Today and tonight's temperatures will be heavily moderated by a
broad blanket of clouds, keeping highs and lows in the 60s. Nudged
up the temps west of the Blue Ridge for today as obs were running
almost 5 degrees warmer than the forecast. Thursday will warm up
into the upper 60s and even the 70s for those in the Piedmont.

Periods of moderate to heavy rainfall have been streaming into
the region from Southside into the Roanoke valley with
significant rainfall in a relatively narrow corridor from
roughly South Boston up through Roanoke. Models suggest this
corridor of rain will become less concentrated this evening
although not confident that it will weaken as much as models
have forecast. Tendency is for deep convection to develop
upstream across the eastern Mid-Atlantic where instability along
coast will likely continue to feed re-development of deep
convection there. This new convection will then get drawn in and
around the cut-off low across our forecast area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 400 PM EDT Wednesday...

Persistent upper low is forecast to meander over the forecast
area through the remainder of the week with models slowly
trending the center of the system northward with time, and
eventually getting kicked out of the region by a northern stream
trough along the Canadian border this weekend. Due to the
persistent conditions will maintain a mostly cloudy forecast
with periodic showers. If there are any peaks of sun, it will
likely self destruct into more cover along with the potential
for embedded thunderstorms. Models will not be able to handle
the specific placement of the precip coverage, thus will use
broad paint brush with respect to POPs and QPF. Temperature will
likely remain cooler than normal until there can be some
sustainable breaks in the overcast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 415 PM EDT Wednesday...

The cutoff low is forecast to gradually weaken and move away
from the area Sunday. The question after that is what takes its
place. The GFS suggest more troughing for next week as a
broad northern stream longwave trough sets up over the eastern
CONUS. The ECMWF on the other hand is more optimistic,
featuring greater ridging. Either way we should trend warmer
just by removing the influence of the cutoff low. The bigger
difference would be the magnitude of warming and daily potential
for precip. For now will entertain more of a diurnal cycle for
precipitation suggesting that most of the activity with the
greatest coverage would be during the afternoon and evening
hours, or the peak heating part of the day. Will also entertain
temperatures back into the 80s. If the ECMWF is correct then
areas east of the Blue Ridge could see temperatures in the 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 737 PM EDT Wednesday...

Poor flying conditions with areas of convections, low clouds and
fog. MVFR conditions with pockets of IFR/LIFR will continue
tonight into Thursday. In general, expect ceilings to drop
overnight for all sites, and see conditions waffle from MVFR
down to LIFR on occasion. Visibilities will largely be driven
by any present rainfall and development of fog. Ceilings will
improve on Thursday morning into Thursday afternoon.

Medium to high confidence in ceilings,visibilities and winds
during the taf period.

Extended Aviation Discussion...

The closed upper low will continue to meander about the central
and southern Appalachians through Friday, finally beginning to
lift slowly to the north by the weekend. As the low weakens,
the threat for prevailing IFR conditions and persistent -RA will
begin to decrease.

Showers and thunderstorms, with MVFR ceilings and visibilities
are expected Saturday into Monday, mainly each afternoon and
evening.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 415 PM EDT Wednesday...

Persistent rain over the Roanoke River basin has resulted in
significant rises along the Roanoke River and its tributaries.
The rain band has essentially targeted this basin in part by the
stationary nature of the upper low which was centered over north
central North Carolina. Until this Low moves (which is only
expected to occur at a snails pace) this sort of pattern will
likely continue. Similar to a tropical system there is a feeder
band north of the Cutoff Low which is connected to a rich
moisture source along the coast. The airmass along the coast of
VA/NC is very unstable with CAPE above 2000 K/KG, PWATs above
1.50 and thermodynamics supportive of deep convection. Once this
deep convection forms it gets turned westward and around the
upper Low...converging on the Blue Ridge, but in a narrow
corridor. The embedded convective elements have been transient,
but due to the high rain rates (near 3 inches an hour) training
of these elements overtime have resulted in mountain rainfall.
Amounts of 3 to 5 inches have been recorded within the Roanoke
River Basin...and based on the forecast pattern to persist...we
will likely be dealing with this through Thursday. As the low
gains latitude, this rain band may begin to impact parts of the
James River Basin.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Flash Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT Thursday for VAZ022.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...KK/MBS
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...KK/VFJ
HYDROLOGY...PM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
253 PM EDT Wed Jun 17 2020

