Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
300 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop through this
evening. Storms will taper off overnight from west to east as a
weakening front approaches the area. Cooler temperatures will
follow for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 145 PM Friday...

Showers and thunderstorm have rapidly developed with the heat of
the day across most of the area. Do anticipate this trend to
continue ahead of a shortwave that moves across area overnight.
A few strong to severe storms will be possible given the MUCAPE
around 2000-3000 J/kg with dewpoints in the 60s and 70s.
Damaging winds will be the main threat from any storm that does
become severe. More widespread severe is not expected as shear
is marginal.

Storms will subside overnight as daytime heating is lost. By
Saturday, temperatures will return to more normal levels for
this time of year. Any remaining showers will be confined to the
northern mountains as upper system pulls away from the Mid
Atlantic. Given the dry air in place, have decided not to
include any POPs for the daytime.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Friday...

The second half of the weekend appears unsettled as models show
a well defined shortwave crossing the Ohio Valley with a decent
surface wave and cold front progged to enter our region during
peak heating Sunday afternoon. Shear and instability will likely
be sufficient for a severe weather threat and will continue to
highlight that potential in the HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 300 PM Friday...

Models show strong upper level ridge building into the region
although there are some model differences with how fast heights
rise and the amplitude of the ridge. There is also the potential
for convective complexes to mess with temperatures as
shortwaves traverse the ridge. A return to hot temperatures is
likely, but uncertainty abounds and with this in mind, largely
accepted the model blend. This brings a warm up from the low to
mid 80s on Monday into the low to mid 90s by Wednesday. A few
showers and storms will be possible on Monday, and the potential
for storms exists again Wednesday through Friday due to the
aforementioned thunderstorm complex potential.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 145 PM Friday...

Showers and thunderstorms will linger across the entire area
through sunset this evening. Given the scattered nature of these
storms, decided to keep locations with VCTS and storm bases
just above MVFR. Could see any site that experiences these
storms to briefly have lower visibilities with heavy rain and
gusty winds. Otherwise, winds will be out of the southwest from
5 to 10kts.

Storms are expected to subside overnight with the loss of
daytime heating. Skies will be clearing from west to east. By
Saturday morning, VFR conditions will be predominate across the
sites.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of convective occurrence may differ.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions are currently expected at this time.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JB
NEAR TERM...JB
SHORT TERM...ABE
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...JB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Charleston WV
410 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-WVZ005>011-013>020-024>031-
110815-
Greenup-Carter-Boyd-Lawrence KY-Perry-Morgan-Athens-Washington-
Jackson OH-Vinton-Meigs-Gallia-Lawrence OH-Wayne-Cabell-Mason-
Jackson WV-Wood-Pleasants-Tyler-Lincoln-Putnam-Kanawha-Roane-Wirt-
Calhoun-Ritchie-Doddridge-Mingo-Logan-Boone-Clay-Braxton-Gilmer-
Lewis-Harrison-
410 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Kentucky, southeast
Ohio, and portions of central West Virginia, northern West
Virginia, southern West Virginia and western West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Heat indices may flirt with Heat Advisory levels this afternoon.
Heat index values should peak in the upper 90s and may briefly reach
100 degrees.

Thunderstorms are likely to occur this afternoon and early evening.
Many of the storms will have the potential to produce strong wind
gusts. A few storms may briefly become severe.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Thunderstorms may occur Sunday afternoon and evening. Some of the
storms may become strong to severe. The Storm Prediction Center has
indicated there is currently a Marginal Risk for severe weather on
Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

VAZ003-004-WVZ032>034-039-040-515>526-110815-
Dickenson-Buchanan-Taylor-McDowell-Wyoming-Upshur-Barbour-
Northwest Raleigh-Southeast Raleigh-Northwest Fayette-
Southeast Fayette-Northwest Nicholas-Southeast Nicholas-
Northwest Webster-Southeast Webster-Northwest Pocahontas-
Southeast Pocahontas-Northwest Randolph-Southeast Randolph-
410 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Virginia, and
portions of central West Virginia, northeast West Virginia,
northern West Virginia, southeast West Virginia and southern West
Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Thunderstorms may occur this afternoon and evening. Some of the
storms will have the potential to produce strong wind gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Thunderstorms may occur Sunday afternoon and evening. Some of the
storms may become strong to severe. The Storm Prediction Center has
indicated there is currently a Marginal Risk for severe weather on
Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
343 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020

WVZ015-102015-
Kanawha-
343 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN KANAWHA COUNTY...

At 342 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over South
Charleston, or over Charleston, moving northeast at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with this storm.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Locations impacted include...
Charleston, Jefferson, South Charleston, Dunbar, Sissonville, Marmet,
Clendenin, Pinch, Institute, Coal Fork, Elkview and Cross Lanes.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 79 between mile markers 1 and 18.
 Interstate 77 in West Virginia between mile markers 96 and 112.
 Interstate 64 in West Virginia between mile markers 49 and 57.
 West Virginia Turnpike between mile markers 90 and 95.
 Route 119 between mile markers 74 and 80.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall will cause elevated levels on
small creeks and streams, and ponding of water in urban areas,
highways, streets and underpasses, as well as other poor drainage
areas and low lying spots.

LAT...LON 3857 8149 3855 8147 3855 8145 3854 8139
      3836 8128 3822 8164 3822 8167 3842 8180
TIME...MOT...LOC 1942Z 245DEG 21KT 3837 8167

12

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
348 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020

OHZ076-WVZ010-011-102015-
Washington-Pleasants-Tyler-
348 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN WASHINGTON...
NORTHEASTERN PLEASANTS AND NORTHWESTERN TYLER COUNTIES...

At 348 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Sistersville,
or 9 miles northeast of St. Marys, moving northeast at 15 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with this storm.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Locations impacted include...
Paden City, Sistersville, Matamoras, Friendly, Fly, Arvilla, Point
Lookout and New Matamoras.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 3958 8089 3960 8085 3959 8085 3958 8083
      3939 8103 3948 8123 3958 8118 3957 8104
      3954 8104 3961 8095
TIME...MOT...LOC 1948Z 210DEG 15KT 3951 8109

12

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
349 PM EDT FRI JUL 10 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0324 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WASHINGTON              39.24N  81.67W
07/10/2020                   WOOD               WV   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SEVERAL SMALL TREES BLOWN DOWN

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX2001062

JP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
350 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020

OHZ067-076-102015-
Washington-Morgan-
350 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WESTERN WASHINGTON AND
SOUTHEASTERN MORGAN COUNTIES...

At 350 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 8 miles south of
Beverly, moving northeast at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with this storm.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Locations impacted include...
Marietta, Beverly, Lowell, Macksburg, Lower Salem, Fleming, Hackney
and Devola.

This includes Interstate 77 in Ohio between mile markers 3 and 17.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 3967 8164 3966 8159 3959 8158 3958 8148
      3964 8147 3965 8145 3963 8145 3963 8142
      3960 8139 3960 8136 3956 8127 3931 8161
      3945 8186 3969 8164
TIME...MOT...LOC 1950Z 216DEG 18KT 3943 8165

12