Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
805 PM EDT Wed Jun 10 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front approaches from the west, resulting in
thunderstorm chances through tonight. High pressure and cooler
conditions on Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 800 PM Wednesday...

Strong to severe thunderstorms have now arrived along the
western flank of the forecast area. Tweaked sky conditions and
POPs to reflect current conditions along the line of convection,
and will be keeping a close eye on it over the next few hours
for future adjustments.

As of 225 PM Wednesday...

Convection has already begun to develop along the mountains this
afternoon where enough lift is being generated within a moisture
rich and unstable environment. As the afternoon progresses,
convection is expected to spread further west into the CWA as
this area receives greater forcing within the pre-frontal
environment of an approaching cold front. During this time, any
thunderstorms that develop have the potential to become strong
or severe.

This evening into tonight, a line of convection should sweep
through the CWA from west to east. This line will likely
coincide with the cold front passage. While wind should be the
primary threat, isolated hail and the possibility of a tornado
can't be ruled out.

Excluding the mountains, heat index values are expected to once
again reach upper 90s with isolated instances of 100 possible.
Currently have an SPS out for the afternoon, as temperatures
will likely fall short of Heat Advisory criteria.

Temperatures should fall into the 60s overnight (50s for the
mountains) following the cold front passage. Thursday's highs
are forecast in the upper 70s to low 80s (60s to 70s in the
higher elevations).

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 236 PM Wednesday...

Surface high pressure should be in control of the weather across our
region through the period.  An upper level trof will dig southeast
with several models indicating an upper low will develop to our
north.

As a result, expect any convection should be limited to our northern
counties during the afternoon and evening hours on Saturday.

Guidance suggests there will be a cooling trend with temperatures
across the lowlands generally in the lower 80s on Friday with
readings on Saturday in the mid 70s to around 80 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 236 PM Wednesday...

Surface high pressure should remain in control of the weather across
our region through the period.  The long range models indicate we
will remain under the influence of an upper trough or possibly an
upper closed low.

Expect a chance of showers and thunderstorms will prevail each
afternoon and evening.

Daytime temperatures should slowly rise each day with readings on
Tuesday near normal and slightly above normal by Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 800 PM Wednesday...

Line of convection associated with a cold front is now in the
vicinity of our western terminals at the time of writing. This
line upstream of the region has been capable of producing quick
reductions to IFR vsbys and wind gusts on the upwards of 40 kts
or greater. Elected to include TEMPO groups for HTS, PKB, and
CRW by best estimation of time of arrival for the next several
hours, noting both the increased winds and lowered vsbys. As the
line continues its eastward progression, the lack of diurnal
heating should taper down the threat for strong to severe
storms. This downward trend will reach our eastern airspace
closer to midnight, so maintained a SHRA VCTS combination in the
TAFs with potential need for amendments if vsbys look to be
degraded.

Showers and storms conclude Thursday morning with high pressure
building in its wake. Before the widespread return to VFR,
however, expect a brief period of MVFR ceilings behind the
frontal passage near dawn. For the final few hours of the
current TAF period, all terminals will return to VFR conditions
with light westerly flow.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of brief flight restrictions with
convection may vary for this evening.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            THU 06/11/20
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions expected at this time.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JSH
NEAR TERM...MEK/JLB
SHORT TERM...JSH
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...MEK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Charleston WV
658 PM EDT Wed Jun 10 2020

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-WVZ005>011-013>020-027>031-
112300-
Greenup-Carter-Boyd-Lawrence KY-Perry-Morgan-Athens-Washington-
Jackson OH-Vinton-Meigs-Gallia-Lawrence OH-Wayne-Cabell-Mason-
Jackson WV-Wood-Pleasants-Tyler-Lincoln-Putnam-Kanawha-Roane-Wirt-
Calhoun-Ritchie-Doddridge-Clay-Braxton-Gilmer-Lewis-Harrison-
658 PM EDT Wed Jun 10 2020

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 279 IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EDT THURSDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Kentucky, southeast
Ohio, and portions of central West Virginia, northern West
Virginia, southern West Virginia and western West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

Scattered thunderstorms may occur this afternoon, followed by a line
of storms this evening and tonight. The main severe weather threats will
be strong wind gusts. However, an isolated tornado may also occur.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

