Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
300 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop through this
evening. Storms will taper off overnight from west to east as a
weakening front approaches the area. Cooler temperatures will
follow for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 145 PM Friday...

Showers and thunderstorm have rapidly developed with the heat of
the day across most of the area. Do anticipate this trend to
continue ahead of a shortwave that moves across area overnight.
A few strong to severe storms will be possible given the MUCAPE
around 2000-3000 J/kg with dewpoints in the 60s and 70s.
Damaging winds will be the main threat from any storm that does
become severe. More widespread severe is not expected as shear
is marginal.

Storms will subside overnight as daytime heating is lost. By
Saturday, temperatures will return to more normal levels for
this time of year. Any remaining showers will be confined to the
northern mountains as upper system pulls away from the Mid
Atlantic. Given the dry air in place, have decided not to
include any POPs for the daytime.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Friday...

The second half of the weekend appears unsettled as models show
a well defined shortwave crossing the Ohio Valley with a decent
surface wave and cold front progged to enter our region during
peak heating Sunday afternoon. Shear and instability will likely
be sufficient for a severe weather threat and will continue to
highlight that potential in the HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 300 PM Friday...

Models show strong upper level ridge building into the region
although there are some model differences with how fast heights
rise and the amplitude of the ridge. There is also the potential
for convective complexes to mess with temperatures as
shortwaves traverse the ridge. A return to hot temperatures is
likely, but uncertainty abounds and with this in mind, largely
accepted the model blend. This brings a warm up from the low to
mid 80s on Monday into the low to mid 90s by Wednesday. A few
showers and storms will be possible on Monday, and the potential
for storms exists again Wednesday through Friday due to the
aforementioned thunderstorm complex potential.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 145 PM Friday...

Showers and thunderstorms will linger across the entire area
through sunset this evening. Given the scattered nature of these
storms, decided to keep locations with VCTS and storm bases
just above MVFR. Could see any site that experiences these
storms to briefly have lower visibilities with heavy rain and
gusty winds. Otherwise, winds will be out of the southwest from
5 to 10kts.

Storms are expected to subside overnight with the loss of
daytime heating. Skies will be clearing from west to east. By
Saturday morning, VFR conditions will be predominate across the
sites.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of convective occurrence may differ.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions are currently expected at this time.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JB
NEAR TERM...JB
SHORT TERM...ABE
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...JB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Charleston WV
410 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-WVZ005>011-013>020-024>031-
110815-
Greenup-Carter-Boyd-Lawrence KY-Perry-Morgan-Athens-Washington-
Jackson OH-Vinton-Meigs-Gallia-Lawrence OH-Wayne-Cabell-Mason-
Jackson WV-Wood-Pleasants-Tyler-Lincoln-Putnam-Kanawha-Roane-Wirt-
Calhoun-Ritchie-Doddridge-Mingo-Logan-Boone-Clay-Braxton-Gilmer-
Lewis-Harrison-
410 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Kentucky, southeast
Ohio, and portions of central West Virginia, northern West
Virginia, southern West Virginia and western West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Heat indices may flirt with Heat Advisory levels this afternoon.
Heat index values should peak in the upper 90s and may briefly reach
100 degrees.

Thunderstorms are likely to occur this afternoon and early evening.
Many of the storms will have the potential to produce strong wind
gusts. A few storms may briefly become severe.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Thunderstorms may occur Sunday afternoon and evening. Some of the
storms may become strong to severe. The Storm Prediction Center has
indicated there is currently a Marginal Risk for severe weather on
Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

VAZ003-004-WVZ032>034-039-040-515>526-110815-
Dickenson-Buchanan-Taylor-McDowell-Wyoming-Upshur-Barbour-
Northwest Raleigh-Southeast Raleigh-Northwest Fayette-
Southeast Fayette-Northwest Nicholas-Southeast Nicholas-
Northwest Webster-Southeast Webster-Northwest Pocahontas-
Southeast Pocahontas-Northwest Randolph-Southeast Randolph-
410 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Virginia, and
portions of central West Virginia, northeast West Virginia,
northern West Virginia, southeast West Virginia and southern West
Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Thunderstorms may occur this afternoon and evening. Some of the
storms will have the potential to produce strong wind gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Thunderstorms may occur Sunday afternoon and evening. Some of the
storms may become strong to severe. The Storm Prediction Center has
indicated there is currently a Marginal Risk for severe weather on
Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

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