VAZ010>020-023-024-032>035-043>047-058-059-WVZ044-507-181900-
Bland-Giles-Wythe-Pulaski-Montgomery-Grayson-Carroll-Floyd-Craig-
Alleghany VA-Bath-Botetourt-Rockbridge-Patrick-Franklin-Bedford-
Amherst-Henry-Pittsylvania-Campbell-Appomattox-Buckingham-Halifax-
Charlotte-Monroe-Eastern Greenbrier-
253 PM EDT Wed Jun 17 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Virginia, south
central Virginia, southwest Virginia, west central Virginia and
southeast West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Locally heavy rainfall today may lead to flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

VAZ022-181900-
Roanoke-
253 PM EDT Wed Jun 17 2020

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for west central Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

Locally heavy rainfall today may lead to flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009-WVZ042-043-508-181900-
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Surry-Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Watauga-Wilkes-
Yadkin-Tazewell-Smyth-Mercer-Summers-Western Greenbrier-
253 PM EDT Wed Jun 17 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
northwest North Carolina, southwest Virginia and southeast West
Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
640 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     FLASH FLOOD      SOUTH BOSTON            36.70N 78.90W
06/17/2020                   HALIFAX            VA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            HIGH WATER CLOSING BERRY HILL RD.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
715 PM EDT Wed Jun 17 2020

VAZ058-059-180015-
Halifax-Charlotte-
715 PM EDT Wed Jun 17 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CHARLOTTE AND NORTHEASTERN
HALIFAX COUNTIES...

At 715 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Redoak, moving
north at 15 mph.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Keysville...
Charlotte Court House...
Phenix...
Redoak...
Clover...
Drakes Branch...
and Scottsburg.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 3684 7853 3671 7864 3672 7879 3711 7882
      3709 7849 3708 7848
TIME...MOT...LOC 2315Z 183DEG 13KT 3679 7868

KK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
720 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0716 PM     FLOOD            1 SSW CHRISTIANSBURG    37.13N 80.41W
06/17/2020                   MONTGOMERY         VA   911 CALL CENTER

            AT LEAST HALF A DOZEN ROADS WERE SHOWN AS
            CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING ACROSS MONTGOMERY
            COUNTY ON THE VDOT 511 SITE AND THE WARNING
            POINT REPORTED MEADOW CREEK ROAD AND GOLD
            RUSH ROAD BOTH CLOSED.

&&

PC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
802 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0614 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 NE SOUTH BOSTON       36.70N 78.89W
06/17/2020  M7.86 INCH       HALIFAX            VA   PUBLIC

            24 HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
813 PM EDT Wed Jun 17 2020

VAZ058-059-180045-
Halifax-Charlotte-
813 PM EDT Wed Jun 17 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL CHARLOTTE AND
NORTHEASTERN HALIFAX COUNTIES...

At 813 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Clover. The
storm is nearly stationary.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Redoak...
Clover...
Drakes Branch...
Mt Laurel...
Wylliesburg...
and Saxe.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 3686 7852 3676 7860 3677 7879 3702 7880
      3700 7850
TIME...MOT...LOC 0013Z 184DEG 4KT 3686 7870

BMG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
945 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     FLASH FLOOD      HALIFAX                 36.77N 78.93W
06/17/2020                   HALIFAX            VA   911 CALL CENTER

            NUMEROUS REPORTS OF ROADS CLOSED IN HALIFAX,
            SOUTH BOSTON AND VIRGILINA AREA. OLD GRUBBY,
            GRUBBY, COWFOOT, JAMES D HAGAN, AND OLD
            CLUSTER SPRINGS ROADS IMPACTED THE MOST.
            SEVERAL CLOSURES ALONG US 58/501. HUPPS
            MILLS PLAZA ALSO FLOODED OUT ALONG WITH
            TREES FLOATING DOWN THE 3207 PHILPOTT RD. AT
            DOLLAR GENERAL.

&&