WVZ024>026-032-034-039-040-515-517-519>523-525-526-112300-
Mingo-Logan-Boone-Taylor-Wyoming-Upshur-Barbour-Northwest Raleigh-
Northwest Fayette-Northwest Nicholas-Southeast Nicholas-
Northwest Webster-Southeast Webster-Northwest Pocahontas-
Northwest Randolph-Southeast Randolph-
658 PM EDT Wed Jun 10 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central West
Virginia, northeast West Virginia, northern West Virginia,
southeast West Virginia and southern West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms may occur this afternoon, followed by a line
of storms this evening and tonight. A Slight Risk of severe weather
exists, indicating that scattered severe storms may occur. The main
severe weather threats today will be strong wind gusts. However, an
isolated tornado may also occur.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

VAZ003-004-WVZ033-516-518-524-112300-
Dickenson-Buchanan-McDowell-Southeast Raleigh-Southeast Fayette-
Southeast Pocahontas-
658 PM EDT Wed Jun 10 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Virginia, and
portions of northeast West Virginia, southeast West Virginia and
southern West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms may occur this afternoon, followed by a line
of storms this evening and tonight. A Marginal Risk of severe
weather exists, indicating that isolated severe storms may occur.
The main severe weather threats today will be strong wind gusts and
hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
852 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0822 PM     TSTM WND DMG     JACKSON                 39.05N  82.63W
06/10/2020                   JACKSON            OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN ACROSS THE CITY OF JACKSON OH.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX2000990

ROCHE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
913 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0910 PM     TSTM WND GST     NEW HAVEN               38.99N  81.97W
06/10/2020  M55 MPH          MASON              WV   TRAINED SPOTTER

            55 MPH WIND GUST REPORTED ALONG WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN
            AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX2000991

ROCHE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
919 PM EDT Wed Jun 10 2020

OHZ085-WVZ006>008-014-110145-
Meigs-Jackson-Mason-Cabell-Putnam-
919 PM EDT Wed Jun 10 2020

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN MEIGS...
MASON...NORTHEASTERN CABELL...NORTHERN PUTNAM AND JACKSON COUNTIES...

At 919 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from near Milton to 9 miles northwest of
Buffalo to 8 miles south of Racine. Movement was east at 40 mph.

Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph are possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Ripley, Ravenswood, Eleanor, Buffalo, Sandyville, Kenna, Leon, Mount
Alto, Statts Mills, Given, Southside, Ashton, Cottageville, Grimms
Landing, Evans, Fraziers Bottom, Leroy, Fairplain and Gay.

This includes Interstate 77 in West Virginia between mile markers 124
and 157.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 100 AM EDT for
southeastern Ohio...and central, western and northwestern West
Virginia.

LAT...LON 3901 8154 3898 8153 3896 8155 3892 8151
      3890 8153 3870 8154 3844 8216 3859 8219
      3862 8217 3868 8219 3888 8195 3905 8164
TIME...MOT...LOC 0119Z 253DEG 35KT 3848 8210 3869 8214 3884 8194

HART

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
920 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0850 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 ENE BURLINGTON        38.42N  82.49W
06/10/2020                   LAWRENCE           OH   PUBLIC

            TREES DOWN.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX2000992

ROCHE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
946 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0933 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 ENE WEST HAMLIN       38.29N  82.17W
06/10/2020                   LINCOLN            WV   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN. ONE TREE FELL ON A VEHICLE ON ROUTE #3 IN
            HAMLIN. NO INJURIES REPORTED.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX2000993

ROCHE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
949 PM EDT Wed Jun 10 2020

VAZ003-004-110230-
Dickenson-Buchanan-
949 PM EDT Wed Jun 10 2020

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT DICKENSON AND BUCHANAN
COUNTIES...

At 949 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from near Big Stone Gap to Sidney. Movement
was northeast at 45 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Clintwood, Grundy, Haysi, Breaks Interstate, Davenport, John
Flannagan Lake, Big Rock, Trammel, Paw Paw, Clinchco, Oakwood, Stacy,
Nora, Vansant, Hurley, McClure and Roseann.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 3702 8248 3713 8255 3720 8256 3727 8235
      3754 8197 3753 8194 3751 8193 3747 8200
      3744 8194 3736 8193 3733 8187 3728 8185
      3727 8177 3718 8182 3713 8192 3713 8199
      3705 8204 3704 8217 3699 8226 3696 8236
TIME...MOT...LOC 0149Z 233DEG 41KT 3689 8278 3764 8236

HART